With earnings due out tomorrow, only those comfortable with potential near-term volatility should consider Mark Fightmaster's recommendation for Under Armour (NYSE: UA). Nevertheless, the analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research says, "I am a raging bull when it comes to this athletic apparel firm."

He explains, "Under Armour has a lot going for it. UA darn near has the market cornered when it comes to performance apparel. Its marketing is aggressive and catchy, and it was the innovator, not the imitator."

"Walk into your local sporting goods store or look at UA's internet site," he notes, and "check out the ducats you need to shell out for one of the company's shirts."

The advisor continues, "Okay, now let's take a look at UA's technical merits and see if my bullish enthusiasm is warranted. The shares are positioned above potential support at their 50-week moving average. Since its inception, UA has finished just one week below this trendline, which is rapidly ascending into the technical picture to provide support."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: NutriSystem, Under Armour, CME Group, Air France ADS and Kilroy Realty were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Broadpoint on valuation, as they believe all concerns are overdone.
  
• Think Equities upgraded Under Armour (NYSE: UA) to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.
  
• Wachovia upgraded CME Group (NYSE: CME) to Overweight from Market weight, as they expect fed income volumes to benefit from a more active Federal Reserve.
  
• Goldman added Air France (NYSE: AKH) to its Pan-European Conviction Buy List citing valuation following the recent sell-off.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Kilroy Realty (NYSE: KRC) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe concerns are overblown and the company's underleveraged balance sheet can drive growth.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS raised SXC Health Solutions (NASDAQ: SXCI) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Think Equities upgraded Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Accumulate from Source of Funds.
  
• DA Davidson & Co upgraded Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI) to Buy from Hold.
  
• Lehman upgraded Intersil Corporation (NASDAQ: ISIL) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded SEI Investments (NASDAQ: SEIC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sprint Nextel, Tesoro, VeriSign, Healthcare Property and Resources Connection were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded shares of Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) to Neutral from Buy to reflect continuing turnaround delays, macro headwinds and competition.
  
• Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing increased concerns regarding West Coast margins.
  
• The firm also lowered VeriSign Inc (NASDAQ: VRSN) to Neutral from Outperform, as they believe the company's reorganization could require more time than investors anticipate.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded Healthcare Property (NYSE: HCP) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation. Shares were also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  
• Resources Connection (NASDAQ: RECN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities and to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear following its Q1 report.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JMP Securities.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• UBS downgraded Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Bear downgraded CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Underperform from Peer Perform.

Our "Duh of the Week" award goes to the web site Hot or Not, which discontinued its free dating service when it was overrun by spam and fake profiles. Apparently, they thought the idea that people would present themselves honestly on the internet was hot. It was not.
via Mashable

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) and Warnaco Group's (NASDAQ: WRNC) Speedo received some free publicity that will test the axiom that there is no such thing as bad publicity when it was revealed that a couple of detainees at the government's Club for Terrorists in Guantanamo were discovered to be wearing Under Armor briefs and/or Speedo bathing suits. Officials at Gitmo, according to a letter leaked to Boing Boing, are investigating the prisoner's attorneys/ fashion consultants as possible culprits.
via Boing Boing

Several items from Reg Dunlap's Small Print column in Metropolis Tokyo caught our attention this week.

• The Omachi Digger Wasp Lovers Group has convinced a local company to market a rice cracker using their favorite insect as the main ingredient. But is it trans-fat free?
• Apparently, the all-night net cafes in Tokyo have become favorite overnight haunts for an estimated 5,400 homeless web junkies.
• The first McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) McCafe to open in Toyko had a line of over 1,000 waiting to get in.

Finally, remembering that there are companies in the business of finding good names for companies and products, I have to take my hat off to the geniuses that named the Stiff Nipples Air Conditioning Service.

Fitness apparel maker Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) has had an amazing run so far, but the question now being asked is whether or not that run is over -- and it looks like 37% of investors believe it just might be.

Here's a quick history lesson on Under Armour. The stock went public in November of 2005 and traded at about $25. Since then the stock has steadily climbed to its current price of $64.38, or a gain of about 155%. Wow.

However, Under Armour is now at a point where investors are having a tough time believing this bullish run will continue. The Baltimore Sun highlighted the dilemma in this morning's paper, pointing out that 37% of UA's stock is owned by short sellers -- good enough to make Under Armour the 25th largest short sold company on the New York Stock Exchange.

The 37% of doubters seem to have an awfully good point here, at least at this price point (I'd hate to think of the price points that some of them got in at). Retailers reported disappointing sales for the month of July, another sign of the weakening consumer and overall economy, amid the market's current volatility. It's just not advisable to be long a stock like Under Armour right now, not with such a large red flag being raised.

The market is hot! Everything seems to be moving. After almost four years of a pretty non-volatile market, the recent volatility in the market has taken the interest of all traders. In a more volatile market one has to remember that a looser stop is absolutely necessary to avoid being shaken out of positions. While the risk is greater, in a volatile market return potential increases as well.

Several of my recent ideas remain around the opening price while others have been doing very well. However, I have to attribute some of these quick gains to general optimism from the market today. Because I have been very bullish on a variety of momentum names, these shoot up quickly on days like Wednesday. But it's a double-sided sword -- when the market gets hit, these things get hit harder. I believe that if proper risk controls are in place, most importantly a stop-loss, then trading these names is a much more lucrative game than gaming normal stocks.

Most of my ideas these days are technically-oriented and there's a pretty simple explanation for this: the market isn't cheap enough to turn up tons of value investments -- my primary fundamental-based investments. While I've managed turn to up a couple value ideas, most notably Earthlink (NASDAQ: ELNK) here, I've also managed to turn up several growth-based fundamental ideas such as American Science & Engineering (NASDAQ: ASEI) (which reported great earnings the other day) here.

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) opened at $66.45. So far today the stock has hit a low of $62.53 and a high of $67.00. As of 11:05, UA is trading at $62.66, down $2.05 (-3.2%).

The stock has made a couple of big leaps over the past six weeks, reaching a one-year high of $68.24 on Friday. Jim Cramer says he has been hearing "great things" about this stock, and plans to feature it in one of his shows – as soon as Bernanke does something about the mortgage crisis and he can stop talking about that. Though this stock may be out of the spotlight due to the current situation in mortgage and banking, Cramer says its excellent quarter should not be discounted; this company has been impressive, and continues to climb. Technical indicators for UA are bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk and leverage returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in less than 3 months as long as UA is above $45 at October expiration. UA would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.

UA hasn't been below $45 for more than a few days at a time since October and has shown support around $51 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's recent spike turns out to be a false move, but even if that happens, it looks like this position could be protected the strong support the stock found between $45 and $46 over the past seven months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UA.

Well, it's August up here in the northern hemisphere and those with outdoor pursuits know you can't stay dry for long. There is an outfit in Baltimore that looks after the sporting set, though, engineering apparel to keep folks "cool, dry and light" through those active summer days.

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) develops and markets apparel and accessories designed for use in athletics and outdoor activities. Offerings include long and short sleeve T-shirts, shorts, sweats, socks, bags, baseball batting gloves, football gloves, underwear and products used in hunting, fishing, hiking, and mountain sports. Most clothing items are made from its moisture-wicking and heat-dispersing fabrics, able to keep athletes dry during workouts. The company markets goods via the Internet, catalogs and specialty retailers. Nike (NYSE: NKE) is a major competitor.

The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 11 cents and revenues of $120.5 million. Analysts had been expecting three cents and $105.5 million. The CEO attributed success to growth in the Women's business. Management also guided FY07 revenues to $580-$590 million, versus consensus of $583.30 million. Credit Suisse subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the issue and boosted its price target to $75.

Apple (NYSE: AAPL) volatility elevated on unconfirmed chatter iPod production reduced.

• AAPL is recently down $3.90 to $137.50 on unconfirmed chatter AAPL reduced iPod production.
  
• AAPL announced three billion songs have been purchased and downloaded from iTunes.com.
  
• RBC Capital reiterated its Outperform rating on AAPL.
  
• AAPL call option volume of 106,511 contracts compares to put volume of 87,001 contracts. AAPL August option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) volatility flat as UA rallies to record after EPS.

• UA is recently up $7.97 to $63.23 after UA reported 2nd EPS of 11 cents, above consensus estimates of 3 cents. UA revenues grew 50% to $120.5 million.
  
• Smith Barney has a Hold rating with a $52 price target on UA.
  
• UA call option volume of 5,072 contracts compares to put volume of 3,440 contracts. UA September option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting flat price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Is it ever OK to forget valuation? Yes -- if you have the right mindset.

Once I learned how companies were valued, and how to value companies, I found it increasingly difficult to trade stocks that I may have found interesting before. The idea behind investing is that the stock market offers you businesses at premiums and discounts to their values. Obviously, to make money, you try to purchase the stocks with the deepest discounts and wait for the market to realize their value. However, this certainly has its flaws -- namely, you might have valued the company incorrectly. If you have too much conviction in this valuation, you can stand to lose a lot of money.

Trading is different from investing because you don't look at a stock as a business -- you look at it is a "stock." This mindset has its benefits over investing -- primarily the fact that money management becomes much easier because you can quickly cut losses without guilt.

Prior to learning about the concepts of value investing, I would guiltlessly trade in and out of stocks based on which sector was hot, momentum in earnings, and even momentum in price. And I happened to do well, but when another commitment came up (school) I was forced to shift to a more long-term mindset.

Though Under Armour (NYSE: UA) has gained more than 38% over the past year with eye-popping growth, investors should avoid the stock for now.

Under Armor's stock price may be poised to fall because of the company's patent liability and unmanageable product diversification. The company's 66 earnings multiple is three-times higher than its competition. Although the company is certainly not "average" with its growth statistics and very profitable businesses, the valuation is still ridiculous. Analysts expect the company's growth to slow to only 24% per year for the next five years, down from 44% per year for the last five years. Analysts, though, have failed to take into account increasing amounts of price cuts, which will also hurt 2008 earnings.

While Under Armour can claim nearly 75% market share in its primary market, this figure is likely going to be in steady decline for the next couple years because the company's products aren't protected by patents. As a result, competitors like Nike (NYSE: NKE) and Adidas have (and will continue to) hurt Under Armour's market position and pricing power. For most people (excluding the very wealthy) lowest price wins, especially when shopping for something as fungible as a performance t-shirt. This is going to force Under Armour to cut its prices and its margins and its status as a premium brand

Baltimore's Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) is opening up its first retail location soon in the spirit of the company's brash, emotional and engaging marketing. In other words, stepping foot into an Under Armour store will make customers feel like they are in one of the company's engaging and sweat-strewn television commercials. That's just fine with Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank.

Although I'm wary on standalone retail locations for single brands (Apple being the lone exception), this one will probably work. The key is to engage the customer in emotional fashion and connect with why they are there in the first place. Did you notice there is a difference between walking into an Apple store and a CompUSA? Sure, one is a single brand and the other is a retailer with hundreds of brands. Is the experience the same? Not at all.

Under Armour's slick and well-produced commercials (a-la Gatorade's neon-sweat commercials) appeal to the male testosterone junkie better than most, and recreating that experience upon entering and browsing a retail location will score major points with the demographic that shops for sports apparel at an Under Armour store. Plank says it all here: "What I don't think the world needs is a slightly better athletic retail store ... it's our job to redefine the paradigm of what the consumer and the athlete are looking for." There you have it. Me-too athletic retail strategies are so 1990, eh?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Specialty pharmaceutical companies make up today's most noteworthy list:

• The Bank of America initiated Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY), Mentor Corp (NYSE: MNT), Alcon, Inc (NYSE: ACL) and Allergan, Inc (NYSE: AGN) with Buy ratings and initiated Cephalon, Inc (NASDAQ: CEPH), Forest Laboratories, Inc (NYSE: FRX), Sepracor Inc (NASDAQ: SEPR) with Neutral ratings. Bank of America's top pick is Shire plc as the firm expects the company to launch six products or product extensions by mid-2008, followed by Mentor Corp, as the conversion to silicone breast implants should drive a period of stronger-than-expected sales and earnings.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) was initiated at Buckingham with an Underperform rating and General Motors (GM) was started with a Neutral rating.

• Nollenberger believes Under Armour, Inc (NYSE: UA), started with a Buy rating, is positioned to outperform the market based on the strength of its brand name and demand through the continued introduction of new products along with European growth.

• Barr Pharmaceuticals, Inc (NYSE: BRL) was initiated with an Equal Weight rating and $53 target at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Being in London for a few days gives one a perspective of how outsiders view our markets and other general trends. I had a meeting with a British portfolio manager, James, who partially specializes in US retailers. He is the co-manager of a $3 billion US growth fund for a major mutual fund company based in London. He travels to the US five to six times per year to visit companies and attend various growth conferences. He is an absolute seller of the Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) and is using those dollars to buy and add to his Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) position.

As a quick backdrop, I wrote in my book "Stop Losing Money Today" about various companies that serve a niche market, or a fad market; and companies that become absolute phenomenons. One such company that I highlighted was Nike. Nike began as a niche sneaker maker/marketer that migrated to a fad during the "joggers" period of the 70's to an outright phenomenon in the 90's as it expanded its products to apparel, shoes for men and women, and opened its extensive retail stores. Today Nike sells over $16 billion worth of merchandise.

The Gap, on the other hand, has become a has-been concept in the retail world. The distribution channels are massive for the Gap, with over 3,000 outlets representing the Gap Stores, Banana Republic and Old Navy. But they have miscalculated the fickle consumer and underestimated the competition from players like Abercrombie and Fitch. The Gap has had senior management issues (never a good sign) and has retained a senior search firm to find a new CEO. The holiday season was very disappointing for the Gap concepts.

At one time in the 1990's, the Gap Stores "was it". They owned the teenage and twenty-something markets. They really infused the nation with the comfort and casual look. But eventually, the Gap became an old and passe concept and did not keep up with changing tastes and trends.

Nike has led the athletic apparel and footwear market and has withstood the fierce competition from Russell, Adidas, Reebok and now the hot manufacturer Under Armour (NYSE:UA). Nike has consistently portrayed an image of quality yet cutting edge. Nike realized early on that the decision makers for footwear and apparel are teenagers, not parents, and they aligned themselves with major university athletic programs. The brilliance of Nike was to open the retail stores as they can control all aspects of the purchase. Customers coming in to buy a pair of shoes, invariably walk out with t-shirts and other accessories added to the purchase.

Nike has never sat pat on any of their footwear or apparel lines. They are constantly tweaking the offerings and keeping them fresh and appealing. Interestingly, both Gap and Nike sell about $16 billion of merchandise annually, but Nike is growing and solid, while Gap is struggling and unfocused.

James did confess to me that he wears Reebok shoes himself!!

Georges Yared is the author of "Stop Losing Money Today" and "Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?"

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
• Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) may be in talks to acquire the in-game advertising company AdScape Media.
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD) directors are expected to meet with activist investor Ralph Whitworth, who wants the company to spin-off its lower margin supply business to better concentrate on its main stores.
• Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW) is expected to announce an agreement with Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) that would involve Sun buying Intel chips for its server systems.
• Barron's Magazine (subscription required)
• Shares of Under Armour (NASDAQ: UARM) may be set to take a tumble and some only believe shares should be trading no higher than $40.
• Shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) may be set for another run and John Buckingham of Al Frank Asset Management would buy shares up to $32.41.
• The "Technology Trader" says it may be too early to walk away from shares of Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO).
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that a private equity consortium may be after Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

OTHER PAPERS:

• The U.K. Times reported that Tata Steel and CSN are both expected to raise their bid for Corus (NYSE: CGA).
  
• The Telegraph reported that BP's (NYSE: BP) exiting CEO Browne, dreamed of merging with Shell (NYSE: RDS.A).