One hears the mantra almost daily, often from friends and relatives:

Aren't stocks cheap? Look at those low P/Es! GE is at $15 a share, Intel below $14, Du Pont at about $27. My goodness, the Dow is down to 8,200. Isn't now a good time to buy stocks?

It is, if you believe the Dow is forming a bottom and/or that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us, and the U.S. economy is set to recover.

However, the alternate viewpoint argues that the Dow has not bottomed, could very well fall another 1,000 points, with panic selling (known as 'capitulation' in Wall Street circles) taking the Dow to levels well below that, at least for a short period of time, possibly longer.

Hence, purchasing shares for the first time now (or adding to existing positions) given the latter scenario would create an immediate 10% loss, or possibly more.

Monitor corporate earnings and job growth

What's a better tack to take concerning when to buy more shares? Monitor U.S. corporate earnings and job growth.

U.S. initial jobless claims dipped during the most-recent reported week, but continuing claims hit a 25-year high -- a statistic that underscores the scope of the nation's job slump.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell 4,000 to 481,000 for the week ended November 1, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised to 485,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 480,000.

However, continuing claims hit a 25-year high, rising 122,000 to 3.84 million for the week ended October 25. In addition, the 4-week moving average remained the same at 477,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions than initial claims, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said rising continuing claims, which have increased about 46% in the past year, underscore job market conditions in the current recession.

"Layoffs proceed, but they're not enormous, so far. But there is no net job growth. In layman's terms, there are very few jobs available, it's hard to find employment once you've been downsized, and the continuing claims total is a direct indicator of that," Dawson said.

U.S. initial jobless claims remained at elevated levels, even after factoring-out the remaining effect of Hurricane Ike in Texas, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose 15,000 to 478,000 for the week ended October 18. However, without hurricane-related claims for Hurricane Ike, filings would have totaled about 466,000. Claims for the previous week were revised to 463,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 470,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average decreased 4,500 to 480,250. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job losses continue to occur at a large and concerning rate, even after taking into consideration the act-of-nature event of Hurricane Ike."

"We have an economy whose fundamentals are definitely not sound. The housing sector remains in a severe slump, financial service layoffs and consolidation obviously will continue, and business investment is low," Dawson said. "Exports are about the only positive data point remaining for the economy, but that is likely to come under pressure, given the tightening of borrowing conditions, globally. The United States has to find or create a growth catalyst, to get this economy moving again."

The U.S. economy lost another 159,000 jobs in September, as companies in the world's largest economy continued to cut expenses to protect profits in the face of the economic slowdown. It was the largest monthly job loss in five years.

However, U.S. Labor Department officials cautioned that the September job loss total was skewed artificially higher by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which resulted in more job losses in the Gulf States region. Further, the unemployment rate remained the same at 6.1% in September, the Labor Department said.

However, an alternate gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, rose to 11% in September from 10.7% in August. The conventional U.S. Labor Department unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers because they are not technically 'seeking work.' Still, some economists argue the discouraged metric is a more-accurate gauge of unemployment, contending that these discouraged workers would accept jobs if the positions were available.

Also, the number of adults working part-time because no full-time job was available increased by 337,000 to 6.1 million in September.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 100,000 jobs in September. September was the U.S. economy's tenth straight monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost a revised 73,000 jobs in August and 67,000 in July. Further, the U.S. economy has now lost 760,000 jobs this year and more than 800,000 since the job slump started in late 2007.

U.S. initial jobless claims remain at elevated levels, even after factoring out the effect of Hurricanes Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricane Ike in Texas, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 497,000 for the week ended September 27 -- the highest level in seven years -- the Labor Department said. Without the hurricane-related claims, initial filings would have totaled about 439,000, the department said. Claims for the previous week were revised 3,000 higher to 496,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 475,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,500 to 474,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job losses continue to occur at a troubling rate, even after taking into consideration the act-of-nature events of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike."

"We have an economy whose fundamentals are definitely not sound. The housing sector remains in a severe slump, financial service layoffs and consolidation obviously will continue, and business investment is low," Dawson said. "Exports are about the only positive data point remaining for the economy, but that too may come under pressure if global growth slows."

Last week it was Hurricane Gustav, this week it's Hurricane Ike.

U.S. initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level in seven years, up 32,000 to 493,000 for the week ended September 20, as Hurricane Ike forced layoffs in Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

The Labor Department said Hurricane Ike claims boosted the above total by about 50,000. Claims for the previous week were revised 16,000 higher to 461,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 445,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 16,000 to 462,500. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss numbers continue to show a U.S. economy that's in anemic condition. The U.S. economy is most certainly in a recession and credit market stress will only worsen commerce conditions."

"We're addressing the financial crisis right now, which is paramount and has to be the order of the day for public officials," Dawson said. "Lawmakers attention must be focused on passing the U.S. Treasury's bailout bill to keep markets liquid, which is an urgent matter. But after that's in place lawmakers should turn their attention to fiscal stimulus. Many people whose jobs were interrupted by Hurricane Ike will be rehired, but many jobs lost in the financial sector will not come back, due to consolidation, and this will push unemployment higher."

Right now, the United States is dealing with the effects of storms -- financial and otherwise.

That was how one economist characterized this week's unemployment report, in which U.S. jobless claims jumped 10,000 to 455,000 for the week ended September 13, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were unrevised at 445,000.

However, the Labor Department cautioned that this week's report was skewed higher by claims filed by residents of Louisiana who were laid-off following Hurricane Gustav.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 440,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 5,000 to 445,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss statistics continue to reveal a U.S. economy that's on the verge of recession or already in one."

"Given, the recent corporate bankruptcies and banking mergers, unemployment levels are expected to rise, both directly from job lay-offs from these firms, and from the decreased business their partners and clients will experience," Dawson said. "Also, with companies becoming more conservative with operations, it's going to become increasing difficult for these workers to find comparable employment in a normal period of time, something public policy leaders need to keep sight of."

Political science empirical research teaches us that when U.S. unemployment is rising and job losses occur over many months, the political party in charge of the White House will have a difficult presidential election. (See: The American Voter, by Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes.)

Federal statisticians will release one more jobs report, the September jobs report in October, but to-date the trend is not one of U.S. economic health.

The U.S. Labor Department announced Friday that the U.S. economy lost another 84,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rising to 6.1% - - a five-year high.

The U.S. economy has now lost 605,000 jobs in 2008 after creating just 1.1 million in 2007. Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the U.S. economy is not growing.

'U.S. economy headed in wrong direction'

"The U.S. economy is in recession. We don't have to wait for two-quarter date to confirm it. These are very bad numbers and the economy is headed in the wrong direction," Wang said. "Electioneering attempts aside, the U.S. economy is, objectively, in bad shape and anyone who fails to see this fails to recognize reality."

U.S. worker productivity increased a revised 2.2% in Q2, below the consensus estimate, as companies eliminated jobs without hurting output, the U.S. Labor Department announced Friday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected productivity to increase 2.7% in Q2. Productivity increased 2.6% in Q1. In the past 12 months, productivity is up 2.8%.

Productivity measures output per hour worked. Economists say rising productivity usually leads to increases in income, as businesses can increase salaries/wages paid without increasing their per unit costs.

Meanwhile, unit Q2 unit labor costs, a statistic adjusted for increases in efficiency, increased 1.3%. However, in the last 12 months labor costs have increased just 1.5%. Labor costs increased 2.2% and 4.7% in Q1 and in Q4 2007, respectively.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected unit labor costs to increase 1.3% in Q2.

Q2 productivity takes some pressure off Fed

Economist Peter Dawson said the adequate Q2 2.2% productivity statistic, although below consensus, will provide argument support for doves on the U.S. Federal Reserve who want to keep interest rates as low as possible to encourage a U.S. economic recovery.

"Productivity is still rising at a healthy pace. That fact, combined will the relatively modest unit labor costs for the second quarter and year, present a picture that inflation is not getting out of control, which is good news for those seeking lower interest rates, and for business executives," Dawson said. "If these productivity and cost trends continue, hawks on the Fed are going to have a hard time making a case for an interest rate increase at the Fed's next meeting."

The U.S. economy lost another 51,000 jobs in June, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday, a figure that suggests the world's largest economy continues to slow, but has not seen -- so far -- the massive job losses that have accompanied previous slowdowns/recessions.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in July -- the highest rate in four years.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 72,000 jobs and the unemployment to remain the same at 5.6% in July.

Further, June was the U.S. economy's sixth straight monthly job loss and brings total job losses in 2008 to 463,000, the Labor Department said.

Not good news, but not horrible, either

Economist Glen Langan took pains to underscore that the July jobs report was not good news, even as he, and perhaps other economists as well, were somewhat relieved that the July jobs report was not a debacle.

"It's by no means a strong report, as it continues to show a difficult job market, but it isn't a totally awful report either," Langan said.

Initial U.S. jobless claims jumped 34,000 to 406,000 for the week ended July 19, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised to 372,000. Further, this week's 406,000 statistic was the highest weekly jobless claims tally since March.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 375,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 4,500 to 382,500. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss statistics continue to reveal an economy that's barely growing, with no job growth, save a few sectors."

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 12 were in: New York, +13,909, California, +9,416, North Carolina, +9,344, Tennessee, +8,522, and Georgia, +7,000. The largest decreases were in: Michigan, -4,571, New Jersey, -1,835, Kentucky, -1,724, Rhode Island, -1,266, and Massachusetts, -919.

Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims decreased 9,000 to 3.107 million from a revised 3.116 million for the week ended July 12, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: A worse-than-expected weekly jobless claims report. While the 4-week moving average dropped to 382,500, it is still an elevated rate, indicative of soft labor market conditions.

U.S. producer prices soared a seasonally-adjusted 1.8% in June, the U.S Labor Department announced Tuesday, as rising energy prices continued to increase wholesale costs at an alarming rate.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the June PPI index to rise 1.4%. Producer prices increased 1.4% in May and 0.2% in April.

The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.2%, the Labor Department said, below the Bloomberg News 0.3% consensus estimate.

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Tuesday the June PPI is another unfortunate data point for the economy, but it's not as bad as it appears. "The report is bad, but not as bad as it could have been. Energy really drove the index higher. If you took out gasoline prices, PPI would be down a half percentage point," Dawson said. "That said, energy prices are still rising at an alarming rate and they're a cost concern for businesses and individuals alike."

June import prices rose 2.6%, the U.S. Labor Department announced Friday, driven higher by rising petroleum prices and a falling dollar.

Excluding the often-volatile petroleum component, June import prices increased 0.8%, the Labor Department said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected June import prices to rise 1.8%. Import prices also rose a revised 2.6% in May; they increased 2.8% in April, and 3.1% in March.

In the last 12 months import prices are up 20.5% -- the biggest year-over-year increase on record, the Labor Department said. It's also a level that historically indicates that U.S. consumer price inflation will trend higher, due to price pressure from foreign goods/services.

Prices for imported petroleum were a major factor in the aforementioned price rise -- up 78.6% in one year.

Meanwhile, U.S. exports prices increased 1% in June, after rising 0.4% in May. Farm export prices increased 2.2%, while non-farm exports increased 0.9%.

Economist David H. Wang said the June import/export price report was yet another negative one for the U.S economy. "The report continues to feature the impact of record-high oil prices, which are boosting inflation just about across the price spectrum," Wang said. "Import prices are making the Fed's [U.S. Federal Reserve's] job of lowering inflation harder. The U.S. needs a substantial, sustained decline in oil prices to get control of inflation."

Initial U.S. jobless claims decreased 58,000 to 346,000 for the week ended July 5, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were unrevised at 404,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 399,000.

Also, the four-week moving average decreased 10,000 to 390,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said investors / traders should not react too favorably to this week's jobless claims picture. "It is a surprisingly good number, but keep in mind it's just one week," Dawson said. "Also, continuing claims are still rising and have been trending higher for more than six months. That stat is more indicative of the soft job conditions the U.S. is currently experiencing."

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 16,000 to 404,000 for the week ended June 28, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

Claims for the previous week were revised 2,000 higher to 388,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 385,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,250 to 390,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said Thursday the jobless claims picture indicates economic conditions are worsening in the United States. "We're now above 400,000 in new claims. This is a sign the economy is stalling. Earlier, we did not see jobless claims as high as in previous slowdowns, but the job slide is accelerating, so in my view GDP will definitely be negative in Q2," Dawson said. "We've got to find a way to jump-start both jobs and demand or this economy will suffer a deeper recession."