Nary a good word can be said about this market in the first week of March 2009. The U.S. economy seems set to register at least an 18-month recession, and probably a longer one. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner went to Capitol Hill Tuesday to essentially tell the U.S. Congress more money will be needed for the banking bailout, and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke did the same to brace elected officials for more, essential help for American International Group (NYSE: AIG). As 'The Great One,' Jackie Gleason would chime, "Oh, wonderful!"

Translation: rough sledding, at best, for equities, and a defensive posture is the rule. Still, so long as one expects the U.S. economy to return to some semblance of normalcy -- and that's the view here -- there are bargains to be had for those investors who can tolerate moderate risk. And with the above in mind utility, FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) is worth a review.

This market isn't fit for most investors, but if you have the risk tolerance to own (or increase a position in) a stock or two, consider a utility.

But not just any utility. We're talking a well-capitalized utility. With solid revenue streams. And a large, moneyed customer base. And dominate positions in key markets. Hey, this is not a market for 'experimental business models' and 'iffy' stock plays, which is why Verizon is worth a review.

The latest trend in the utilities sector could deliver an unpleasant 'jolt' (pun intended) to electric power generation companies, if it continues.

U.S. electricity consumption unexpectedly dropped in Q2 and Q3, on a year-over-year basis, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required), although The Journal cautioned that the data is early and incomplete.

Major electric power suppliers Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) and American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) all reported declines in residential electricity use in recent quarters, compared to the previous year, The Journal reported.

An electric puzzle

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday electricity demand is a function of more factors than one might assume. The economic cycle, seasons, weather extremes, demographics, household formation, increased efficiency, technological change, and even popular culture trends are among the major factors affecting electricity demand.

Wang believes the major factor in the recent dip is the current U.S. recession. "I will defer to more-comprehensive U.S. Energy Department and power association data later, but I think without question the economic downturn is a major factor. When people lose jobs, many tend to give up housing and live with roommates or relatives. This decreases electricity use. Also, home foreclosures result in empty homes, which obviously use less energy than occupied homes."

U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Tuesday, its third drop in the past four months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected industrial production to rise 0.1% in May. Industrial production fell 0.7% in April.

Further, manufacturing output was unchanged in May, the Fed said, while utilities output declined 1.8%, and mine output increased 0.1%. The Fed added that factory output was boosted by a small pickup in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the end in late May of a strike at a parts producer had little effect on vehicle output for the month.

Also, capacity utilization declined to 79.4% in May from 79.6% in 79.7 in April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 79.7 in May. The May utilization rate is 1.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2007 and is at its lowest level since November 2004. Capacity utilization totaled 80.3% in March and 80.9% one year ago, in May 2007.

U.S. economy operating well below capacity

Economist David H. Wang said U.S. industrial production continues to operate well below capacity. "We are continuing to see a downward path of industrial production and this is not a good sign. Industrial production has declined for about one year, and this will weigh on commercial activity. It's also a major job loss area," Wang said. "The U.S. economy is complex and multi-faceted but it's hard for GDP to grow without industrial production increasing."

A year or so ago, a 10% total annual return on equity would have been unsatisfactory for many investors.

My, how the U.S. financial landscape has changed from April 2007! A 10% return today doesn't look so bad, and a company that can achieve that and more is utility NRG Energy.

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is a wholesale power generating company that owns and operates power plants with a net capacity of 22,880 megawatts.

The majority of NRG's revenue is from base load power. The significance? A stable cash flow. Further NRG's power source is largely natural gas-based, which is preferred, given likely additional regulations moving forward for coal-fired plants, as nations address climate change. NRG's power source mix is 45% natural gas, 34% coal, 16% oil, 5% nuclear. NRG's stable includes 175 power generation units at 49 power plants.

General Electric and Vestas Wind Systems are reaping the benefits as U.S. utilities assertively add generating capacity from renewable/alternative energy sources, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

For example, XCel Energy (NYSE: XEL), the U.S.'s largest provider of wind power, is buying 67 General Electric (NYSE: GE) turbines for a Minnesota wind farm, and GE expects its turbine sales to increase 25% to $6 billion this year, Bloomberg News reported. GE was the largest supplier of wind turbines in 2007, with a 45% market share. Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) and Vestas are two other major global manufacturers of wind turbines that should continue to benefit as wind power usage increases: each is opening manufacturing plants in the U.S. to accommodate increased wind energy-related sales.

GE's shares gained 89 cents to $34.29, while Siemens AG rose 20 cents to $128.20 in Wednesday afternoon trading.

Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. (NYSE: FGP), a huge propane distributor, recently reported Nov-Jan results. Propane is still the heating source of choice for several million households. How is it that Ferrellgas saw a drop in gross profits during its winter quarter? Granted, the drop in gross profit was not huge, and revenues for the winter quarter increased 15% to $764 million.

But results like this should cause utility and energy stock investors to take a closer look at just how a utility company actually makes its money, particularly with the ongoing deregulation of many utilities. Does a utility or energy company make its money on sales of a commodity, or on renting out its distribution network? Or is the utility or energy company more of a finance company that makes (or loses) money based on its pricing of a commodity?

Such seems to be the case with Ferrellgas Partners in its recent quarter. It lost money because it priced future delivery of propane without factoring in a steep rise in the cost of propane. There is no way to predict or control winter temperatures and resulting level of demand, but a company should be able to accurately hedge its own price contracts to account for fluctuations in demand in its own industry and price its risk accordingly. Failure to adequately price risk is what has led to the subprime mortgage mess. No one wants to see energy and utility companies, and their customers, suffer the same economic debacle.

The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the CIA had warned U.S. utilities of the possibility of attacks, or threats with extortion demands, via the internet. At a conference in New Orleans attended by security officials from governments, utilities, and companies such as Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and BP (NYSE: BP), a cybersecurity analyst broke with CIA disclosure polices to detail several recent cyber intrusions outside the United States, one case resulting in a power outage that affected several cities.

Increasingly sophisticated intrusions into corporate computer systems have cost companies worldwide more than $20 billion each year, according to some estimates. And extortion is a growing threat, with attackers radically increasing their take from online gambling sites, e-commerce sites, and banks, which pay up to prevent their sites from being shut down and to avoid public knowledge their sites have been hacked.

With the rising tide of cyber attacks on the infrastructure over the past year or so, and the vulnerability of the power grid, transportation systems, and big banks becoming increasingly clear, investors have to wonder how secure the exchanges are from extortion or efforts to manipulate the markets by individuals or organized groups. The London Stock Exchange suffered a cyber attack this past June. Such attacks frequently originate from overseas, sometimes supported by foreign governments, and perpetrators can be next to impossible to track down and bring to justice.

The market's choppy / consolidating pattern continues, suggesting the need for an additional defensive play or two (or perhaps more). Further, the utilities sector fits the bill, and in this category Exelon Corp. is worth an evaluation.

Via subsidiaries, Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC) distributes electricity to 5.4 million customers in Northern Illinois (including Chicago) and southeastern Pennsylvania (including Philadelphia). EXC has 25.5 million megawatts of generating capacity and is also involved in wholesale energy sales/marketing. The company also has 480,000 natural gas customers.

Further, analysts really like Exelon's non-regulated utility operations, which should boost revenue performance in the immediate years ahead. A rate compromise agreement passed by the State of Illinois also removes a potential cloud from the company's revenue picture. The Reuters FY 2007/FY 2008 EPS consensus estimates for EXC are $4.32 to $4.40.

With the U.S. economic landscape becoming more uncertain, it's prudent to add a defensive stock or two to your portfolio, and utility FPL Group, Inc. (NYSE: FPL) is worth an evaluation.

FPL Group boasts the fundamentals analysts like to see in a utility company: steady cash flow, above-par customer growth, adequate generating capacity, and favorable power market conditions. Further, analysts also like the cooperative regulatory environment in Florida, FPL's primary state, and the company's 2.3% dividend. With operations in 24 states, FPL has diversified operationally, but the focal point, for investors, is its Florida market: 4.4 million customers, and ample land for commercial and residential growth. The Reuters FY 2007/FY 2008 EPS consensus estimates for FPL are $3.46 to $3.88.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on Florida's population growth and household formation for signs of any changes in long-term trends.

Stock Analysis: FPL Group is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from FPL's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $48.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

The odds of a 2007 Energy Bill passing the Democratic Party-led U.S. Congress, with President Bush's blessing, "Are still likely," according to a Washington-based, public policy lobbyist with knowledge of the matter.

"The bill will need a few revisions, but I'd say it's a 70/30 go, in favor of the bill being signed by the president," the lobbyist told Bloggingstocks Tuesday, on condition he not be identified by name.

The lobbyist, who represents primarily Democratic Party-based constituencies, said the the bill's renewable energy component and potential tax increases remain the hangups in the bill.

Modification likely

"More than likely President Bush will get the renewable energy component modified, but the Democrats may gain extra footing with better solar/wind energy credits," he said.

The bill current would require utilities to generate more power from renewable energy. Lawmakers from the Southeast U.S. have said they're concerned that utilities in their states will not be able to meet the requirement, due to a lack of wind power, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The US government hopes that a large number of nuclear plants will be built in the US over the next 20 years to cut the country's need for oil. But GE (NYSE: GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt says they will not be built without incentives from the Feds.

According to the FT, "Immelt said only five to 10 US nuclear power projects were likely to go ahead unless there was a carbon-pricing framework to create incentives for utilities to build more." That may be true, but GE should be quiet about championing aid for building those facilities. GE and Hitachi (NYSE: HIT) have a joint venture to build nuclear plants, and the parties would not want to be seen as sell-serving.

The comments raise a difficult issue. The government and utilities both know that the long-term future of cheap oil looks bad. But building nuclear plants take years, is expensive, and requires passing government safety standards. Over the next decade it may actually be cheaper to continue to use fossil fuels even it the price of oil stays high.

GE will make a lot of money on the move to nuclear fuel, but that does not mean that its call for government help is wrong.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Industrial Production fell 0.5% in October, considerably worse than the consensus estimate of a 0.1% production gain, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Friday. It was the largest decline in IP since January 2007. Industrial Production rose 0.2% in September.

Meanwhile, capacity utilization --- which measures the percent of plants in use --- fell to 81.7% in October from 82.2% in September. Analysts had expected a 0.1%-0.3% rise in the utilization rate.

Production at factories declined 0.4%, utility production declined 1.6%, and mining output fell 0.6%. Also telling: production of consumer durable goods dropped 0.8%.

Analysts said the October industrial production decline adds to the argument that the U.S. housing sector's woes - - the most serious housing slump in more than a decade - - are beginning to spill over into the broader economy:

"The October industrial production statistic certainly is a disappointment. Combined with lower capacity utilization, it suggests the economy is slowing, and it's something that has to concern the Fed," economist M. David Chandler told Bloggingstocks. "This puts added focus on the November and December stats. If we see industrial production slowing in those two months, Q4 will come in very, very weak, and the U.S. economy will be growing at near-stall levels."

Security guards at an Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania were found sleeping on the job, according to media reports. The Chicago-based utility company said it dropped Wackenhut as security contractor for its Peach Bottom plant and is reviewing the security firm's work at other company reactors, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer,

This couldn't have come at a worst time for the nuclear power industry whose reputation has improved over the past few years as a lesser evil to global warming-causing coal-fired power plants. NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is even proposing to build its first nuclear power plant in almost 30 years. But every time the nuclear power industry takes one step forward, it takes two steps back.

In Exelon's case, the embarrassment was captured on video by another security guard over several months and sent to New York television station WCBS-TV, The Inquirer said. The incident, involving fewer than 10 workers, is investigated by the company and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the paper said.

Exelon, of course, was mortified by the video.

"This is not acceptable and we will not tolerate it," said Exelon Generation Chief Operating Officer Chris Crane in a press release. "I want to be clear that nothing has happened at Peach Bottom that represents a security or safety threat to the public. We are dealing with unacceptable behavior, and we will fix it."

What's scary is that it's happened before. Workers were caught napping at the control room of the same nuclear power plant in the late 1980s, according to the New York Times.

Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

With U.S. long-term interest rates trending higher, a question equity investors might be asking themselves is which stocks and sectors could be affected most?

One way of analyzing the problem is to look at the historical correlation (derived from rolling 36-month windows) between monthly S&P 500 index sector returns and changes in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.

Roughly speaking, correlation measures the degree to which two sets of data points track one another. When they are positively correlated, respective changes for each period tend to have the same sign (i.e., plus or minus); when they are negatively correlated, the opposite holds true. The higher the value in absolute terms, the tighter the connection.

Up until the spring of 2003, it would have been difficult to arrive at a clear-cut answer, as the various sector-yield correlations were somewhat in synch.

Since then, however, correlations have diverged somewhat, with the utility and materials groups (which have equivalent exchange-traded funds, or ETFs (AMEX: XLU and XLB, respectively)) currently at opposite ends of a widening spectrum. That is, when yields have been rising, there has been a modest downward bias in monthly utility sector returns and a modest upward bias in materials sector returns.

Under the circumstances, a further increase in long-term interest rates (i.e., continued falling bond prices) could see the utility sector, which has already been slammed in recent weeks, under further pressure, while materials shares may offer a degree of refuge. Of course, one should always bear in mind that interest rates are not the only influence on stock prices.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.