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Electronic Arts acquires stake in The9: More acquisitions on the way?

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) is spending about $167 million for a 15% share in The9 (NASDAQ: NCTY), one of China's largest online game operators. In March, Electronic Arts bought 19% of NeoWiz, a Korean company, for about $105 million.

While these moves into Asia are part of a strategic initiative to develop a stronger distribution network in the region, it got me wondering: If Electronic Arts is in a buying mood, what about Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO)? The company has been plagued by just about every scandal imaginable: options backdating, overstated earnings, porn in video games, etc. But after major institutional investors ousted the company's slimy management, things could be in store for a turnaround. and investors who are fed-up with the company's underperformance may want it to explore a sale.

The prices paid for The9 and NeoWiz might make Take-Two look inexpensive, with its market cap of $1.4 billion, and strong brands, mainly the Grand Theft Auto series (I don't normally play video games, but Grand Theft Auto is amazing).

The shares were up almost 3% today, so maybe investors think Take-Two is a takeover candidate, too. I wouldn't be buying the stock here, given all the problems that are still dogging the company, but there's no arguing that its brands have a lot of value.

Index funds: The cure for the fund-switching blues

Mark Hulbert discussed an interesting new study in Sunday's New York Times. He sums it up: "Don't even consider holding actively managed mutual funds unless you're willing to switch funds often. All other fund investors should simply buy and hold an index fund for the long term."

The author of the study argues that mutual funds underperform over the long-term not because of the inability of professional managers to pick stocks, but because of the way money flows into funds affects returns. That's right! Blame yourself for the poor performance of your funds! Basically, Jonathan Berk, the University of California professor who wrote the paper, argues that managers who perform well attract greater investments and so the funds stop performing well.

The professor suggests a complicated method of checking your funds regularly and selling bottom-performing funds and buying top-performing ones -- sounds to me a lot like performance-chasing. It also seems to run contrary to Berk's complaint that managers who perform well take on too much in the way of assets. Isn't performance-chasing what causes that problem?

Particularly given the costs of switching funds frequently (mainly taxes), I think investors will still do far better owning index funds. It's a lot easier too, isn't it?

Does the P/E ratio matter?

In a column in Sunday's New York Times, newsletter guru Mark Hulbert makes the case that small-cap stocks are significantly overvalued, and that large caps are undervalued. His argument is based on expanding price/earnings multiple for small-cap stocks, while the average large-cap P/E is down to one third of what it was seven years ago. This, in part, explains the underperformance of stocks like Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) and Wal-Mart Stores(NYSE:WMT), whose CEOs have taken some heat for their heavy compensation in the midst of a flat stock price. These companies have provided consistent earnings growth, but the multiples have contracted to the point where the stock has remained relatively flat.

But are these companies on the verge of reward, or at least avoiding the downturn that Hulbert seems to be predicting for small-caps? I wonder. The piece does not provide any data on this going back earlier than 2000. In his book The Only Three Questions that Count, Ken Fisher made the case that the price/earnings ratio of the market is not an accurate predictor of whether stocks will move up or down. In fact, stocks seem to move higher when they exhibit high P/E ratios. I wonder if this phenomenon would hold true for the spread in the P/Es between small-caps and large-caps.

Before you go off and dump your small-caps to buy General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) and Exxon Mobile Corp.(NYSE:XOM), remember this: While small-caps may underperform large-caps as a whole, the predictive value of this for any one stock is almost nonexistent; there will be underperformers and out-performers in both categories. I believe that investors will find the most success with stock picking in small-caps and micro-caps, where research is more likely to pay off (with large-caps, everything is often already factored into the price).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 29, 2012: 12:02 AM

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