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Gold and Silver Hit New Highs

Sometimes we have a strong bias concerning which way a stock or commodity will move. Let's take gold and silver. Let's assume that you believe the turmoil in the Middle East, especially in Libya and Syria, is bullish for gold. Let's also assume that the weaker U.S. dollar is good for gold.

You hold on for the past two weeks with the Mideast getting worse, and with the dollar getting weaker, and nothing happens. Gold just meanders. You start to wonder if you've done the right thing buying gold.

Continue reading Gold and Silver Hit New Highs

Pimco's Gross Sells All U.S. Government Holdings

This is indeed a dramatic move. The world's largest bondholder, Pacific Invest Management Company, dubbed Pimco, sold all of its U.S. government holdings including U.S. treasuries.

At the end of February, Pimco had $236.93 billion or 12% of its holdings in the Total Return Fund in U.S. holdings. That was cut to zero.

Continue reading Pimco's Gross Sells All U.S. Government Holdings

Are You a Stock Market Bull or Bear?

Is the glass half full of half empty? This is a perennial debate.

Those who are bearish say the market has gone too far to the upside; investors are shrugging off the latest debt scare in Europe; we have rising global interest rates; there's a potential meltdown in the municipal bond market; earnings may disappoint; the VIX is too low; and on and on we go.

For the bulls, the S&P 500 has traded above its 50-day moving average for 94 consecutive sessions, according to Birinyi Associates. This is the first time this has happened in five years. Many analysts consider stock valuations to be at relatively low levels. The glass for them is still half full.

Continue reading Are You a Stock Market Bull or Bear?

U.S. Dollar Tanks, Commodities and Stocks Fly

The U.S. Federal Reserve's move to buy $600 billion of Treasuries has set off powerful wave to buying across commodities and stocks.

First off, the U.S. dollar, as expected, is sharply lower with the December futures down.718 to 75.905. In a knee jerk reaction, the euro traded above $1.42 to $1.42450, up .0147.

Moving to other commodities, oil is up $1.71 per barrel to $86.40 for the December contract.

Continue reading U.S. Dollar Tanks, Commodities and Stocks Fly

U.S. Dollar Continues to Fall

G 20 logoIn meetings this weekend, the Group of 20 finance ministers failed to nail down specific policies for currency devaluations. The final communique of the group, reported in the Wall Street Journal, reads: G-20 nations will "move towards more market determined exchange rate systems that reflect underlying economic fundamentals and refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies." It added that "advanced economies, including those with reserve currencies, will be vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates."

That vague language is taken to mean business as usual. The dollar's fall is expected to continue. In early trading the U.S. dollar futures are down .505 at 77.18. Commodities and the stock market are up. Oil, gold, grains and the S & P futures are all trading higher.

Continue reading U.S. Dollar Continues to Fall

U.S. Dollar Is Sharply Lower

U.S. dollarThe U.S. dollar fell to the lowest level against the euro in two months, according to Reuters. As of 1:00 pm. EDT the December futures contract was down .856 to 82.160 (1:00 pm. EDT)

It's more of the same old, same old. When the dollar is hit, commodities and the stock market rally. October oil is at $77.11 per barrel, up 66 cents. December wheat is at $47.74 per bushel, up 7.4 cents. September S & P is at 1117.75, up 800. October gold is trading at $1,246.20 per ounce, up $1.20.

Continue reading U.S. Dollar Is Sharply Lower

Top Picks for 2010: Powershares US Dollar Bullish (UUP)

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"When extreme valuations are accompanied by unbridled optimism or abject pessimism, it virtually always marks a turning point -- and an opportunity; and this is no exception," says Alex Green, referring to the U.S. dollar.

Here, the senior investment advisor to The Oxford Club and Investment U looks to PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) as a favorite idea for the coming year.

Continue reading Top Picks for 2010: Powershares US Dollar Bullish (UUP)

Lloyd's Amps Up Insurance and Reinsurance Capacity This Year

Lloyd's of London is poised to take some risks in 2010. In fact, it's ready to put more than $36 billion into the insurance and reinsurance world, according to analysts at reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter, a division of Marsh & McLennan (MMC).

The year-over-year increase could be as high as 27% compared to 2009, with the additional capacity coming from lower risk-transfer rates for some lines of business, though much of it is being offered to compensate for the weakness of the British pound relative to stronger currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.

Continue reading Lloyd's Amps Up Insurance and Reinsurance Capacity This Year

Why is gold marching higher? Ask the central bankers

The rally in gold just doesn't want to quit. You are probably wondering what is going on. Central banks around the world hold gold reserves. Periodically, they buy or sell gold, depending on how they view world markets. Right now, central banks are net buyers, the first time since 1988.

A weak US dollar is the main stimulus for central bankers' gold purchases. India just bought 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund. Central bankers in Mexico, Russia, the Philippines, all have increased their gold purchases.

Continue reading Why is gold marching higher? Ask the central bankers

Why is gold making a new high, trading at $1,118.00 per ounce?

A wise trader once told me: "It's all in the price. All the thoughts, ideas and emotions of all the traders throughout the world are in that one number."

Gold is trading at $1,118.00 per ounce. What is that number telling us? Pure and simple, the market is telling us that inflation is on the way. The Indian government just bought 200 tons of gold valued at over $7 trillion dollars. In other words they exchanged $7 trillion US dollars for the 200 tons of gold.

At the same time the December US dollar contract traded below 75.00 on a trade-weighted basis. What is that number telling us? Traders are turning in dollars for other investments, mainly stocks and commodities.

Continue reading Why is gold making a new high, trading at $1,118.00 per ounce?

Why do we have a weak dollar?

The stock market is rallying. Commodities are on a tear. Yet the dollar is falling. Why?

There are several reasons for the drop in the dollar, but the most obvious and simple answer is that investors around the world are selling dollars and using the money to buy stocks and commodities, particularly oil and gold.

Last week India announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF.) At an average of say $1000.00 per ounce, the transaction amounted to about $7 trillion dollars. Chances are that India sold dollars from their sovereign fund to buy the gold.

Continue reading Why do we have a weak dollar?

Closing Bell: A great day that may feel empty (AA, PEP, VG, LEN, RPRX, PLUG, MMM, WFC)

Today was one of those up-days that might be a disappointment to many bulls because the gap-ups were not met by follow-on buying throughout the day. A better weekly joblessness report may have been muted by Asian central banks intervening to protect the US Dollar.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,786.79 +61.21 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,065.31 +7.73 (0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,124.41 +14.08 (0.67%)

Top analyst upgrades and downgrades
Top market rumors
Top day trader alerts

Continue reading Closing Bell: A great day that may feel empty (AA, PEP, VG, LEN, RPRX, PLUG, MMM, WFC)

Gulf Arab states are in talks to replace the U.S. dollar for oil

Over the past year there has been talk of replacing the U.S. dollar for oil transactions. On Tuesday, Britain's The Independent newspaper reported that secret talks were being held with Russia, China, Japan, and France to replace the dollar with a basket of currencies.

You are probably wondering: "When will this happen?" and "Which currencies will be included in the basket? In answer to first question the changeover would take place over nine years. The currencies to be included in the basket include the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.

What this means is that oil will no longer priced in dollars.The article in The Independent claimed the U.S. is aware of the talks and is "sure to fight this international cabal."

Continue reading Gulf Arab states are in talks to replace the U.S. dollar for oil

FXA soaring on gold prices

Gold bugs around the world have been rejoicing this week as the price of gold has climbed above $1,000 per ounce. On the same note, forex investors with money in the Australian dollar have been rejoicing for the same reason.

You see, the Australian dollar has a cozy relationship with gold. As gold prices go up, the Australian dollar typically goes up, and as gold prices go down, the Australian dollar typically goes down. This relationship stems from the fact that Australia mines and exports a good portion of the world's gold.

Continue reading FXA soaring on gold prices

US and China agree that the US dollar will remain as the world reserve currency

At first we thought that it was rather unusual that the US Treasury Secretary, Geithner, would make a special trip to China. What were the reasons for his trip? The purpose of the mission became clear when Geithner announced that the dollar would remain as the world reserve currency. There had been a lot of scuttle but about replacing the dollar as the world reserve currency, but some of this has been put to rest with the support of Chinese backing.

As usual the Chinese remarks were guarded and a bit fuzzy. Guo Shuging, Chairman of China Construction Bank and former head of the country's foreign exchange administrator said: "In the short term, I don't think we can find another currency to replace the US dollar." He also said, "the US dollar is the main currency because their economy is number one in terms of competitiveness, in terms of innovation."

Continue reading US and China agree that the US dollar will remain as the world reserve currency

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:35 PM

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