What a week it was and it is starting off with more of the same! The day before Halloween the market gets spooked. The Dow drops 200 one day, rises 200 the next, and falls 250 to close the week. Yes, financial pundits could point to meaningful stories about the dollars rise, consumer spending sagging, the recession ending and so forth to explain market reactions but there is more to it than that.

Even among the 15 positions discussed in Where should granny put $50,000? only the Vanguard Total Bond Market exchange-traded fund (NYSE: BND) and the Kellogg Co (NYSE: K) were up last Friday. Good thing I advised "granny" to put half her funds in the ETF.

One of my wonderful friends, Ms. P, asked me for some guidance on how she might allocate $50,000 currently earning peanuts in a money market account. Though she is decades from becoming a grandmother, after a brief discussion about her financial parameters, it became clear to me that she was looking for a "granny fund."

In reality, my recommendations would be suitable, and perhaps desirable, for many passive investors as well.

The $50,000 is a portion of money Ms. P has set aside to purchase a home, which might happen in six months, but could also be pushed out further, depending on the economy and her situation. Basically, she wants to cover all her bases because she might need the money at any time and does not want to be caught short, while at the same time she would like to generate some revenue without taking any big risks.

If you're looking for the most accurate way to predict the direction a stock or the market is headed, technical analysis is it.

Of course, no chart pattern is accurate all of the time (which is why technical analysis is more of an art than a science), but it's the closest you're going to get to a sure thing in the stock market.

So I'm offering up six technical trades today. Each of these stocks' charts are giving off extremely bullish signals and look ready to run higher.

One of the most valuable commodities in the world is water -- without it, mankind can't survive. While more than 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by water, but 97% of it is saltwater and only 1% of the remaining 3% is readily available for consumption. Water is becoming scarce, and upcoming water shortages are emerging as the population of the world increases, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Mexico.

A great way to include water as part of your portfolio's commodity allocation is by buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF). An ETF is a basket of stocks that allow you to invest in a single asset class, sector, country, or theme with one stock. In one ETF, you'll own not only water utility companies but also related businesses, like those that help build the infrastructure for making water suitable for drinking. You won't have to pick a single stock, rather you can own the most important stocks in the water industry -- worldwide. ETFs are perfect building blocks for building a diversified portfolio using an asset allocation strategy.

During the last eight months, with the market bouncing up and down, there have been times when I did not look too smart buying stocks through it all.

Of course I looked the most foolish on March 9, when I wrote the prophetic Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom? Some folks were commenting that they were staying in cash until the DJIA dropped to 5,000. Today that looks highly improbable, even if the market gives something back over the next few months.

There must be some readers that also have contrarian instincts and made good money this year. This is a reminder to take something off the table. It's time to book some gains. We all did great in 1999 and 2000 only to give it all back and then some. Don't let that happen to you again!

WIth the market tanking, short sellers have become a popular scapegoat. Some observers whine about naked short selling while others lament the end to the uptick rule, suggesting that that has been a driving force behind the market turmoil.

Vanguard Group founder John Bogle, one of the few heroes in a financial services industry filled with villains, has a letter in today's Wall Street Journal explaining why the "blame the shorts!" explanation is wrong. He states it simply:

The uptick rule will not prevent price declines or bear raids. These events can and will continue to occur when security prices are too high compared with a company's earning prospects and risk.

Exactly!

The reality is that bubbles in equities form, and policies that make short-selling more difficult allow markets to overheat and inflate. Now that the party is over, angry investors are lashing out at short sellers.

While researching opinions for a column I'm writing about people's current retirement attitudes, I've been led to one particularly important question: what would I myself do if I had money to invest for retirement?

The first part of my answer is simple. I have a fairly well performing 401k account through my employer and I stick as much money in that account as I can stand. But what if I had excess funds which I wanted to put into safe haven for the future, what would I do right now? At this point, I believe the option I would use is Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

You must understand that I hate bonds. I hate them because I think that they're typically very lazy. They generally pay low rates of return and they sometimes lack liquidity. However, with today's extreme investment volatility, I have come to recognize the intrinsic wisdom of government backed bonds. The nice thing about TIPS is that they come with inflation protection built right in.

I did a little research, and I found a short discussion about TIPS funds at CNN Money.com. The article mentions a TIPS fund which is managed by Vanguard, a name which I place a fairly high degree of trust in. The article indicates that the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX) has an acceptable rate of return and low operating fees. If I had a large sum of cash which I just wanted to place in a save haven until this bear market runs its course, I believe that this Vanguard fund might be one of my first choices.

Investors are scared. The value of their portfolios has plummeted. Now many are seeking safety instead of returns.

If you are one of those investors, you need to understand the different levels of security in the options available to protect you.

But first, ask whether capital preservation is really the right goal for you.

If you anticipate needing 20% or more of your assets within a five year period, you should not have any exposure to the stock market. You need the confidence of knowing your money will be there when you need it. You cannot afford the kind of market volatility we are experiencing that could cause you to sell at a loss to pay living expenses.

You have a number of choices outside the stock market. As with all investments, you are rewarded for taking risk. Remember: The most secure choices will pay the lowest interest.

The liquidity crunch is having unprecedented ramifications in markets that were traditionally regarded as very safe. Many financial experts now regard only cash and debt secured by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as really safe.

This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.

Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin were indicted on June 18, 2008. They are accused of a litany of fraudulent activities in connection with the demise of two hedge funds they managed for Bear Stearns.

Cioffi and Tannin are entitled to the presumption of innocence. The obligatory "perp walk," staged for the benefit of the press, is offensive to traditional notions of justice. Not only does it demean and humiliate them, it taints the jury pool and intrudes upon their right to a fair trial.

Nevertheless, the indictment offers an insight into conduct that would otherwise be inexplicable.

Here are two highly educated, sophisticated, fund managers who achieved the American dream -- and then some. Why would they risk it all by, as alleged, misrepresenting the risk of these funds, and their personal stake in them?

Here's an item that will give more ammunition to the anti Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) crowd -- because they really do need more ammunition.

Pensions & Investments reports that Wal-Mart has been sued for allowing participants in its 401(k) plans to be charged "unreasonably expensive" management fees on the mutuals funds available under the plan. The lawsuit is seeking class-action status, and alleges that the company offered participants retail mutual funds rather than lower-cost institutional funds "despite the ready availability of reasonably priced options ... particularly for a massive plan like Wal-Mart's with tremendous potential to leverage economies of scale."

If you're wondering about how you should invest your own money, here's a hint: the lawyers for the plaintiff compared Wal-Mart's high-cost managed funds to the ultra-low cost funds offered by Vanguard. For example, the actively managed retail fund available to Wal-Mart investors has an expense ratio 1.59% vs. 0.55% for a comparable fund. Over time and many billions of dollars, that adds up: The suit is seeking to recoup at least $60 million in allegedly excessive fees.

Virtually all intelligent and unbiased personal finance experts suggest that retirement money be invested in ultra-low cost index mutual funds. If a lawsuit is what it takes to make Wal-Mart off that option to its employees, than so be it.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

To some degree, a face-off between Vanguard and Fidelity is really a face-off between John Bogle, Vanguard's founder, and Peter Lynch, Fidelity's star fund manager. While Bogle was a pioneer in no-load and low-cost investing in index funds, Lynch was a proponent of investing in "what you know," or getting investing ideas from your day-to-day life. BloggingStocks covered this Bogle vs. Lynch match up back in September, and readers gave the financial edge to Lynch.

Privately held Fidelity Investments is made up by two independent but closely cooperating companies: Boston-based Fidelity Management and Research LLC serves the North American market, and Fidelity International Limited (FIL), spun off in 1969, provides investment products and services to clients in the rest of the world. Fidelity reported revenue of $12.87 billion in 2006, by offering a large family of mutual funds, as well as providing discount brokerage services, retirement services, estate planning, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, life insurance, and a number of other financial services. The founding Johnson family still controls Fidelity, but Peter Lynch and some other fund managers also hold stakes in the company.

Sam Zell is one of the best real estate investors around and therefore one of the few people whose prognostications for the housing market are actually worth listening to.

And that's good news because, speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, Zell had this to say about the housing market: "I think starts have already pretty much bottomed out," Zell said. "I think the housing market this spring will begin its recovery phase."

If the recovery will indeed begin that quickly -- and the bottom has already been reached -- than beaten-down REITs have to be considered for investment.

If you're willing to invest based on the idea that Zell is likely to be right but aren't comfortable picking REITs on your own, Vanguard's REIT ETF (AMEX: VNQ) may be worth a look. After a big drop in 2007, the ETF yields around 5%.

Whenever Wall Street starts packaging a product for the masses that's used by sophisticated investors, you know that there is big trouble ahead. There is no way that an individual investor will be able to value and understand the drivers of that investment's value. And it's fairly certain that Wall Street is packaging the security to enrich itself with fees. Wall Street doesn't have to concern itself with whether its investors make money.

This is the first thing that came to mind when I read a Bloomberg News story Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) introduced a new product that put a scare into Vanguard Group Inc. and the rest of the $13 trillion U.S. mutual-fund industry. The product? An exchange-traded note (ETN). I really don't know what it is but the story says that it allows individual investors to buy a type of forward contract linked to commodities and assets ranging from oil to currencies to foreign stock indexes. It has lower fees than mutual funds, is less regulated and, for now, lets holders defer taxable income indefinitely.

It sure sounds great and that's probably why the mutual fund industry is so afraid of it. But before you go out and buy one of those ETNs, make sure you understand how its value is set and what makes that value go up and down everyday. Otherwise you could be in for a rude awakening. Can't figure out how to value an ETN? Then I suggest you hold onto your wallet with two tightly clasped fists. When Wall Street comes calling on Main Street for such complex securities.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

In the midst of all the bad news it's hard to imagine the stock market ending the year higher than it started. However, that is entirely possible and probably much better than a 50/50 bet. If you want to play it safe consider buying into an index fund or exchange traded funds (ETFs) instead of banking on individual stocks.

For broad coverage you cannot beat the Vanguard Total Stock Market or the Total International Stock funds with the lowest fees and longest history in this area. I think it has also been generally accepted investing strategy over the last few decades that in bearish markets there is a run to quality and "guns and butter" stocks. If you were to follow this old adage you would be considering three sectors, healthcare, defense and consumer staples.

Mutual funds and ETFs (with less history) are less volatile and offer greater diversification than most investors could achieve, and at much lower cost. If you dollar cost average over the next few months you should also be able to smooth out some bumps in the current market.

When the political machine goes to work to juice the economy the market has most often responded positively. That does not mean it's smart for the country, but since when is a politicians first thought about the country.

There are a handful or business commentators who are worth dropping everything and listening to, and I would put Vanguard Group founder John Bogle at the top of my list.

So that means everyone should drop everything and go read this interview he did with Fortune.

Always logical, some of Bogle's best wisdom comes on the topic of the bad mortgages that banks and hedge funds found themselves loading up on. Talking about his own experience making fixed income investments at Vanguard, he said this.:

The fixed income area is a stupid place to take risk. So, when someone came in and said, we can earn an extra half percent on this bond, I would say, do you think it has any higher risk? If not, why are they offering us an extra half percent?

It's absolutely fascinating that all these ostensibly intelligent people loaded up on subprime debt thinking that they could earn a higher yield without adding risk.

Forget complex reforms and more training -- maybe the executives who got their firms into this mess should have the graph above tattooed to their foreheads.

Check out the Bogle interview for his insight on other topics -- including his guess at the odds of a recession.