Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game stole the number-one position on the software sales chart for May, according to data from market research firm NPD. It sold over 1.3 million copies last month, and it has moved over 4 million since it hit the street. I figured Take-Two would be taking the top slot here, but the big question on my mind pertained to how Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system would do in May. After all, the fad has to wear out at some point, right? At some magical juncture, either Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 will displace the Wii and become the top-selling system of the month.
Well, that hasn't happened yet. The Wii sold the most, moving 675,000 systems. That was more than three times the amount of consoles sold by PlayStation 3. And as for the Xbox 360, that came in dead last, moving only 187,000 units. All told, total video-game sales, including hardware and games, increased 37% year-over-year. Yep, video games are still hot.
I'm going to predict that the Wii Fit will be the top-selling game package for the month of June. This thing is flying off the shelves in my area, even at $90 (apparently, high fuel costs aren't hurting Nintendo's clientele). Does that mean that Nintendo might make for a good short-term trade? Maybe, but I'd prefer buying it safely below $60 per share. As of this writing, it's trading well above $60 per share. I continue to hold Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) as my play on video games, and will be keeping Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) in the back of my mind as August approaches, since that will be when the new Madden game arrives in stores. Not sure if that's worthy of a trade yet.
Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.
Was it any surprise that Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) beat expectations for the second quarter? Not a chance. That's because Grand Theft Auto IV stole a lot of hardcore-gamer hearts when it made its eagerly anticipated debut back in April. Net revenues more than doubled to nearly $540 million in Q2, and adjusted net income came in at $1.52 per share. Briefing.com says that the bottom-line results were $0.39 ahead of analyst expectations. Again, we saw this coming.
Take-Two opened Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 platforms with excellent fanfare and brilliant marketing, taking full advantage of the brand equity intrinsic to the title. An impressive 8.5 million discs of the title have been sold so far. Job well done. Plus, BioShock is coming to PlayStation 3 later this year. That's going to be a major franchise in the years to come.
Yet, I will not buy the stock. With the arbitrage battle surrounding Take-Two and its takeover dance with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), I simply am discouraged from stepping in and adding the company to my portfolio. I owned Take-Two at one time, but I'm not interested in getting back in. Besides, the news is out on Grand Theft Auto, so who knows if this would have been much of a trade right now, even if the EA deal wasn't on the table. Great quarter, excellent future guidance, but I just don't see the value of playing the buyout-game here.
Disclosure: I don't own any of these companies, but positions can change at any time.
Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.
The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
Stock futures were mixed early Friday morning with the Nasdaq futures higher, given a boost by a new deal being discussed between Microsoft and Yahoo! Blue chip stock futures were lower after a new forecast the economy will weaken further and unemployment will rise.
U.S. stocks ended Friday little changed after consumer confidence data disappointed Wall Street again and high oil prices dampened the mood. For the week, though all the major indexes posted gains. The Dow industrials rose 1.9% for the week despite being down 0.05% Friday, the S&P 500 rose 2.7% for the week, helped by a 0.13% rise Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.4%, including a 0.19% decline Friday.
At 10:00 a.m. EDT, April leading indicators, a lagging broad, general, indicator of economic activity, is expected to show minimal increase. However, a survey was released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics giving their collective outlook on the U.S. economy. While, according to the survey economists believe the worst of the housing slump and the credit crunch might come to an end this year, a majority of economists now believe the economy is in a recession or on the brink of a recession and therefore they forecast further weakening of the economy and unemployment to continue to rise.
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has launched its important new "Grand Theft Auto IV" franchise and it has done remarkably well. It did not cause a big bump in the firm's stock, which has only moved from $26.62 three weeks ago to $27.10.
The company's one suitor, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), had already taken the shares up from from under $18 with its buyout offer. Most analysts believe that the offer will be extended because Take-Two has resisted a buyout.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, there is a "belief among Take-Two management and some of the company's shareholders that the company deserves a higher offer from EA. "
No matter what Take-Two believes, EA's best move now is probably not to extend the offer but, instead, to walk away. The Take-Two share price would be very likely to move back below $20, which would pressure the company's board to do something to move the share price back up again.
EA's shareholders are ill-served if the company extends its offer. Without a buyer, Take-Two might have to come to the negotiating table and Electronic Arts could get a better deal.
Macy's (NYSE: M), which was forecast to report a loss of a penny a share in the first quarter, said the difficult retail environment hurt sales and it incurred costs from a restructuring. The loss came to $59 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $36 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. (As the numbers are quite fresh, it's possible they include one-time item not yet sorted out and not comparable to analyst expectations.)
John Deere (NYSE: DE) said its second-quarter profit rose 22%. Deere experienced increased demand for its farm equipment, as crop prices kept rising, posting an 18% increase in sales. Profit for the quarter jumped to $763.5 million, or $1.74 per share, a penny below analyst estimates. From premarket early action, it seems shares of DE might start much lower.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) also reported this morning, saying its first quarter loss widened to $151 million as the U.S. housing market worsened. Somehow, though, the results were not as poor as expected and FRE's loss of 66 cents a share beat estimates of a 92 cents a share loss. FRE's shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
Still on earnings, last night Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) reported results. Shares of WFMI are plunging nearly 9% in premarket trading as the organic grocery chain reported a worse-than-forecast 13% profit fall.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) shares are also declining over 2.8% in premarket trading after the suitor of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported a widening quarterly loss and a disappointing outlook.
ERTS is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close today.
ERTS unsolicited $2 billion buyout offer for Take Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) expires on May 16.
ERTS May 55 straddle is priced at $3.55. ERTS June option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations after EPS & TTWO offer expiration.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) needs to demonstrate the strength of its franchises other than Grand Theft Auto in order to fend off a bid from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and this latest bit of news could help it do just that.
In a press release issued on Friday, the company announced that its 2K Games unit had "reached an agreement for BioShock, the universally acclaimed smash-hit video game, to be developed as a feature film by Universal Pictures." Gore Verbinski, director of the Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, will produce and direct the film.
In a clear -- and completely justified -- swipe at critics who characterize the company as a one-trick pony, chairman Strauss Zelnick said that " Our ability to attract a major studio and unparalleled creative team speaks volumes about the strength of our BioShock franchise. It also demonstrates how Take-Two is delivering value based on our strategy of creating and owning our industry's most powerful intellectual property. "
This development certainly plays into Take-Two's argument that it can build value as a stand-alone company. As far as I can tell, none of EA's games have been transformed into Hollywood movies.
That said, Bioshock the movie sounds like a surefire flop to me.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) raised $4 billion for a fund that invests in infrastructure projects, far exceeding the $2.5 billion target it has set. Other than ports, roads and parking lots, governments are spending more and more on infrastructure, especially water, electricity and telecommunications, and funds for such undertakings are greatly required.
Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) today introduced the BlackBerry Bold smartphone. While it was hailed an iPhone killer by some, the company continues to position the BlackBerry as a smartphone for business and heavy users, rather than try to cut into Apple's consumer market. According to RIM's statement, "the BlackBerry Bold is designed to give business professionals and power users unprecedented functionality and performance in an intuitive BlackBerry smartphone. It is the first BlackBerry smartphone to support tri-band HSDPA high-speed networks around the world and comes with integrated GPS and Wi-Fi, as well as a rich set of multimedia capabilities." If you wondered, the QWERTY keyboard is still there, but its most amazing feature is apparently the display. While RIMM is up 1.6% in premarket trading, some think it's in for a bruising.
And meanwhile, of course, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is continuing its push to bring the iPhone worldwide. Singapore Telecommunications Ltd said it and its mobile associates -- Bharti Airtel Ltd, Globe Telecom Inc and Australian unit Optus -- will bring the iPhone to Singapore, India, Australia and the Philippines later this year as they had signed the agreement with Apple. As for the 3G iPhone, it may launch when Steve Jobs gives his keynote address on June 9, the first day of the 2008 World Wide Developers conference. While no announcement was made, Fortune has confirmed the date of the keynote with Apple public relations.
No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.
Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.
I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) announced that its ultra-violent game Grand Theft Auto IV took in $500 million in sales in its first week. According toThe New York Times "The report exceeded the sales expectations of analysts." It would mean that the company pushed out six million copies." As it turned out, estimates were right on the ball.
The market will say that the numbers will make it harder for larger video-game publisher Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to take over Take-Two. The offer sits at $25.74. The stock trades about $1 less than that.
The problem with Wall Street's view of the offer from EA is that it is not unlike Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). The board at the portal may have viewed it as undervalued, but there are no other buyers. The bid went away and Yahoo!'s shares fell. If EA walks, TTWO shares drop.
Take-Two will tell the world that the Grand Theft Auto IV numbers warrant a higher offer from EA. If the larger company has any sense, it will walk away. That would move TTWO shares back to $17 where they traded before the offer. Management at the smaller company will look like a fool.
One of the most brand recognizable names in the world of video games has to be Grand Theft Auto. With its most recent release, Grand Theft Auto 4, the video game maker Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is already dealing with controversy after the city of Chicago "jacked" ads that the company purchased to advertise its newest game release.
Since the first installment of Grand Theft Auto, the game has been one of most discussed video games on the market, largely due to its high level of violence. Video game junkies love it, while parents cringe at the thought of their kids playing the game. The game definitely deals with some seriously taboo subjects; car-jacking, prostitution, cop shootings, drive by shootings, and drunk driving to name a few. But is this really enough to justify the city of Chicago pulling paid ads for the game?
Leading up the current release of Grand Theft Auto 4, Take-Two paid Chicago a reported $300,000 to place ads for the video game on the sides of buses and transit displays for a six week period starting on April 22. After the local Chicago news questioned the city's decision to run the ads, they were quickly pulled. The report questioned the taste of the ads, given the violence that has escalated recently in the city.
So Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is about to have one heck of a week. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet everyone reading this knows that today is launch day for Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 consoles. And I'm sure there were many hardcore fans at Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) and GameStop (NYSE: GME) today, ready with cold-hard-cash in their hands to snag the software; in fact, this article talks about how some stores were open at midnight to satisfy the pent-up demand (remember, this title was delayed). And Douglas McIntyre discussed the game earlier today as being a potential barometer in terms of consumer confidence.
With all this incredible buzz, with the projection that GTA IV might move close to 10 million discs this year, should you be interested in taking on some Take-Two stock for your investment portfolio? The answer for me is no, Take-Two is not a buy here. Remember that we still have the whole arbitrage game going on with it since Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) wants to buy the publisher; also recall that Take-Two is gunning for a higher offer and purposely delayed further negotiations until after the release of GTA IV. I sold my position when the whole buyout offer was made a while ago, and I'm still glad that I did -- for me, the trade was over at that point, and I was happy to simply own my Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares.
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), the troubled video game company, is releasing the new version of its popular game Grand Theft Auto IV. The product is expected to set all-time records for the sales of a single video game title.
The Wall Street Journal writes that one analyst "predicts first-week Grand Theft Auto IV sales could be more than $400 million. On Metacritic.com, which compiles game-review scores from dozens of publications, the PlayStation 3 version of the game had a 100 out of 100 score." In other words, it will sell like hotcakes.
Leaving aside the hostile takeover offer by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to buy Take-Two, the potential sales of the game raise an interesting question.
Consumers pocket books are tight. A larger and larger portion of their income is going to food and gas as the price of those staples rises. Eating out and buying clothes from retailers has clearly dropped off. Many people don't have the money to buy the basics.
In the face of all that, Grand Theft Auto IV is expected to sell extraordinarily well. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s Halo 3 has already set sales records. Game consoles, the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii are all setting sales records.
Either the consumer has a little more money than most analysts think, or the only thing they have money to do is sit for hours in their darkened homes and play video games.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst and the author of Ten Stocks Under $10.
Stock futures were mixed early Friday morning with the Nasdaq futures higher, given a boost by a new deal being discussed between Microsoft and Yahoo! Blue chip stock futures were lower after a new forecast the economy will weaken further and unemployment will rise.
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