United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) lowered 1Q 2008 guidance because of lower volume trends experienced in February continued through March.

Robert W. Baird & Co says: "Outperform rating maintained on attractive long-term growth opportunities and prospects for better 2009 with tailwind from new union contract, buyback, and prospects of a better environment."

UPS May option implied volatility of 25 is above its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: OptionXpress Holdings, Supertex and Syngenta were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Merriman believes OptionXpress Holdings (NASDAQ: OXPS) has lost market share, and remains vulnerable on many fronts. They expect the competitive landscape will continue to intensify, pressuring margins and growth rates. The firm initiated shares with a Sell rating.
• Morgan Keegan started Supertex (NASDAQ: SUPX) with a Market Perform rating, citing lack of near-term catalysts.
• Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Bear, as they are positive on the company's defensive growth profile and valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• HSBC initiated FedEx (NYSE: FDX) with a Neutral rating and $102 target and United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) with an Overweight rating and $86 target.
• Credit Suisse started Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LCAPA) with an Outperform rating and $140 target.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• While United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is preparing for the busiest time of the year, high costs and a slowing economy are set to present big challenges for the Atlanta company once the holiday season is over, the Wall Street Journal reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column reported that shares of Abiomed Inc (NASDAQ: ABMD) have recovered nearly to its 52-week high of $15, rallying on buzz that the FDA could approve the company's chief product, Impella, a miniature pump at the end of a catheter, within 12 months.
• The "Inside Wall Street" column also reported that Focus Media Holding Limited (NASDAQ: FMCN), the top advertising company in Internet, Mobile and Poster/Panel Markets, should benefit from the 2008 Summer Olympics.

WEB SITES:

• According to sources and reported by AppleInsider, there have been additional sightings of an "unfamiliar MacBook model floating around" Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) campus perhaps indicating a new Macbook is coming at next month's Macworld Expo.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) ran up an impressive third quarter, seeing net income rise 3.7% to $1.08 billion from $1.04 billion from the year-ago period even in the face of a perceived slower economy, gas pricing roller-coasters and a continuing housing market mortgage messes and subprime defaults. Still, the delivery and logistics business saw an increase in business.

UPS's Q3 EPS of $1.02 was assisted by improvements in the global carrier's supply chain and freight segment in the company's international business. Total revenue for the quarter rose to $12.21 billion from $11.66 billion in the year-ago quarter, with $7.55 billion of that figure coming from domestic business, which increased in volume to the tune of 1% for the quarter.

With the U.S. economy standing on solid ground from many respects, this kind of quarter was to be expected from the nation's largest delivery carrier. Although the stock market, housing and energy price gyrations have gripped the headlines for some time now, the American consumer (and business segment) sure is not standing by while decreasing transactions that lead to deliveries all across the nation. The domestic delivery growth rate of 1% stands testament to that. This morning, UPS shares trade at $76, up over 1.2% from Monday's market close.

The United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and the Teamster's Union have reached agreement on the proposal Douglas McIntyre wrote about here last week. A new five-year contract, to be voted upon by the Teamsters' UPS employees, would transfer the 43,000 UPS employees currently enrolled in the Central States Pension Fund, which covers almost 400,000 union members from a number of companies, into their own pension fund, funded by UPS and administered cooperatively by UPS and the union. The contract would require UPS to make a one-time pre-tax payment of $6.1 billion to the CSPF to make up for its loss of members.

UPS is the largest employer of Teamsters, with around 240,000 covered by this contract proposal. The union claims that the new pact will not only better secure pension rights, but also bring increased wages and safeguard medical coverage for current and retired UPS workers. According the to The Wall Street Journal [subscription], the new contract would increase wages and benefits by $9 per hour over five years.

Critics of the proposal worry that, for the union, culling the UPS workers from the already-underfunded CSPF could weaken the pension security of non-UPS union workers. While UPS claims that the agreement will help it remain competitive, any cost-capping features in the contract that will allow them to compete with mostly non-union FedEx have yet to be specified.

Both sides claim to be pleased that accord was reached upon almost a year before the previous contract was due to expire. For the union, it will allow the members to vote on, and hopefully pass, the contract in time to beat new pension regulations that take affect January 1. For UPS, the pact secures an uninterrupted labor force for many years to come.

Monday July 23

• PDUFA date for Wyeth's (NYSE: WYE) Pristiq, a treatment for depression.
• Halliburton Co (NYSE: HAL) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10am.
• Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) to hold July sales conference call at 4:30pm.

Tuesday July 24

• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
• AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10am.
• Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Wednesday July 25

• The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10:30am.
• Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Thursday July 26

• PDFUA Date for Sanofi-Aventis's (NYSE: SNY) Acomplia, a new prescription anti-obesity drug.
• Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10am.
• Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Friday July 27

• PDUFA Date for K-V Pharmaceutical Co's (NYSE: KV.A)/VIVUS Inc's (NASDAQ: VVUS) Evamist, a patented new-generation of transdermal spray delivery system.

In the face of less than stellar April national retail sales, Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) managed to hold its position fairly well. It reported a small reduction in same store sales for April which looks pretty good when compared to the 16% reduction reported by Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS). For the four week period ending May 5, 2007, Limited Brands total sales fell 1 percent. Compare that to the year to year figures, which show that for the thirteen weeks ending May 5, Limited Brands same-store sales grew 4% and net sales grew 11% to $2.31 billion, from $2.07 billion last year. That ain't all bad, bunkie.

What does the future hold for middle to upscale retail? Much depends on two major factors. While fuel prices will have their chilling affects on consumer confidence and spending, those costs will also translate into a significant negative pull on profits all around. We may not begin to fully realize the damaging effects of rising fuel prices until mid June or so when the dynamics of the summer travel season come into full view. Suffice it to say that fuel prices are the biggest player right now in the game of consumer spending. I'm sure that's not breaking news to you.

The other significant factor which will color the canvas of retail catalog sales from here on out is the massive change in rate structure now being entertained by the United States Postal Service. Never in our lifetime has such a tremendous and far reaching postal rate hike been levied upon us in one single policy change. Companies which derive major revenue flow from catalog sales will surely be feeling the pinch and will be required to raise prices to compensate. I can't honestly say if the new higher postal rates are wrong, but I can say that they'll hurt a lot. I'd be tempted to go long on United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and FedEx (NYSE: FDX) right about now. Let us also not forget Kevin Shult's blog post regarding the significance of DHL.

In what I consider to be a move that's about seven years late, UPS has announced a new service that may be hugely significant for the company's cost structure this year and forward. Our pals over at Download Squad reported that UPS is introducing a new service called "UPS Intercept". This is important for one reason (out of the list UPS provides as "features" of the new service). That feature? The ability to have UPS packages left at a UPS station for pickup instead of an initial (and unnecessary, in many cases) delivery attempt.

The new "UPS Intercept" web-based services allow customers to request these services at any time a package is in transit from sender to receiver:

• return to sender
• deliver to another address
• reschedule delivery
• have the package held at a UPS location for pickup
  

Now, that last one is a dinger. The sheer amount of wasted natural gas, vehicle wear, and tear and employee productivity that is generated by UPS's previous policy of "having to make at least one delivery attempt" before a customer could have a package held at a UPS station for personal pick-up alone is going to be huge.

Imagine this: every day, thousands (hundreds of thousands, most likely) of initial delivery attempts are made to customer homes and businesses that are non-productive for UPS: in the home customer case, a little slip is left on the door with a return date or advising a call to UPS to have the package held. What is home customers alone could set all packages to be held at a UPS location for personal pickup? Most folks I know work during the day and cannot be home for UPS deliveries (that require signatures, of course). UPS's new Intercept web features let the customer control the delivery options instead of UPS -- shifting quite a bit of cost from the shipper's shoulders onto the backs of its customers most likely. Will this help UPS control costs further? You bet it will.

This is my 100th story so it has sentimental value since I am not a writer by training. When I accepted a BloggingStocks position I was not sure I would be able to work it into my schedule, much less whether anyone would even care about what I had to say. But so far, so good.

I wanted my 100th post to have some meaning so I have decided to write about companies that have withstood the test of time. We are rapidly closing in on 2007 and United Parcel Service will be celebrating its 100th anniversary. In 2007 the cumulative histories of these five diversified companies will total 692 years of business success. Most of the histories have been gathered from other sites which I have included for those who want to learn more.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) Started in 1907.

In 1907 there was a great need in America for private messenger and delivery services. To help meet this need, an enterprising 19-year-old, James E. (Jim) Casey, borrowed $100 from a friend and established the American Messenger Company in Seattle, Washington. According to accounts given by Jim there were quite a few messenger services already in the Seattle area, some of which he had worked for in the past.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx Corp (FDX) top today's modest list of initiations.

• United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $85 target at Citigroup. The firm said more upside is seen given the expectation for double-digit EPS growth over the next few years.
• FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) was initiated with a Buy rating and $132 target at Citigroup. The firm said FedEx has a favorable risk/reward given the expectation for 13% EPS growth over the next few years.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Level 3 Communication (NASDAQ:LVLT) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and $5 target at Janco.
• Morgan Stanley initiated Southern Union (NYSE:SUG) with an Underweight rating.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Almost 60 days have passed since I posted Scary market -- any safe stocks? and Still scary market -- more SAFE HAVENS.

Interestingly five of these eight companies made the top 20 (actually top 17) on Barron's list of most repected companies based on capitalzation in the current issue of Barron's (subscription required). The other three are not large enough to make the poll. Even more interesting GE, PG & BRK are three of the top five. Is it possible these Wall Street money managers have been reading my stories?... Naw -- and I certainly have not been talking to them.

Thirty days have passed since I posted Scary market -- any safe stocks? and almost 30 days since Still scary market -- more SAFE HAVENS.

Thirty days is really of no consequence in testing the validity of my comments or these companies. However, I was curious about how they were tracking and I think I should be as accountable as anyone else and more than most since I have been writing for the BloggingStocks site. Since posting the share prices six have moved up and two have gone down. I have not changed my mind about any of these companies or their stocks during this period. I had a good-til-cancelled order for some WM, which filled, taking advantage of the drop. We are also seriously looking at acquiring some more UPS, which is down significantly, to our original purchase price, eliminating all of our profit. They are listed in the order I mentioned them in my earlier posts.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) closed Friday at $3,102 up from $2,995.

Washington Mutual (WM) closed Friday at $42.75 down from $45.50.

The stock market remains unstable for now so I am sticking with the theme of focusing on relatively safe companies that are worth considering as long term holds. There is some fear and uncertainty in the market and any experienced investor knows this also brings opportunity.

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a rock-solid company that has increased shareholder equity continuously over the last five years. It has a clean balance sheet with long term debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2 and pays a 1.9% dividend yield. Like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B / BRK.A) it is one of only seven or eight companies (out of thousands) that have an AAA financial rating -- extremely strong! I bought some last year as oil prices were rising and the stock had dropped, the market fearing the company's earnings would be hurt since it maintains the largest private fleet of planes and trucks in the world. Well it, like other carriers, just added a surcharge and kept on doing business as usual. Now oil prices are moving up again and the same thing is happening -- and again it has got my attention. This is a company you can leave to you kids, grandchildren and great grandchildren. If you can buy something of this high quality on sale, why not?

These four companies are on my watch list and I love them all. There are plenty of reasons to love my Dubya's; WD-40 (WDFC), Washington Mutual (WM), Wells Fargo Bank (WFC), and Wrigley (WWY) and I would be delighted to own them all...that is if Warren does not beat me to them.

They all pay higher than average dividends, have little or no debt, long illustrious histories, proven successful management, profitability, clear understandable businesses, and much more. I currently own Washington Mutual in my Roth IRA. Warren Buffett owns Wells Fargo and it has been reported he may be buying more. WD-40 and Wrigley are exactly the type of companies that Buffett would buy out in their entirety at the right price.

It is important to have a watch list because companies like these are not often on sale. Like Mr. Buffett I always want to buy at bargain prices. It is possible to make money buying them when they are not on sale but why not have the margin of safety (an important Benjamin Graham concept); there is no rush. Some of the companies/stocks I purchased in the last year were not available at bargain prices for many years prior. PATIENCE, PATIENCE--I watched Federal Express, UPS and Starbucks sadly wanting in but not having the right opportunity.