Overnight interest rate continued to rise Wednesday, despite a decision by the major central banks to cut interest rates, as banks continued to hoard cash and charge very high interest for short-term loans on fears the global financial crisis will worsen.

The London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR -- the rate banks charge each other for overnight dollar loans -- increased 144 basis points to 5.38% early Wednesday morning -- a very high rate for short-term cash. It was the second straight day the LIBOR had risen more than 100 basis points.

Overnight rates are key sources of cash for corporations and other larger institutions that use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt, etc. Hence, a very high overnight rate will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce, and thus slow the economy, so says economist Richard Felson.

"We have to force overnight rates lower and encourage banks to lend. High overnight interest rates will discourage companies from conducting typical business and will slow the economy. We've got to stop this bad momentum, eliminate fear, and get the ball rolling in the other direction or GDP will contract more," Felson said.

In an unprecedented, emergency, coordinated move, the Fed and other major central banks cut interest rates Wednesday, in an attempt to prevent the global financial crisis from spreading further and damaging economies.

The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank each lowered their benchmark rates by 50 basis points. The Bank of Japan was not involved in this round of rate cuts, but said it fully supported the action.

Separately, China's central bank also lowered its one-year lending rate by 0.27 percentage points.

"`The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability,'' the banks said in joint statement. "Some easing of global monetary conditions is therefore warranted."

The action brought the Fed's benchmark rate to 1.5%; the ECB's main rate is now 3.75%; Canada's declined to 2.5%; the U.K.'s rate fell to 4.5%; Sweden's rate declined to 4.25%. China's rate fell to 6.93%.

To see the impact of credit market strain in the United States one need not travel farther west than The Bay State.

On Tuesday, Massachusetts, which would rank in the top 100 countries in the world in terms of GDP if ranked as a nation, postponed the sale of $750 million in short-term notes for the second time in two weeks, due to a lack of demand.

However, it should be pointed out that Massachusetts's decision occurred before the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision, announced Tuesday at 9 a.m. EDT, to buy all corporate commercial paper to ease tight credit markets.

Further, although the municipal market differs from the corporate commercial paper market, the Fed's action aimed at easing conditions in the credit market overall, via both guaranteeing debt payment and by moral suasion. Many economists see this as the Fed's attempt to change market psychology via the central bank's enormous financial resources, monetary policy stance, and regulatory powers.

Still, economists caution that the Fed's commercial paper guarantee does not end counterparty risk; it simply eliminates a segment of that counterparty risk. According to economist David H. Wang, more actions by the Fed and U.S. Treasury undoubtedly will be needed to get credit flowing more freely and also reduce perhaps the biggest systemic problem: fear. Commercial paper is about a $1.5 trillion market, while states and local governments borrow about $2.8 trillion, Wang said.

The mood of banks toward banks remains cautious and guarded. The London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR -- the rate banks charge each other for overnight dollar loans -- increased 157 basis points to 3.94% early Tuesday morning.

The Euribor, a similar rate for the euro, rose 22 basis point to 4.37%. However, the Euribor has fallen from Monday's all-time high of 5.35%.

Currency Trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Tuesday overnight interest rates remain at elevated levels mainly due to fear.

"The biggest problem, clearly, is the lack of confidence. There are distressed and bad bonds out there, but it should not be affecting the financial system this much. The reason it has is fear. No one knows who owns what bonds, and no one trusts anyone," Resnick said. "This is the worst condition I've seen in the credit markets in my 20 years of trading." Resnick added that he was presently flat, or had no open currency trading positions.

Resnick said central banks may have to guarantee the assets of creditors to banks and/or provide insurance (credit default swaps) to purchasers of corporate commercial paper to lower overnight interest rates and increase the flow of credit. Or central banks may have to "undertake a large investment in banks to recapitalize them," he said.

A debate on 'How much money does the Fed have?' is premature, several economists told BloggingStocks Monday.

Instead Fed policymakers, in conjunction with the U.S. Treasury, and major central banks in industrialized economies, should and will focus on the huge task at hand: using traditional and new tools to stabilize the financial system. Investors/traders should concentrate on that, as well, the economists say.

'Fight the fire, now; worry about water costs, later'

"Questions regarding the ultimate size of the Fed's resources are not appropriate at this juncture, in my view," Economist David H. Wang said. "The immediate task is to prevent a panic, a panic that could cause this financial crisis to turn into a financial calamity."

"The Fed, ECB [European Central Bank], Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and others must fight the fire that's pretty big right now, and determine the water costs later," Wang added. "They have to maintain liquidity and create new tools and mechanisms that keep overnight credit available to banks, companies and institutions, Otherwise commerce is going to slow down like a car with an oil leak."

Economist Richard Felson agreed with Wang, adding that the Fed and or the U.S Treasury have to make sure corporations and other key institutions - - including state governments - - have adequate overnight and related short-term capital. "They have to prevent the financial crisis from choking off credit to sound companies and of course to the states. The crisis can not be allowed to prevent companies from conducting typical business or states from paying suppliers, making payroll, rolling over debt etc. or the economy will contract further," Felson said. "We've got to stop the momentum and get the ball rolling in the other direction."

Most investors / readers know about inflation -- an increase in the price of a good or service not connected to an improvement.

But fewer know about its flipside -- deflation -- a decline in prices.

Moreover, while inflation is a serious problem -- it erodes purchasing power and makes it hard for businesses to project and plan for costs, moving forward- - deflation is an even bigger menace.

That's because deflation decreases the amount of money flowing to businesses for their products/services, reducing the money needed to keep commercial activity alive and the economy growing.

Deflation: a danger sign

Don't misunderstand: a price cut after a company becomes more-efficient, or implements a 'holiday or promotional' sale, is fine. Deflation is different: it's pervasive price cutting and asset price declines -- falling prices across the product/service spectrum -- usually driven by a lack of consumer / wholesale demand.

Further, if deflation persists it can, you guessed it, lead to lay-offs. Companies and factories with lower revenue and demand for their products / services scale-back production to reduce expenses by laying-off employees. Those laid-off employees then cut expenses as they search for new work assignments by cutting spending, resulting in even lower demand for products, further price cuts, and lower company revenues, and a vicious cycle can ensue.

The frontal assault to check the financial crisis and stem rising fear in credit markets has begun.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Monday doubled its Term Auction Facilities - - its short-term loans provided to banks - - to as much as $900 billion.

"The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,'' the central bank said. The Fed also will begin paying interest on bank reserves.

The Fed added that it and the U.S. Treasury are "consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets."

As part of the action, The Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.

The dollar was mixed early Wednesday as talk that a revised bailout bill is heading toward the U.S. Senate for a vote met with concerns that the U.S. economy will enter a recession regardless.

The dollar rose about one-half cent to $1.4036 versus the euro and three-quarters of a cent to $1.7730 versus the British pound, but fell about three-tenths yen to 106.10 versus Japan's yen.

Raising dollars vs. economic fundamentals

Currency Trader Andrew Resnick said the currency market is in a tug-of-war between raising dollars and U.S. economic fundamentals. "If the U.S. economic fundamentals were the gauge, the dollar would be falling because the U.S. is in poor shape," Resnick said. "But banks are hoarding cash and there's a global trend toward raising dollars, which is bullish for the dollar."

"It may seem strange to want more dollars from the country with the biggest financial and economic problems, but the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and in times of fear there is a flight to safety, which in the currency market is the dollar," Resnick said. He added that he was presently flat or had no open currency trading positions.

The U.S. Congress' rejection of the $700 billion rescue bill generated a predictable response from private banks late Monday night. The cost of borrowing rates surged the most on record as banks were increasingly reluctant to lend to one another.

The London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, rose an astounding 431 basis points to 6.88% Monday night, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Euro Interbank Offered Rate rose to a record 5.05%, reflecting cash hoarding, rising fear, and a breakdown in normal trading.

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks he expects overnight interest rates to remain abnormally high until the U.S. Congress passes a rescue bill, or U.S. and international leaders find another mechanism to get bad assets out of the financial system.

"There's plenty of liquidity in the system. The problem is no one is lending to one another, and that's fear, basically. Until we implement policies to reduce and eliminate fear, the fear problem is going to grow and there will be more bank failures and other failures," Wang said. "There is no end in sight for this crisis until the psychology has been changed."

The U.S Federal Reserve and its companion, major central banks around the world again Monday took actions to keep financial markets liquid amid a credit crunch that has made private banks reluctant to lend critical, short-term funds to each other, and that threatens to slow global growth to a crawl.

The Fed said it increased the size of its dollar swap arrangements to $620 billion from the previously-announced $290 billion. The Fed also increased the size of its liquidity auctions and announced two forward auctions to provide funding over the year-end period.

"These steps are being undertaken to mitigate pressures evident in the term funding markets in the United States and abroad," the Fed said.

"By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Fed actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk," the Fed said.

The nine banks participating in the swap lines are: the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, National Bank of Denmark, Bank of Norway, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Sweden, and the Swiss National Bank.

Economist backs Fed's moves

Economist Richard Felson applauded the Fed's move, given "the unchartered waters the Fed is in, and the political pressure it faces."

"It's liquidity front-and-center, while simultaneously determining with the [U.S.] Treasury which institutions have to be saved, which it can let the private sector dissolve, and at the same time begin the process of buying distressed debt," Felson said. "One goal is lowering the LIBOR spread, and this should help."

Libor-OIS rose 219 basis points Monday, Felson said, "a clear sign banks remain reluctant to lend to each other."

Some investors/readers -- and certainly casual observers of the stock market in towns small and large -- have been perplexed by the turn of events that has led to the current state of affairs in these United States: namely how and why does the U.S. government need to pass a $700 billion bailout/intervention bill to end a financial crisis in the U.S., possibly globally?

While numerous economic, regulatory, and behavioral factors created the conditions that formed the basis for the crisis, economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks that the imminent failure of insurance giant American International Group (NYSE: AIG), in his view, "was the flashpoint at which both [U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson and [U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke realized that a case-by-case, reactive policy would not be adequate to check the building financial storm."

No AIG, massive exposure

Felson pointed out that at least a portion of hedge fund trades -- and the trades of other financial institutions -- are predicated on the assumption that mortgage-backed securities are good/have value, or, if not, that the insurance behind these securities is in force as a result of policies written by AIG. When it became clear that AIG did not have the assets/resources to pay claims, it was necessary for the U.S. government to take over AIG via a $85 billion loan from the U.S. Federal Reserve for warrants for a 79.9% stake in the company.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has agreed to channel $30 billion into the global financial system by establishing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements, also called swap lines, with four more central banks, the Fed announced Wednesday.

The Fed said it established the currency exchange to address "elevated pressures" in dollar funding in the markets. The lines were established with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden), the Danmarks Nationalbank (Denmark), and the Norges Bank (Norway).

The Fed's action occurs after overnight interest rates rose on concern the U.S. Treasury's proposed $700 billion bailout of the financial system will likely encounter revisions and a vote delay in the U.S. Congress.

Economist Richard Felson said he approved of the Fed and other central banks' effort to maintain both liquidity and an adequate flow of dollars in international markets.

"The swap lines will help maintain liquidity and address pressures building in the Asia Pacific region," Felson said. "Among other benefits, this will increase the amount of dollars available for money markets."

Felson added that the Fed and other central banks' goal is to maintain liquidity and "keep the credit creation process in motion." Bank concern about the ability of fellow banks to repay money has periodically led to decreased bank-to-bank lending during the financial crisis. If that tactic continues, it could eliminate a source of credit companies and others need to conduct business, restricting commercial activity.

There is a well-known joke in political science that shows an elected public official sitting in his office, suddenly running to his balcony when he hears a large group of citizens heading off to a rally in the distance. He looks at them and says: "There go my people. I better go out there and lead them."

If the initial analysis of the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion bailout plan is any indicator of public sentiment, it looks like the people may be way ahead of their public officials -- or public officials are way behind -- depending on your perspective.

There's a sense that the people who will pay for the potential bailout/intervention -- typical citizens -- aren't getting enough in return. These critics say the U.S. taxpayer should get an equity stake as collateral for the loans they may make to various banks/companies, and that the taxpayer should also share in the profits, should they occur.

Further, some question why the taxpayer is being used to bailout the very institutions that were factors in the start and growth of the financial crisis in the first place.

Still others argue why the U.S. Treasury is clamoring to secure hundreds of billions of taxpayer money to prop-up financial institutions and isn't doing more to help homeowners refinance their mortgages to lower rates, and in the process prevent foreclosures that were a major factor in the development (and continuation) of the financial crisis.

And others are wondering why CEO/executive salary caps can not be put in place. If a CEO or an executive doesn't want to participate in the bailout program for fear of not getting a large payout or golden parachute, even though it's in the public interest to do so, why should it be in the public interest to grant his/her company a loan?

The U.S. Government's decision Friday to put in place a sweeping program to buy distressed/bad debt to stabilize the financial markets will likely represent the biggest intervention of the federal government into the private sector since The Great Depression of the 1930s. But not everyone is convinced the action is destined to add hundreds of billions to the taxpayer's bill.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts, is chairman of one committee that will review the U.S. Treasury's/U.S. Federal Reserve's plan, the House Financial Services Committee. He believes the plan will cost taxpayers "ultimately not a great deal. The Treasury will buy selectively," Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Frank added that the bad debt will cost "maybe double-figure billions over a few years. The government will sell the assets back," he said, Bloomberg News reported.

Frank's forecast realistic or optimistic?

Is U.S. Rep. Frank's cost estimate realistic or very optimistic? Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday that depends on several factors.

"On the one hand, if we have a two-year period of economic stagnation, the government could end up with hundreds of billions of dollars of extremely-low-grade bonds, bonds that they may only be able to recoup the equivalent of 20 cents or 10 cents on the dollar," Wang said. "Some bonds would be written-off, others reconfigured and perhaps grouped with other investments, with the housing that backs them perhaps converted to other uses."

"On the other hand, if the government intervention broadens the conforming loan category of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as the legislation is expected to do, this will enable more 'somewhat-risky' mortgage bonds to be purchased, providing even more liquidity," Wang said. "And if the FHA [Federal Housing Administration] also receives more money to refinance mortgages at a lower rate, this will help check the high level of foreclosures."

"Under the latter scenario, net government outlays would be considerably less," Wang said. "Essentially, the issue is this: can the government maintain financial market liquidity, ease risky bonds out of the system, and reduce foreclosures with this plan? Not a simple task, but it is possible, over years."

Oil surged back over $100 Friday after traders sensed the U.S. Treasury / U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to stabilize the financial markets by buying-up distressed / bad mortgage debt could very well boost inflation, increasing the attractiveness of oil as an inflation hedge.

Oil rocketed up $4.91 to $102.79 per barrel Friday morning. The other major energy commodities also jumped Friday. Unleaded gasoline rose 9 cents to $2.57 per gallon, heating oil climbed about 10 cents to $2.88 per gallon, and natural gas gained 11 cents to $7.72 per million BTUs.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday slowing global economic growth that's likely to slow the increase in global oil demand is the oil market's long-term concern, but short-term the focus is on inflation.

"I haven't seen the details of the [U.S.] Government's plan yet but there's three ways we can pay for it. We can increase government spending, print money, or sell government bonds," Dietz said. "The first two can increase inflation quickly, the last one, not as quick, but either way, there will be some increase in inflation, which is why traders are buying oil. Inflation now will jockey with global growth concerns to determine the direction of oil's price."