MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that a federal judge said that the government had "sufficient evidence" for a jury to conclude that a conspiracy to fraudulently boost the financials of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) began with former CEO Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg. That led to a transaction that artificially inflated AIG's loss reserves.
• Citigroup Incorporated's (NYSE: C) Falcon Strategies fixed income hedge fund is down 75%, the Wall Street Journal reported, bad news for the three U.S. banks that invested in it to help increase returns on employee life insurance. One of the banks, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB), is suing Transamerica Life and Smith Barney, both of whom helped to arrange the investment, and some are now questioning whether Citigroup will be forced to give back some of the investments as they have with individual investors.
• After it stopped offering some mortgages last month because it was swamped by volumes of new applications, the Financial Times reported that First Direct, a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC), has resumed lending to new customers. The bank said it has continued to receive "significant interest" in its mortgages from existing customers.

OTHER PAPERS:

• In an effort to raise capital from shareholders, the Telegraph reported that Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is considering a takeover bid for a rival in the U.S. or UK. Sources believe Barclays may attempt to acquire an investment bank, a struggling bank or a deal in a fast-moving economy. Potential names mentioned include UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH).

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that an alliance of cable, Internet and chip titans will announce plans to invest $3.2B in a company that will deliver Web access for laptops and cellphones using WiMax. The venture, valued at over $12B, includes Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) and Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) and will be backed by Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG).
• According to people familiar with the matter, Robert Verrone, one of the most zealous commercial real-estate lenders during the industry's boom, will leave Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) within the next week, the Wall Street Journal reported.

WEB SITES:

• Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice is probing whether UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) helped clients evade American taxes. In an e-mailed statement, the firm said one senior bank employee was "briefly detained" by authorities.
• Bloomberg also reported that Vallejo, California's city council voted to go into bankruptcy. Officials said that after talks with labor unions failed to win salary concessions from police and fire fighters, the city does not have enough money to pay its bills.
• According to a rumor, TechCrunch reported that the Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) board of directors yesterday authorized Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock, rather than CEO Jerry Yang, to call Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer about re-starting negotiations.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that New York state's attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, has launched an investigation into auction-rate securities and is seeking information from some of Wall Street's biggest institutions including UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER), a person familiar with the matter said.
• According to the Financial Times, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and other investment banks are working on plans to develop a clearing house for the credit derivatives markets. In an attempt to reduce counterparty risk, the banks are trying to develop a system that would only allow institutions with strong capital bases and credible trading histories to clear trades in the credit default swap markets with a central counterparty.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The news that The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (NYSE: RBS) is planning a rights issue of between GBP5B and GBP12B received mixed reviews from British analysts and investors, the Telegraph reported. The analysts expect the bank to cut its dividend.

WEB SITES:

• DigiTimes reported that Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is planning to launch the GeForce 9600 GSO GPU in May to compete with Advanced Micro Devices' (NYSE: AMD) Radeon HD 3830, according to sources at graphics card makers.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Luqman Arnold, the former UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) president forced out in 2001, wants the firm to split its investment bank from the private client bank, and look at selling the investment bank and asset management business, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street".
• Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) bid to acquire Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) has not gained any steam even though executives of the two companies met this week, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Financial Times reported that the landmark merger that created Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) was a "mistake" that failed to benefit the financial services giant's investors, customers and employees, said John Reed, who masterminded the $166B deal with Sandy Weill in 1998. Reed, the former head of Citicorp, has advised Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit at least to consider spin-offs, sources said.

WEB SITES:

• Walgreen Co (NYSE: WAG) is branching out by acquiring two companies that provide health-care services, BusinessWeek reported, following in its competitor CVS Caremark Corporation's (NYSE: CVS) shoes. Some investors are wary of Walgreen's move, but Mark Wiltamuth of Morgan Stanley sees it as a new growth avenue and as a push into services complementary to drugstores.

Where there is fear, there is opportunity. Every day for the past six months some have asked if it was time to get back into investing in the financial sector. I was way too early and now much poorer for it. Whether I am too optimistic about our economic vitality, or just have no fear, or both, is a lingering thought in my mind.

Today marks the first day of a new quarter and there seems to be a lot of good will in the air. This even though UBS AG (NYSR: UBS) announced that it will write off $19 billion. UBS writedowns have reached a staggering $40 billion in the past nine months, the largest reported by any bank to date. As UBS Chairman Marcel Ospel stepped down, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Germany's largest bank, announced similar writedowns of about $4 billion.

Apparently, these losses by foreign banks have made Wall Street traders giddy as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 200 points in early trading. Could this be the bottom? Well, I'm not going to call it -- I have no idea.

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) reported a $11.9 billion quarterly loss.

UBS will write down $19 billion on debt securities, bringing the total to approximately $37 billion over the last nine-months.

Standard & Poors lowered its credit rating on UBS to AA- from AA.

Deutsche Bank raised UBS to Buy.

UBS overall option implied volatility of 82 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MAJOR PAPERS:

• A memo sent by Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) to the company's employees regarding Delta's merger talks with Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) stated that that no "potential transaction meets all [of Delta's] principles." The memo, the Wall Street Journal reported, is seen as a sign that merger talks between Delta and Northwest have stalled.
• A group of 14 hospitals and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a Wall Street trade group, asked the SEC to buy back the debt they had issued, the Wall Street Journal also reported.
• German lender HSH Nordbank has filed a lawsuit against UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) for allegedly maneuvering to saddle the German bank with troubled securities. HSH Nordbank contends that UBS sold it $500M in complex investments, which a UBS hedge fund later used as a receptacle for troubled subprime-mortgage securities, according to the Wall Street Journal.

WEB SITES:

• According to FAO Newsroom, world fertilizer production is expected to outstrip demand over the next five years and will support higher levels of food and biofuel production.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• With a possible coming recession, J.C. Penney Company Inc (NYSE: JCP) CEO Myron "Mike" Ullman is expected to today announce plans to merge the buying and marketing operations for store and online sales and cut up to 200 jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that the warning from UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) that its write downs for 2007 would be $4B higher than forecast is an indicator that other Wall Street banks are still vulnerable to the subprime crisis; Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) may be the most vulnerable to the next wave of write downs.

WEB SITES:

• Merck & Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) and Schering-Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP) perform quite differently, despite jointly marketing Vytorin, Barron's reported. while Merck offers a golden opportunity for bargain hunters, Schering's prospects remain less certain with the company relying on Vytorin for more than one-third of its pretax profits, according to estimates from Lehman Brothers.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) is launching an initiative to reduce proprietary risk taking by its investment banking division, the Financial Times reported. In an internal memo, UBS CEO Marcel Rohner wrote that the bank would cut by 50% the number of its employees in its real estate and securitization division, and move its troubled mortgage investments into a separate unit.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The UK Times reported that British music company EMI Group PLC (OTC: EMIPY) has made a bid for Chrysalis, one of Britain's last big independent music companies.
• Student loan giant SLM Corporation (NYSE: SLM), also known as Sallie Mae, said it would lay off 350 employees, or about 3% of its workers, the Washington Post said.
• France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) CEO Didier Lombard said sales of Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone device are going better than expected in France, the Associated Press reported.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Although Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) would like to merge with either UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) United Airlines or Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA), the company is close to Air France-KLM (NYSE: AKH), and together the two may be able to better shape a deal, the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that recent acquisitions by Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: JAVA) and Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) have suggested factors like a slowing economy could kick the high-tech deals into a "higher gear".
• Following a risk/reward reassessment, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) decided to wind down its Switzerland-based private banking business for rich U.S. clients; the decision was announced internally in late December, but confirmed publicly this week, the Financial Times reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the Economic Times, after the dissolution of a proposed joint venture with Rajesh Exports, Fossil Incorporated (NASDAQ: FOSL), the U.S. fashion accessories giant, is set to enter India on its own.

New York Times op-editorialist Paul Krugman got one right today. And its Floyd Norris points out why the solution to the problem Krugman highlights could be SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Funds). Krugman does not know how much the financial industry's problems will cost and Norris suggests that SWFs -- government investment funds -- are worth between $2 trillion and $15 trillion.

Krugman's right that the Fed's four attempts to reboot the financial system have not worked because they dance around the most fundamental problem -- nobody knows the depth of the financial hole. If I was in charge, I would find out where all the toxic waste is buried and estimate the amount of capital needed to offset the cost of writing it down. In my view, it makes sense to mark the toxic waste to market and to raise capital at the same time.

Norris points out that SWFs could be part of the capital raising solution -- as they have been in the cases of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS). He also suggests two pitfalls of SWFs as a source of capital. First, they are government controlled which could allow the SWFs to use the resulting power over our financial institutions to further their political ends. Second, whenever a new acronym such as SWF emerges in the financial world -- and there have been plenty including Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) and Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) -- Wall Street will find a way to profit from it in the short-term while sticking the long-term costs on someone else.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Royal Dutch Shell Plc's (NYSE: RDS.A) 16.67% stake in the Cossack Pioneer field of Australia's North West Shelf may be up for sale, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale price is expected to be about $450M and may attract the likes of Cnooc Ltd (NYSE: CEO).
• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," subprime woes continue, and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) may face a $7B-plus write-down in the fourth quarter and Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) could face between $8B and $11B of write downs in the fourth quarter.
• According to Barron's Online's "Weekday Trader" column, a General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) Asset Management bond fund, worth $5B, is suffering losses in its asset-backed mortgages and asset-backed securities, and is giving its investors the opportunity to redeem their holdings at 96c on the dollar.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Financial Times reported that JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) launched a micro-finance unit as part of its emerging markets strategy.

WEB SITES:

• According to executives familiar with the situation and reported by Apple Insider, the launch of the Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone in China is likely to be delayed due to a number of issues including revenue sharing and SIM card incompatibility.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Commerzbank , Trico Marine Services, Optimal Group and Mediacom were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is now attractive.
• Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, as they believe the company has eliminated much of the uncertainty on asset quality.
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Trico Marine Services Inc (NASDAQ: TRMA) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $46 from $40 to reflect the growth potential brought on by the company's purchase of Active Subsea ASA.
• B. Riley raised its rating on Optimal Group Inc (NASDAQ: OPMR) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's proven management team, acquisition of WowWee and strong balance sheet.
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Mediacom Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback, as they now think the stock is oversold. Citigroup thinks Mediacom will generate free cash in 2008 and they like the pace of buybacks.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Buy from Hold.
• UBS upgraded UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Wachovia raised Performance Food Group Company (NASDAQ: PFGC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

This morning UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) said it expects a loss of up to $690 million while Citigroup (NYSE: C) said it expects a 60% decline in profit -- but still managed to expect a profit. The difference? European banks like UBS were only marginally brighter than the poor U.S. subprime mortgage borrowers because they actually fell for the line that packages of subprime mortgages were safe, high yielding investments.

It's worth remembering that the mortgage industry value network is complex. No longer does a mortgage bank issue a mortgage and keep it on its books. What happens now is that a mortgage broker convinces a borrower to sign a mortgage contract. The originating mortgage bank then turns around and sells that mortgage to a Wall Street investment bank that packages the mortgage into a mortgage-backed security (MBS) which it quickly gets off its books -- and onto those of European and Asian investors, like UBS, which are now paying the price for their gullibility.

How big of a price? UBS is taking a $690 million loss and firing 1,500 workers due to the $3.4 billion writedown of the value of its MBSs -- but I think it's curious that it still has $19 billion of MBSs with which it is "comfortable." Meanwhile Citigroup's problems are more complex -- it will take $1.4 billion in pretax write-downs on leveraged buyouts it is helping to finance, $1.3 billion in pretax losses on subprime MBSs and $600 million in pretax losses on fixed-income trading.

Citigroup looks like a better diversified sucker. While Citigroup took pain from its MBSs, it also suffered from LBO loan writedowns. Nevertheless, Citigroup looks like it will stay in profitable territory.

But with its shares down 16% in 2007, its performance is nothing to cheer about.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup shares and has no financial interest in UBS.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), European investment banks, American Express (AXP), and ImClone (IMCL) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch, which cited valuation.
• European investment banks were downgraded by Societe Generale on concerns that investment banking revenue will decline. Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) was downgraded to Sell from Hold. Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) was downgraded to Sell from Buy, and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) was downgraded to Hold from Buy.
• American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Merrill Lynch, which cited slower consumer spending.
• ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings, which lowered their estimates following feedback regarding the FLEX study announcement.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Business Objects ADS (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by First Albany.
• Roper Industries Inc (NYSE: ROP) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Friedman Billings.
• Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Citigroup.
• National CineMedia Inc (NASDAQ: NCMI) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.