Analyst upgrades:

• Natixis expects Alcatel-Lucent's (NYSE: ALU) results to improve in 2H09, driven by the CDMA segment and completion of Lucent integration. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Reduce.
• RBC Capital upgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised its target to $67 from $49. The firm expects a return to "normalized" operating environment driven by Potash and MetCoal.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $69 from $64. The firm cites valuation, potential upside from 2H09 deals, and expectations for positive 2H09 flows for the upgrade.
• Kennametal (NYSE: KMT) coverage was assumed with a Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Cardinal Financial (NASDAQ: CFNL) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• General Maritime (NYSE: GMR) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital.

Julia Boorstin covered an interesting topic over at CNBC.com the other day. The Supreme Court, by electing not to review a case involving Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), essentially said that cable companies such as Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) can pursue digital video recorder (DVR) storage on cable-system servers. By doing this, a perceived barrier to entry for subscribing to DVR has been eliminated: you don't have to deal with a clunky box. Cable should theoretically see an increase in customers who adopt DVR technology if remote storage is exploited.

Well, as Boorstin rightly points out, CBS (NYSE: CBS), Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC, and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Fox do need to worry. These DVR technologies basically translate to a drop in the economic value of advertising. Let's face it: who watches commercials when they don't have to?

Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC - option chain) stock is falling today after company CEO Glenn Britt said at an investor conference that the company is seeing a continued slowdown in subscriber growth. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TWC.

This morning, TWC opened at $30.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $29.96 and a high of $31.26. As of 12:05, TWC is trading at $30.09, down $1.64 (-5.2%). The chart for TWC looks bullish and S&P gives TWC its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.

It's no secret that cable service providers are anxious about the rapid growth of free video on the internet -- and rightly so. The same shows that run on the networks with multiple commercials on Friday night are available the next day on the internet with minimal interruptions.

Therefore, the rumor that the internet video content site Joost.com has attracted the attention of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) seems logical.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Neutral after its channel checks indicated a modest increase in ad spend per client in March. The upgrade is based on early indications that search pricing and ad spend are stabilizing, search volume continuing to grow at a double-digit rate, and Merriman's belief that consensus estimates are now at reasonable levels.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Hold from Sell and raised its price target to $8 from $7.30 following the company's asset sales in March as it believes the financial overhang on the stock has been removed.
  
• Suntrust said Providence Service (NASDAQ: PRSC) has returned to profitability through demand stabilization for social services and cost controls. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• Telmex (NYSE: TMX) was upgraded to Neutral from Undeperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein.
  
• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) was lifted to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) will be announcing earnings for its fourth quarter tomorrow before the market opens. Analysts expect to see the company show earnings of $0.27 per share, which would be slightly lower than the $0.29 a share that the company posted for the same period last year.

Last month the company issued a profit warning, and predicted an operating loss for Q4 and full year 2008. The company stated that it expects to have roughly a $25 billion write down on its cable, publishing and AOL assets. Of this $25 billion, $15 billion is related to its spin off of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) and the remaining $10 billion will be associated with its publishing and AOL division.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)'s CEO Vikram Pandit, chairman Win Bischoff, and board member Robert Rubin will forgo 2008 bonuses. This comes, of course, after the bank lost three-quarters of its market value and got a $45 billion U.S. bailout. Citi shares traded nearly 2% in premarket.

Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA.b) have agreed to settle a dispute over carriage fees. This comes after Viacom threatened TWC with a blackout of its 19 ceable channels, including MTV, Nickelodeon and Comedy Central. With a deal in the works, TWC customers will suffer no blackout. TWC is expected to agree to pay a modest increase in fees to Viacom in the new deal.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been the subject of much news, talk and rumors the past few days. First, on Wednesday, many of its Zune digital music player froze due to the leap year. Then, China sentenced 11 for software piracy. The allegedly sold at least $2 billion worth of bogus Microsoft software. And to top all that, the blogosphere was abuzz as rumors swirled that Microsoft was going to lay off 15,000 or 17% of its staff on January 15, 2009. With the current slowdown in the economy, it's not a stretch to accept Microsoft would initiate some jobs cuts; the question is at what magnitude. MSFT shares were flattish in recent premarket trade despite all the news.

The boobs who watch Comedy Central and MTV on Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) will not have their viewing pleasure interrupted. Viacom (NYSE: VIA), the parent of the two content networks, has come to a financial deal with TWC to keep the programming on the air. Viacom wanted more money for having its shows on the cable system. It looks like it got that additional cash.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Viacom had publicly threatened to pull its networks off Time Warner Cable's system on New Year's Eve in a bid to win higher payments from the cable giant in its negotiation over carriage fees."

Both parties can claim that they walked away with something good. Viacom gets more money for its programming. TWC keeps shows that are appealing to its paid subscribers. That means that what TIme Warner customers pay for the service over time will probably go up to offset the higher fees to Viacom, but not more than a dollar or two a month.

It is too bad that the programming was not taken down. People in front of their TVs, sitting in lounge chairs six or seven hours a day, might have been forced to get up and exercise or volunteer to help the poor. Instead they get the intellectual benefit of watching Beyonce and Britney Spears.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is shaking up top management and may soon announce that Michael Cannon, president of global operations, and Mark Jarvis, Dell's chief marketing officer, will leave their roles, The Wall Street Journal reported. More changes are expected as part of Michael Dell's turnaround plan.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), Ginnie Mae -- The Federal Reserve is increasing its efforts to breathe some life into the ailing housing market and said Tuesday that it will begin purchasing up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities early next month From Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie. In doing so, the government hopes to lower the rates being charged for consumer loans. FNM and FRE shares traded 12.9% and 10% higher in premarket.

LyondellBasell Industries, the world's third-largest private chemical company, may file for bankruptcy protection. The Netherlands-based company has large U.S. operations. It found itself in the midst of a cash crunch as sales plunged, according to The Wall Street Journal. It told lenders it is trying to line up as much as $2 billion in bankruptcy financing. This could put chemical stocks in focus and under pressure.

This post is part of a feature in which he wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.

John Rigas used Adelphia, which at one time was the fifth largest broadcasting and cable TV company, as his personal piggy bank, ultimately driving the company into bankruptcy. He founded the company with his son, Timothy Rigas, who was also charged in the scheme. The Rigases stole $100 million from the company so they could buy luxurious personal residences, trips, and other items to enable them to live a life of luxury on the purse strings of the shareholders.

In 2004, John and Timothy Rigas were found guilty of concealing $2.3 billion in loans, which were hidden in small companies left off Adelphia's books. The SEC charged them with hiding that debt and inflating Adelphia's earnings to meet Wall Street expectations between 1998 and 2002. They also were charged with falsifying company statistics and concealing blatant self-dealing with members of the Rigas family, which had a controlling interest in Adelphia. In 2005, John Rigas was sentenced to 15 years in prison and Timothy Rigas was sentenced to 20 years. At the time of the sentencing John Rigas was 80 years old and Timothy Rigas was 49 years old.

This is the first in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

Over the years I have written numerous stories about eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), which I think has evolved from a must own stock of the new economy to just another company struggling to adapt to the rapidly shifting sand under its feet.

Having made money (bought after bubble burst) and lost money, owning a few remaining shares (sold most at $34), I have been pondering what I would do if I ran the company. My conclusion is that I might break up eBay; at a minimum, I would refocus it.

eBay has had spectacular growth in the past, though less now. It has made highly profitable acquisitions like Pay-Pal and terrible buys like money-losing Skype.

Here are some tidbits for all to cogitate on. In my view, Skype belongs in the hands of a communications company, not an online store. It has millions of users but eBay has not been able to monetize its growth. I think it's time to sell it. The telephone and wireless companies could make much better use of this asset by integrating it into complimentary service bundles.

Analyst upgrades:

• JP Morgan lowered its 2009 North American light vehicle production estimate by 13% to 11.2M and Europe by 10% to 19M. The firm upgraded Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) to Overweight from Neutral citing balance sheet and revenue growth.
  
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Kroger (NYSE: KR) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $32 from $28 as they expect the company's value image to benefit in the current environment.
  
• Leerink upgraded AMAG Pharma (NASDAQ: AMAG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they believe current data is sufficient for some form of first cycle approval of Ferumoxytol.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Watsco (NYSE: WSO) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• UBS upgraded Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underperform from Buy and lowered its target to $9.50 from $23 on the worsening macro environment, which they believe is "overwhelming" the company's ability to drive even flat comps in Q4 and FY09.
  
• Deutsche Bank cut Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) to Hold from Buy and lowered its target to $19 from $28 following the company's worse-than-expected outlook, as they expect shares to be range bound.
  
• Banc of America downgraded the Dry Bulk Shipping sector to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect the "depressed" charter rate environment, tighter credit markets and the weakening macroeconomic outlook. The firm downgraded Britannia Bulk (NYSE: DWT), Navios Maritime (NYSE: NM) and TBS International (NASDAQ: TBSI) to Neutral from Buy.
• Eaton (NYSE: ETN) was lowered to Underperform from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• AXA (NYSE: AXA) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• Aracrus (NYSE: ARA) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) hit a new 52-week low today at $9.03. Until recently, it has performed better than most of the other media conglomerates, but it now faces two difficult questions.

Before current CEO Jeff Bewkes took over, it was assumed that Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) would be spun out. Bewkes managed to get over $9 billion from the transaction. That may have been priced into the shares when he stepped into the top job. The other major assumption of shareholders was that AOL would be repaired or sold. The internet unit has been divided into two pieces. The ISP operations will probably be sold to another internet service company. The fate of AOL remains unknown. There are rumors that it could be sold to Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Because internet display advertising is facing a downturn, sales at AOL will almost certainly suffer in the fourth quarter and into 2009. If Yahoo! is a reasonable proxy, the fact that it has lost half of its market cap this year and has been downgraded by several analysts cannot be good news for AOL.

Advertising weakness is bound to catch up to Time Warner's magazine unit. Print advertising may never recover entirely if the newspaper industry is any guide. Analysts have frequently said that the magazine unit should be sold. It is no longer a growth operation.

TWX cable units, like CNN, which rely on TV ads, are also certain to face an unpleasant if not vicious environment heading into the winter.

Investors in Time Warner are troubled for a simple reason: The company still looks too much like it did last year.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.

Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.

Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.

Other anticipated double-digit earnings gainers scheduled to report this week include brand name apparel maker Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES), mining equipment maker Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG), and chip maker National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM). And Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) is expected to swing to a profit.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is recently up 53 cents to $14.45.

The WSJ reported Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and TWX's AOL unit are in advance discussions on a possible tie up.

TWX is expected to report Q2 EPS on August 6. On May 21, 2007 TWX declared a one-time dividend of $10.9 billion to its stockholders, payable just prior to separation of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC); TWX will receive $9.25 billion of Time Warner Cable's dividend.

TWX call option volume of 25,158 contracts compares to put volume of 20,636 contracts. TWX August option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com