So, a week ago, I decided to tackle the NFL's blackout policy, basically arguing that the current economic situation warrants the lifting of this archaic rule. That said, the topic has been in the collective conscience this week, what with the NFL kicking off on Thursday.

What is interesting is that several teams (including the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and my Cincinnati Bengals) have been granted a 24-hour extension to get these games sold out. Typically, a team needs to be a couple of thousand tickets away from a sell out in order to get such an extension. I wonder first if this extension may have been made to placate the teams more than to allow the fans another day to get the games sold out.

Continue reading JockStocks: Is the NFL lifting its blackout rule? Not quite

JockStocks: Is the NFL lifting its blackout rule? Not quite originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

While in an airport bookstore recently, this title caught me eye: How to Build a Business Warren Buffett Would Buy: The R.C. Willey Story.

How could I resist? I bought a copy and read the whole thing on my flight (OK, the book is only 192 pages).

The author of the book, Jeff Benedict, tracks the entrepreneurial career of Bill Child, who transformed a furniture business -- R.C. Willey -- into a retailing giant (he came on board the company in the mid 1950s when his father-in-law died).

Continue reading Entrepreneur's Journal: Building a business that Buffett would buy

Entrepreneur's Journal: Building a business that Buffett would buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 14 Jun 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) saw a nice increase in its bottom-line profit. The retailer, which reported earnings for the first quarter earlier this week, said it made 66 cents per share, good for an increase of more than 37%. Revenues increased 14%, and same-store sales went up a whopping 9%. So many retailers would absolutely kill to have that same-store number.

It's no secret why Dollar Tree is thriving. Bad economy plus items-that-sell-for-a-dollar-each equals retail success. Brand equity is important. So is convenience. But a cheap price point oftentimes trumps all.

Continue reading Dollar Tree sells cheap items, but it has rich quarter

Dollar Tree sells cheap items, but it has rich quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 May 2009 09:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Starbucks $3.95 breakfast: Brand-new day?

Starbucks $3.95 breakfast: Brand-new day? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Starbucks reveals details on budget breakfast

Starbucks reveals details on budget breakfast originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Feb 2009 18:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bloomberg is out with a special report detailing how cheap stocks are on a historical basis. With the slide we had into the end of 2007, the stock market now provides investors with the cheapest valuations in 30 years.

Some interesting morsels:

• "Telephone company stocks became the least expensive group in the MSCI World Index compared with the cash they produced."
• "A majority of Japan's companies trade at less than half their net assets as profits and wages contract in the world's second-largest economy."
• " Stocks fell to the lowest last month relative to bonds since the 1970s, according to the so-called Fed model, which was cited by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan a decade ago."
  • The last time the spread was wider, equities outperformed debt by 24 percentage points in the next 12 months, according to Lehman Brothers, as cited by Bloomberg.
• Japan is the first of the world's 10 biggest stock markets to enter a bear market.
  • "Japan is the only developed country left where you have what I would call Benjamin Graham-type stocks," said an asset manager interviewed by Bloomberg.

Continue reading On sale: Cheap stocks keep getting cheaper

On sale: Cheap stocks keep getting cheaper originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 Jan 2008 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This market is either a bargain hunter's paradise or a trap for the gullible.

As Bloomberg News notes, shares of software companies in the S&P 500 are trading 20.8 times their estimated profit, their lowest level since at least 1995 and industrial companies trade at 18.4 times earnings, lower than their average of 23.4 this decade. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 for August was the lowest since November 1995, according to Bloomberg.

Echoing the sentiment of many bulls, AIM Investments' Fritz Meyer told Bloomberg that, "The market's probably seen the worst of it" and that the Fed will "ultimately ride to the rescue."

Really?

The housing market isn't improving any time soon. Retail sales are lackluster and consumer confidence remains shaky. And I'm not so sure that the Fed is too eager to ride to anyone's rescue. Chairman Ben Bernanke, as I've argued before, doesn't seem like he's eager to cut rates though the pundits say something will get done even if the Fed has to hold its nose.

Expectations are high which means that the potential for disappointment is huge. Today's bargains may stay cheap for quite some time. That doesn't mean people should avoid the market entirely. They just need to keep their expectations realistic.

Stocks are at their cheapest levels in 12 years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Sep 2007 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Amazon has been what Wall Streeters call a "stalled-story". That means the company took most of 2004-2006 to build very expensive infrastructure and spent heavily on heavy marketing expenses to acquire customers. This spending spree took the winds out of Amazon's sails for those three years. Earnings growth, visibility and momentum suffered as did the share price.

Amazon: A long-term investment or a short-term trade? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Jul 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market declines continue and I think the worst is yet to come. Opportunity is pounding at your door and some prudent money shuffling might reward you with some real value buys out there. I've done some stock tip searching to find companies that are being pointed out at as considerably undervalued. I'm providing you the names and links, but you need to do the homework. As always, be certain of the tax ramifications before you move that money around.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) has been identified by more than one analyst as being undervalued. Similar to General Electric (NYSE: GE), it's a matter of perceived value more than a balance sheet issue.

Zac Bissonnette wrote today about the value condition of Adams Golf Inc. (OTCBB: ADGO). You'll probably want to check that one out.

In the energy sector, Harvest Natural Resources (NYSE: HNR) is being pointed at as undervalued. Activity is picking up slightly on that name today. It might be a nice time to jump in. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is also being mentioned as currently undervalued, although I can't imagine why.

Continue reading Some leads for possible undervalued stocks

Some leads for possible undervalued stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Jun 2007 13:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has expanded its footprint from PC and server operating systems to internet portals and video games. Now, it is going a step further to help create the impression that it is still one of the leading edge developers in the tech community.

The world's largest software company has introduced a computer that looks like a table and works with a touchscreen. The first markets for the new product, named Surface, will be hotels and casinos where it can be used to buy tickets and play games.

The new product is a pet of Bill Gates, who believes that the next generation of PCs will need to be more intuitive and easier to use. The new product runs the Microsoft Vista OS.

If Gates is right, the new method for using PCs, making them extensions of hand motions and writing instruments could be very good news for companies beyond Microsoft. As PC sales have slowed, firms that are PC-centric including Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), AMD (NYSE: AMD), and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) have suffered.

That may change now if a new generation of PCs drives better sales.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Microsoft steps up innovation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 May 2007 09:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A new piece from BusinessWeek showcases Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) victory over nearly all of its competitors in the TV pricing war. Wal-Mart's decision to offer a 42-inch flat panel television for the unheard-of price of $988 wreaked havoc for stores like Circuit City, Tweeter, Best Buy, and Rex Stores.

This is a great example of why all the negative press that Wal-Mart receives probably won't effect it nearly as much as its critics would like. People might complain about the company's employment practices, complain when a local mom and pop goes under, or subscribe to anti-Wal Mart newsletters. But who is going to pay $500 more for a television as a matter of principle? For all the criticism of Wal-Mart's customer service, it isn't bad enough to go next door to pay more.

The triumph of Wal-Mart is the triumph of price. Given a choice between quality and service and price, most people will choose price on items like televisions. However, I think Wal-Mart will encounter greater resistance in its foray into areas like organic foods. That demographic is likely to be less easily swayed by the promise of a better deal.

Wal-Mart kills competition on TV sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Apr 2007 20:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

I was preparing to make a sandwich recently, which for me is quite an undertaking. The ingredients need to be fresh, sliced to appropriate thickness and of the tastiest varieties. I got out all the fixin's and took hold of the appropriate tools, then I realized that I was missing one key ingredient. I was yet to procure the mayonnaise.

I went into the refrigerator where I knew I'd find the delectably smooth and scrumptious stuff. You can probably imagine my shock when I found not one but two brand new unopened squeeze bottles of mayonnaise right there on the door shelf in between the horse radish and the barbecue sauce. As if that wasn't trouble enough, when I reached in to take one of the bottles for my project, I realized that each of the bottles was a different brand. Oh the sheer unfairness of it, that meant I would have to decide which brand would appropriately bless my sandwich.

Rather than make a rash decision by simply grabbing a bottle and applying the dressing, I decided to carefully weigh my mayonnaise choice. After all, I wanted the perfect mayo for the perfect sandwich. I already knew that the two products were nearly identical in taste and texture. I needed to find the deeper meaning. I grasped both bottles, one in each hand, and carefully initiated my sandwich dressing analysis. Both bottles were plastic and totally squeezable. Each had appropriate tamper protection and a wide, flip-top cap that can be used to stand the bottle inverted. Each had a serving opening designed to apply the mayo in a flat ribbon outlay. The caps were blue and the bottles were clear. So far it was a dead heat.

Continue reading Hellmann's vs. Kraft mayonnaise: Battle of the Brands

Hellmann's vs. Kraft mayonnaise: Battle of the Brands originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 08 Apr 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Private equity firms, hedge funds, and investment banks are always looking for hidden values in public shares. It is no accident that an investor like Carl Icahn buys into Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT). He thinks the company's intrinsic value is well above the stock price.

24/7 Wall St. has begun to take a look at the break-up values of a number of large cap companies. Firms with market caps of over $100 billion have been kept off the list because they are likely to be too large for private equity buy-outs. But the companies on this list may well end up as targets. The full explanation of the methodology is here.

Some of the notable public firms with differences between the break-up value and current stock price include:

Continue reading Stock prices re-examined: Break-up values for Apple, Disney, eBay, and more

Stock prices re-examined: Break-up values for Apple, Disney, eBay, and more originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Jan 2007 13:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A Bloggingstocks reader recently scolded me for mentioning General Electric (NYSE:GE) too often. The reader claims that if I mention the stock it will drop in value again. The reader called it a jinx but I know it's not me, so of course being the loud mouth I am, here I go again. You may file this under "Being told to sit down and shut up never worked for me."

I myself have noticed (though not documented) the enigmatic traveling of General Electric share value. GE makes an advancement... share value declines. GE acquires a profit center... share value declines. GE appoints a stellar performer to an important position... share value declines. Market analysts or writers tout the stock... share value declines. Even after lemming leader Jim Cramer took a positive spin on GE, the inevitable value decline occurred.

By applying that portion of my brain in which resides a bit of healthy paranoia and by analyzing the present situation surrounding GE share value movements, my little experiment has led to one undeniable conclusion. There's an unexplainable dynamic at work here. Yes, the markets do often operate in ways that defy logic, but we've opened GE for discussion often enough that even if we can't find logic we can now assess the deeper patterns. I guess my training in police sciences may pay off after all...

So here's the game plan all you statisticians: Get your pencils out and get your brains in gear. What is the hidden force that is controlling GE share value here? I sure can't figure it out. Who's doing the buying and selling? Who is setting the share price? What insider transactions are taking place? Why are institutional investors so light in this stock? Why are investors so shy of this red hot bargain??? I'll entertain any and all theories on this situation. Conspiracy theories or cold hard calculations are welcome. Either way, over the last 60 days GE stock has been terribly battered without any good reason which I can find.

It's time for someone to explain why this stock is under $40.

General Electric: Let the hunt begin... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Jan 2007 14:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My fellow blogger, Sheldon Liber left an invitation for explanations revealing the causes of what I shall term, "The great Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) hype of 2006". I am one of the people who have bought into that hype but it's a hype you can bank on. There seems to still be some confusion as to why Google is found by so many to be so attractive as an investment. Really friends, how do you place a benchmark or limit on such a forward operating company?

Remember as you read this that I'm not your run of the mill financial analyst. I'm not a financial analyst at all. I'm just a guy who has a special knack for getting some insight into what the consumer is probably thinking. So when I write about the magical way in which Google has swept onto the Internet with such great force, it's not about money to me. It's about quality, presentation and consumer confidence among other things.

Continue reading The Google hype, is it madness, marketing or money?

The Google hype, is it madness, marketing or money? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 Dec 2006 12:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I rattled some cages by pulling back the curtain on General Electric (NYSE: GE). I did that for good reason. The way I see it, there are going to be some significant readjustments in the markets starting early next year. The heady upward spiral we've been watching just can't go on forever. I'm sorry I have to make that call but that's the way I see it. Values have to equalize sometime. Overvaluations need to recede and correct. I'm thinking it's time now to pull some profit, take a stance, and brace yourself for a bit of a downward ride.

That's why I'm so high on GE. In my view there's no better place to shore up some funds. In fact, I have heard of GE as being referred to as a marvelous hedge of protection when times get volatile. It sure looks that way to me. In his recent statement to investors, GE chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt made his declaration of his company's strategic position clear and strong. Consistent growth, responsible investment, conservative diversification, and quality people, these are the things which Mr. Immelt banks on. This one handy quote from CEO Immelt puts GE's performance for 2006 into a nice sturdy package:

"The year is going to be a good year. Revenue will be $163 billion, up 10%. Earnings will be $20.5 billion, up 12%. Earnings per share up 15 or 16%. Cash flow at $25 billion, up 15%. Two point expansion and return on total capital and a pretty attractive segment profile. If you look across the company, really the only business that is turnaround mode is NBC Universal."

Continue reading Revisiting General Electric with good reason

Revisiting General Electric with good reason originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 Dec 2006 11:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Breakfast for a dollar: will McDonald's win the battle of the a.m.? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Dec 2006 22:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Google closed down yesterday finishing at $367.23 per share on a day when the rest of the market moved notably upward. Although I have been very vocal about the stock price being overvalued in my Blogging Stocks posts, (see: 10 Reasons I think Google is going down), Google remains a very good company with a growing brand providing valuable services. So this begs the question: What is GOOG stock worth?

I'm not in the prediction business, I am in the investment business. Is there a price I would pay? Certainly. That price is unquestionably less than most other investors would pay because I always look for deep value. But is there a "fair market value?"

That's a very difficult question because the price is determined by what the last trader feels the stock is worth -- not everyone, not a consensus. For example, if you own a stock that you bought at $20 and it's now trading at $40, and you are holding on long term, then you are not a factor during the day when traders are moving the price up or down a few bucks. Your opinion on the value that day is silent and has no bearing on the price.

In trying to assess what the potential appreciation of the stock might be next year I had to make an assumption about the P/E ratio. This is based on what I envision is the level most traders will be willing to pay. If you use a P/E ratio of 40 and look twelve months out and assume Google's earnings continue to grow on a slower but still strong trajectory, you are looking at a lot of potential upside from here. GOOG's trailing twelve month EPS is $6.82. If it hits EPS of $12 then you might arrive at a value of $480. These are figures commonly discussed in the business pages and by analysts. Some of the thoughtful comments I have received to my posts suggest the same thing. Of course we have read higher estimates by Piper Jaffrey analysts who reached a $600 valuation. But to get there you must allow for EPS of $15 or a P/E of 50. That I am not willing to do, are you?

Continue reading What IS Google worth?

What IS Google worth? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Aug 2006 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yes, Wal-Mart is down sharply this morning and yes, it was downgraded by Merill Lynch. Yes, it might go lower still.

Call me a contrarian -- I have been called worse -- but I think the stock is getting attractive. I want to buy stocks on sale.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is too big to stay out of the news and most of what we have heard the past year seems to have weighed down the stock. Its trailing P/E is slightly below the S&P average at 16.85. but that is nothing to get excited about.

What drew my attention to WMT is its incredibly low price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.62. (source, AOL Money & Finance). Other positives I see:

- WMT has a five year earnings-per-share (EPS) growth rate of just under 14%, a return-on-equity (ROE) of over 23% which is higher than their P/E, another good sign and a return-on-invested-capital (ROIC) of over 14%. It has a 1.4% dividend yield growing at 20% rate over the past five years and plenty of cash (about $7B)with no debt, manageable debt (thanks Stacey for pointing out my earlier mistake -- haste makes waste writing at 4:00 AM), so that yield is probably very secure.

Continue reading Wal-Mart downgraded, but getting tempting

Wal-Mart downgraded, but getting tempting originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Jul 2006 18:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There is only one Warren Buffett and there will never be another! He is the product of a set of circumstances that will not repeat itself. It is more likely that you will fly first.

I say this because we often are told that everyone is replaceable. Well, if you poke your head in the Senate or House looking for a Washington, or Adams, or Jefferson, or Franklin you will not find one. Buffett has become a national treasure and someday we may find his face on the currency because he is one of our greatest non-elected statesman and I figure it is not necessary for him to be a dead president to represent us.

He has the clear vision and insight that allows him to see all those things that are in plain view to everyone but we miss anyway, that is, until he points them out. A little bit of Will Rogers, combining wit and wisdom.

Continue reading You can't be Warren Buffett. You'll FLY first

You can't be Warren Buffett. You'll FLY first originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Jun 2006 15:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.