"We are moving headlong into oil," notes John Reese, who analyzes stocks based on the criteria used by "legendary" investors such as Buffett, Graham and Lynch.
In his Validea newsletter, he says, "My fundamental models indicate that the oil industry is where the best values in the market are." Here's a look at W&T Offshore (NYSE: WTI), which is based on the criteria used by contrarian David Dreman.
"The economy and stock market have gone through a legitimate crisis because of the credit woes, and it takes time for something like that to work itself out.
"But the important thing to remember is that we've been through financial crises before -- even bad-debt financial crises like this one -- and the market has always stabilized and then pushed higher.
"And history has shown that those who can stick with the stock market through down times like these will be rewarded.
"David Dreman -- one of the gurus I base my strategies on -- notes in his recent Forbes column, 'If you pack up now, chances are you'll miss a good part of the next bull market. A large part of the gains are always made in the first few months of one, when market-timing investors are still on the sidelines.'
"If you think filling up an SUV is painful, try footing the bill for a massive 1,000-foot ocean liner -- or in the case of Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), an entire fleet of 84 floating cities," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In his Half-Priced Stocks he explains, "Despite unprecedented fuel costs, the company continues to power forward." Here's his bullish review.
"Last quarter, Carnival shelled out $530 per metric ton for fuel, up sharply from $330 per ton a year ago. And after pumping about 800,000 metric tons, the company rang up a total fuel bill of $425 million.
"For the year, management is expecting fuel costs to come in about $750 million higher than in 2007, which will trim earnings by about $0.92 per share. Fortunately, the company is in a position to absorb those higher costs.
"Over the past three months, two million passengers have boarded a Carnival ship, for an occupancy rate of 104.8% (indicating some berths held more than two guests). And those visitors paid $2.6 billion for their tickets and plunked down another $743 million in the lounges, casinos and gift shops after they arrived on board.
The news couldn't get much worse. Commodity prices keep soaring, consumer confidence is in the gutter, inflation has reared its ugly head, the US dollar loses value by the day and each day we read of more company layoffs. With all this seemingly endless stream of negativity the question is if now is the time to start buying stocks?
There is an old investing adage that says that you should invest when there is "blood in the streets." There is no doubt that it takes some serious courage to buy stocks at this point, but if you are a long term investor, you have to think that the tide will turn at some point in the not too distant future. I know many of you will say that we haven't even gotten close to hearing the worst of the news. That we are in store for consumer bankruptcies, and maybe a large bank or two to fail. My point is that the market is already pricing that in. Or at least most of that has been priced in. Even stocks like Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have fallen to levels that they could be considered value stocks as opposed to growth stories. Stocks just seem cheap.
No one can predict if the market will drop another 15% from our current levels. What is indisputable is that the market is selling at a large discount to where we were eight months ago. While some of the sell-off is justified, keep in mind that the market generally overshoots both when it rises and when it falls.Then it finds a middle ground.
With all of today's bad news, maybe it's time to back up the truck and start buying stocks.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.
"USEC (NYSE: USU) is the nation's leading supplier of enriched uranium for use in commercial nuclear power plants -- in fact, it is the only supplier," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, he explains, "Low-enriched uranium is commonly used as fuel in nuclear reactors, and no other company in the U.S. provides it, giving USEC a dominant position in a key niche market." Here is his review.
"Its competitive advantage? USEC has the single best competitive advantage there is: zero competition -- at least in the United States. While the firm does have a handful of rivals overseas, it has reaped the benefit of being the lone U.S. supplier.
"The company has also been awarded lucrative contracts to perform work for the U.S. Department of Defense.
"The company also benefits from the nation's longstanding nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Russia. Specifically, it participates in the salvaging of old Soviet nuclear warheads under the 'Megatons to Megawatts' program, which essentially gives the firm a sharply discounted source of uranium.
"The indiscriminate sell-off in the financial sector has left some banks at valuations that haven't been seen in 20 years," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, the advisors looks to one out-of-favor favorite among banks: Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). Incidentally, he notes that Warren Buffett recently added to his position in the banking stock.
"US Bancorp is the nation's sixth-largest bank in terms of assets, with nearly $238 billion at last count. The firm operates over 2,500 branches in 24 states, mostly in the western and midwestern parts of the country, including an established presence in key markets such as St. Louis, Denver and Seattle.
"Over the past year, the company has seen solid increases in both loans and deposits. More importantly, it paid out just 3.8% on those interest-bearing liabilities, far below what it earned on loans and other investments -- with the net interest margin expanding to 3.91%.
"And, that rate could move even higher in the coming months thanks to a more favorable interest rate environment. And as for credit quality, U.S. Bank remains at the very top of its peer group.
"Value stocks are those whose prices are relatively low compared to their fundamental value, as measured by factors such as earnings and net worth," notes Mark Hulbert.
"Value stocks can be considered all-season stocks, as history shows that they can perform well in both up and down markets." Here, the editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest also offers a list of value stocks that recommended by the most advisors who have also beaten the broad market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis.
"Value stocks are to be distinguished from so-called growth stocks, which have relatively high price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios.
"Consider first how value stocks perform during bear markets. Believe it or not, they on average actually tend to make money. It's not only that they lose less money than the overall market, they actually gain.
"Take the 2000-2002 bear market, for example, during which the overall stock market declined by 48.6% (as measured by the dividend-adjusted version of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001:Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
"In contrast, according to data compiled by University of Chicago finance professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth University finance professor Kenneth French, the average value stock over this time gained over 80%.
The advisor explains, "Enterprise is among the nation's largest pipeline operators, owning nearly 900 miles of crude oil pipelines and 33,000 miles of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL), and petrochemical pipelines." Here is his review.
"Following a series of acquisitions, Enterprise is now one of the nation's largest publicly-traded energy partnerships. As a master limited partnership (MLP), the company is generally exempt from federal income taxes, provided it distributes the lion's share of its cash flows to shareholders (technically referred to as unitholders.)
"This special status allows MLPs to shell out generous payments, although these distributions typically don't qualify for the reduced 15% dividend tax rate.
"As opposed to the 'upstream' business of exploration and production, Enterprise is a 'midstream' energy player -- a sector coveted for its steady cash generation potential. Much of Enterprise's diverse revenue stream comes from pipeline charges, which are influenced more by volume flow than by volatile commodity prices.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Pool Corp. (NASDAQ: POOL) is my favorite speculative idea for 2008," says Nathan Slaughter, editor of Half-Priced Stocks. "Pool Corp. is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies -- selling more than 100,000 different products from a nationwide network of 285 customer service centers.
'Sales have advanced 21% annually over the past decade, and earnings have more than kept pace -- climbing at a stellar 34% clip. Naturally, all of this has translated into hefty gains for shareholders, with the stock soaring almost 1,000% over the past ten years.
"In recent months, though, the company has been an indirect victim of the sluggish housing market, as a slowdown in new home construction in key markets like Arizona and California has forced management to trim back its full-year earnings guidance.
"However, don't let this short-term weakness cloud the sunny long-term outlook. The vast majority of the company's business is tied to maintenance for older pools. Only around one-third of its revenues stem from new pool construction -- and the bulk of that comes from existing homes, not new ones.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My conservative choice for 2008 is The Men's Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW), one of the largest specialty retailers of men's suits," says value investor Charles Mizrahi, editor of Hidden Values Alert.
"Men's Wearhouse stores offer a broad selection of designer, brand-name and private label merchandise at prices 20% to 30% below the regular prices found at traditional department and specialty stores.
"The firm's US operations include 636 retail apparel stores. The brand targets middle- and upper-middle-income men by offering quality merchandise at everyday low prices. In addition to value, the company believes it provides a superior level of customer service.
"The shares outstanding have decreased by 10% over the past five years. In addition, long-term debt/equity is only 9% and it has $135 million in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet (as of August 7, 2007).
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My 'home run' speculation for 2008 is The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), a retailer of medium- to better-priced casual apparel, footwear and accessories for fashion-conscious young men and women," says value investor Charles Mizrahi, editor of Hidden Values Alert.
"The company focuses on personal service, including free alterations, free gift-wrapping,easy layaways, the Buckle private-label credit card and a frequent shopper program. The Buckle operates 350 retail stores in 38 states. Most stores are located in regional, high-traffic shopping malls and lifestyle centers.
"The balance sheet is strong with $157 million in cash and current liabilities of only $56 million. Net profit margin is 11.5%, in line with previous years. The company has no long-term debt, and management and directors own 56.1% of outstanding shares.
"BKE is a good company, and a price of $32 or less per share represents very good value. If BKE can grow earnings at 11% per annum and maintain a P/E of 15, the stock will handsomely reward investors in the next five years."
For several years, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was considered one of the most successful companies in America. It used its cable franchise to build a huge broadband, VOD, and VoIP cash machine. The so-called "triple play" of voice, TV, and broadband could not be matched by telecom competitors, so Comcast took hundreds of thousands of phone customers away from them each quarter.
From mid-2003 to early 2007, Comcast shares rose close to 100%. During the last three months, they are down 27%.
It finally occurred to Wall Street that competition from satellite TV and the new fiber-to-the-home products from telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE:VZ) were eating into Comcast's customer base. The company recently announced that its growth and cash flow would be less than expected. Customer growth was slowing and the firm had to put more money into infrastructure so that it could improve offerings for products like HDTV.
An influential cable analyst, Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, says the slide in Comcast shares is over. According toBarron's the analyst"notes that the stock's multiples have been compressed to historic lows." He also thinks EPS and free cash flow could grow as much as 20% a year, if Comcast can keep adding voice and HDTV customers.
The logic for Comcast making a comeback may be a little thin. Verizon's FiOS is taking customers from Comcast and it is only in a small fraction of the 18 million homes that will eventually have access to the service.That means that the head-to-head competition for the cable company will actually increase. And satellite TV companies continue to ramp up their programming and HDTV offering.
The worst is probably not over for Comcast.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Six months ago I got all excited about "My pal Warren's" little company and decided it was due for another run when I posted Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now . Every investor who is in the market for a while gets to know some companies better than others and this is one I own and have been following for some time. This stock is a Triple-A, large cap that has trounced most everything else for quite some time. However, what suprises me and allows me to make money on it is the frequency with which Wall Street under-appreciates Mr. Buffett and under-values his company. The following is an excerpt from the June post.
Ooooh yes, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) is a value, and it will be all the more so if this market takes a summer swoon, or global markets shift, or big caps take the lead. If you are just starting out and want to have a diversified solid foundation, this is a good stock to start with. You will also be a part of a special club receiving the golden words of Buffett in the annual report, although they are on the BRK website for all to see already.
In August when things were becoming a little more dicey I posted Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett? stimulated by the notion that T-Bills had very limited value. Shareholders and long time Berkshire watchers are well aware of the stock pattern for BRK.A / B, it trades in a very tight range for several years while all the while it's earnings are growing, P/E shrinking, and shareholder equity and book value build-up becoming more tempting until the cork pops off the bottle. On June 11, 2007 when I started ranting about the opportunity you could have bought "B" shares for $3,612. Yesterday it closed at $4,905 for a six month gain of 35.8%, or you could have accepted about 2.4% on the T-Bill over the same period -- "guaranteed".
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed that is has taken a 6.4% stake in CarMax (NYSE: KMX)," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.
CarMax, the used-car retailer, is a holding in Half-Priced Stocks, and the advisor sees Buffett's interest as an additional reason to stay bullish. Here is his review.
"Berkshire Hathaway is the insurance and investing conglomerate controlled by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, whose moves are widely followed by Wall Street.
"It's impossible to know for sure if Berkshire's stake is the result of Buffett's own buying or that of one of Berkshire's subsidiary companies, but either way it's a vote of confidence for CarMax. KMX has been sliding in recent months due to fears that a consumer slump would impact sales of used cars. But we continue to believe those concerns are overblown.
"The companies that will fare the best when the next credit crunch hits are those that have large amounts of cash," says turnaround expert George Putnam. "With that in mind," he adds, " we looked for companies with lots of cash, little debt and good businesses in some form of a turnaround."
Putnam explains, "Corning has transformed itself from a marketer of housewares into a leading provider of optical fiber as well as precision glass used in liquid-crystal displays. It also has a presence in the environmental and life sciences industries.
"You don't need to be a motorcycle enthusiast to be familiar with the powerful Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) brand name," notes Nathan Slaughter in his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter.
"In fact," he adds, "Harley-Davidson doesn't have a single major U.S-based competitor -- something very few companies can claim."
The value investor explains, "For those that do enjoy riding on the open road, Harley-Davidson is practically a lifestyle unto itself. With over 1,300 dealerships in 60 countries around the world, the firm has carved out an impressive share of the heavyweight motorcycle market and delivered record revenues for 20 consecutive years."
Slaughter continues, "Founded in 1903, the company now boasts over one million members in the Harley Owners Group (HOG) and enjoys an intensely loyal customer base that few rivals have been able to penetrate.
"And like other companies with entrenched brand names, Harley-Davidson is able to command premium prices for its products. As a result, margins have expanded dramatically and earnings have consistently outpaced revenues -- climbing 23% annually over the past decade.
"This built-in competitive advantage also shows up in lofty returns on capital that currently stand above 30%. Better still, the shareholder-friendly management team isn't shy about returning excess cash to shareholders. In fact, the company repurchased 19.3 million shares last year, and dividends have been hiked in each of the past 13 years.