The absolute meltdown of financial stocks -- especially names like Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) -- has landed a body blow to the performance of quite a few well-respected value investors. Most notably, Bill Miller has seen his remarkable streak of beating the S&P 500 turn miserably, with his fund down about 30% so far this year. Overall, large-cap value funds are down an average of 24% over the past year.
So what happened? Basically, the pessimistic majority was 100% right on the future of many of these financial firms and the contrarians were completely wrong. But I think there was a larger problem for many of these top value investors: they abandoned their principles and bought big into companies they didn't understand, with risks and balance sheets that no one understands.
Eugene Fama told (subscription required) The Wall Street Journal that it's "not true" that value investing is safer than other forms of investing.
I disagree. What's risky is investing in stocks that you don't understand based on superficial analysis, and that's what got people like Bill Miller in trouble.
"At the Morningstar Investment Conference, I had a chance to hear directly from manager of several of our 'best buy' funds," says fund expert Mark Salzinger.
Salzinger explains, "The managements of these equity funds are sticking to its guns. In the case of Dodge & Cox Stock, this means a continuation of a contrarian focus on large out-of-favor stocks. often in equally out-of-favor sectors.
"In the case of T. Rowe Price Equity Income, this means a continuation of focus on high quality companies that appear historically cheap based on various levels of valuation, including their dividend yield relative to the market.
"Charles Pohl, the chief investment officer of Dodge & Cox and a member of the portfolio management team on DODGX, spoke strongly about what he considers to be the attractive opportunities in financials now that the sector is so out of favor.
"He says that the Dodge & Cox team is focusing on intense analysis of companies within subsets of the financial services industry, looking for stocks that have been beaten down with their peers despite superior operations, including safer historical underwriting standards.
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) that a number of prominent value investors have unloaded their stakes in beaten down financials, booking hefty losses in the process. The highly-respected Ariel Focus Fund has dumped its stake in Citigroup (NYSE: C), booking a 24% loss over three years. Weitz Partners Value Fund has dumped stakes in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Read the Journal piece for more examples.
It's impossible to look at these sales without wondering if it's a sign of a bottom. When the most patient investors have thrown in the towel, who is left to sell? Contrarians might look at this is a sign that it's time to dive into badly beaten financial stocks with subprime exposure, but I'm not so sure.
The reason that so many prominent value investors are bailing is that there is a complete lack of visibility and transparency at so many of these names -- the solvency of the company depends on the accuracy of the valuations listed on the balance sheet, and those valuations are in question.
It might well be that the brave few who buy these names will do quite well, but it wouldn't call it investing: buying something you don't really understand is speculating, and I don't think there are too many people who really understand the financial statements of companies like Fannie and Ambac (NYSE: ABK).
"Around the globe, wind-generating capacity has been expanding at a rapid 30% clip in recent years," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter, who adds, "And 2008 is already shaping up to be even better."
The editor of Half-Priced Stocks looks at industrial product firm Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), explaining, "The company's most promising division is involved in the production of structural wind towers." Here's the advisor's of the latest addition to his "deep-discount' model portfolio.
"Led by states such as Texas and California, wind farms around the country will generate almost 50 billion kilowatt hours of electricity this year. Of course, the U.S. is still playing catch-up with many other regions.
"In fact, countries such as Spain, Portugal and Denmark all rely on wind farms for as much as one-quarter of their total power needs. Across Europe, wind turbines will account for roughly one-third of all new generating capacity installed over the next few years and could provide electricity for 90 million people by 2010.
"The outlook is even brighter in many booming, energy-hungry Asian markets. In China, installed wind power capacity surged +130% last year and will reportedly supply a great deal of the electricity needed for the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.
"Thanks to the great strides in engineering, wind turbine output has increased by a factor of ten (or higher in some cases) over the past decade.
"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."
After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'
"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.
"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.
New data from Dealogic shows that July was the fifth straight month of growth in U.S. mergers and acquisitions activity -- and the highest total since a year ago.
But it's not quite as good as it looks. The data is skewed upward by foreign bids for American companies like Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) and, according to the Associated Press, "the rise in M&A ... more likely reflects foreign companies taking advantage of the weak dollar than it does a loosening of credit."
But from an investors' perspective, the cause of the increase probably doesn't really matter. Deep value investors like Mohnish Pabrai have been struggling to post strong returns of late, in part because the private equity funds that could be relied on to buy undervalued companies a couple years ago have brought their U.S.-based activity to a hault.
But now the foreign companies and sovereign wealth funds are in the game and, from an investors' perspective, that's just as good -- whoever will buy undervalued public companies at a premium will boost returns. The low price-book, low price/earnings, contrarian investment strategies that haven't worked lately could be ready to start working again, just as they have historically.
"My ETF pick for the week is in honor of John Templeton not just because of his meeting his final summons this week at age 95 but because it highlights one of the key tenets of his legendary investment career. Templeton's first maxim was to buy at the point of 'maximum pessimism'. IRL trades at a 15% discount to net asset value.
"Ireland has gone from darling to outcast in less than a year in the eyes of the global investment community. Rather than look for markets that were performing well, Sir John built a career looking for troubled or ignored markets that traded at attractive valuations.
"Due to vastly overvalued property markets and loose banking and fiscal policy, the market is done close to 70% since last fall. It's growth rate has averaged 7-8% during the past decade but growth prospects have been officially lowered to zero for 2009 and its economy actually shrank in the first quarter of this year.
"To make matters worse, property prices in the posh retail areas of Dublin have already dropped 50% and home prices have fallen 20%. Ireland's stock market is now the cheapest market in the world based on forward price earnings and price to book."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.
I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.
My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.
Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.
"USEC (NYSE: USU) is the nation's leading supplier of enriched uranium for use in commercial nuclear power plants -- in fact, it is the only supplier," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, he explains, "Low-enriched uranium is commonly used as fuel in nuclear reactors, and no other company in the U.S. provides it, giving USEC a dominant position in a key niche market." Here is his review.
"Its competitive advantage? USEC has the single best competitive advantage there is: zero competition -- at least in the United States. While the firm does have a handful of rivals overseas, it has reaped the benefit of being the lone U.S. supplier.
"The company has also been awarded lucrative contracts to perform work for the U.S. Department of Defense.
"The company also benefits from the nation's longstanding nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Russia. Specifically, it participates in the salvaging of old Soviet nuclear warheads under the 'Megatons to Megawatts' program, which essentially gives the firm a sharply discounted source of uranium.
In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, value investor Nathan Slaughter recently assessed stocks based on the general investment philosophy of Benjamin Graham, the noted value investor under whom Warren Buffett studied.
One issue that stands out in his view is Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), one of the world's largest specialty retailers of hunting and fishing gear, camping equipment, and outdoor apparel.
"The cornerstone to Graham's success and his enduring legacy to value investors was his 'margin of safety' concept. Specifically, he would take a hard look at dividend yields, price-to-book ratios, and other key metrics.
"Cabela's originated as a direct marketer and once primarily sold its products via catalog, but has since augmented that distribution channel with e-commerce operations and a growing chain of nearly 30 stores spread throughout 19 states.
"Right now, we have a rare opportunity to get paid a monthly double-digit dividend and buy the skills of a legendary investment manager for only 85 cents on the dollar," says Dr. Steve Sjuggerud.
Here, in Daily Wealth, the advisor takes a look at David Dreman -- -- noted contrarian advisor -- and the opportunity currently offered in his closed-end fund, Dreman Value Income Edge Fund (NYSE: DHG).
"David Dreman made one of the greatest calls in stock market history. In 1980, he told investors to buy stocks. He didn't just tell a few clients or friends to buy stocks.
"He literally wrote the book on buying stocks in 1980 -- Contrarian Investment Strategies in which he argued, 'The stock market appears cheap by nearly every historical standard.'
"At the time, saying 'buy stocks' was bold stuff. Stocks hadn't made money in 17 years. But Dreman was absolutely right. After 17 years of losses, the stock market started the longest bull run in recorded history, which stretched from 1982 until 2000.
"Fast forward to 2008. Dreman is guarded, but optimistic again. In the May issue of Forbes he says: 'Frightening as the markets look today, there will come a time when the liquidity crisis ends and today's prices for bank stocks look, in retrospect, like bargains.'
While researching GPS maker Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN) -- whose stock has lost two-thirds of its value in the last six months -- I can't help but pity those long-term shareholders who reject trend following and technical analysis in favor of investing for the long term. To them, it seemed like only yesterday that GPS was one of the hottest technologies around and this industry leader could do no wrong.
Well, that's usually the time to sell, just as I posted on Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) in January this year and on Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) in November last year, both before they each dropped 40% in just a few months. Because the truth is these popular technology stocks are all expectations. We're not talking Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)-type value investing here.
Sure, GPS is still hot, somewhat, but due to intense competition, margins have been evaporating, forcing analysts to lower their earnings estimates. In their latest quarter, Garmin further strengthened the bear case with spiking inventories and accounts receivable. None of that looks to change anytime soon, and even though it's got a P/E of 10, book value is all the way down near $11 per share!
Nathan Slaugher sees video game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME) benefiting from several popular new video software titles. Here's the advisor's latest review from his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter.
"The shares of have staged an impressive rally, vaulting over 30% since the beginning of March. Most of those gains followed the firm's fourth-quarter earnings release, which showed more of the same phenomenal growth that we've grown accustomed to.
"Driven by brisk demand for popular software titles like Activision's Call of Duty 4 and Electronic Arts' Rock Band, same-store sales jumped 17.4%, pushing overall revenues ahead nearly 25% to $2.9 billion.
"Meanwhile, despite the quarter being one week shorter, earnings soared 46% to $190 million, or $1.14 per share -- ahead of optimistic guidance that had been raised not once, but twice.
"Value stocks are those whose prices are relatively low compared to their fundamental value, as measured by factors such as earnings and net worth," notes Mark Hulbert.
"Value stocks can be considered all-season stocks, as history shows that they can perform well in both up and down markets." Here, the editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest also offers a list of value stocks that recommended by the most advisors who have also beaten the broad market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis.
"Value stocks are to be distinguished from so-called growth stocks, which have relatively high price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios.
"Consider first how value stocks perform during bear markets. Believe it or not, they on average actually tend to make money. It's not only that they lose less money than the overall market, they actually gain.
"Take the 2000-2002 bear market, for example, during which the overall stock market declined by 48.6% (as measured by the dividend-adjusted version of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001:Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
"In contrast, according to data compiled by University of Chicago finance professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth University finance professor Kenneth French, the average value stock over this time gained over 80%.
The latest issue of Barron's is suggesting that investors may want to look at beaten down, debt-laden companies(subscription required):
Blackstone Group, Apollo Management and the rest of the private-equity crowd may be sidelined by the mess in the credit markets, but investors still can play at their game by purchasing shares of debt-laden companies in the public markets.
Barron's goes on to suggest that, if credit markets stabilize, some companies with heavy debt loads will rebound well. I don't dispute this analysis but I also don't think most investors should go chasing companies with big debt loads. It's always struck me as being somewhat akin to tiptoeing in front of steamrollers to pick up a penny. I've never bought shares of a company with a lot of debt. Sophisticated investors with an ability to really understand the debt, how it's structured, and the risks that go with it may do well with these companies. But if that isn't you, I think your best bet is to stay away.
As Barron's warns, the ultimate danger with investing in heavily leveraged companies is bankruptcy. If you're a disciple of Warren Buffett's first and second rules of investing -- don't lose money and don't forget rule number 1 -- this probably isn't a game you want to be playing.