The next month is the one that matters most to the retail sector. It will dominate the conversation when Q4 and full-year financials are reported. A strong Black Friday brought with it concerns that momentum will fade, but opportunity is not dispensed equally. Some retailers will come through the season better than others, and industry experts have already chosen their favorites.

Michael Dart, senior partner at Kurt Salmon Associates, says, "We are seeing a paradigm shift in the way consumer interprets value and what they are looking for." The winners will do more than pitch deep discounts to convince consumers to part with their hard-earned cash.

One stock that I think has traded irrationally is Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NASDAQ: DECK).

Shares of the UGG and Teva footwear company had fallen to $80 per share in late October, but lost nearly 50% of its value from there in November.

Considering that the company increased guidance on Oct. 23, this move made little sense.

When I last wrote about DECK in July, shares were trading for more than $100, but well off their highs above $160. At that time, I suggested that investors resist the urge to buy the beaten-down stock, no matter how tempting.

It wasn't that I didn't believe in the potential of the company. Instead, the macro picture being as it was at that time suggested waiting for a better entry point. I thought below $80 would make sense.

I was right about waiting, although I did not think the stock would sink to less than $50 as it did in late November. Obviously something was amiss given that DECK's performance was quite stellar.