Analyst Upgrades

• Hyatt Hotels (H) and Hospitality Properties (HPT) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• AB InBev (BUD) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Amerisafe (AMSF) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• China Lodging Group (HTHT) to buy from hold at Brean Murray and to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.

Well, what have you done for me lately, right? Investors, less than thrilled with the returns that venture capital funds have been delivering, are taking their money and going home. The number of new funds launching has thus dropped precipitously, and it looks like the industry will be smaller, with fewer players, according to the National Venture Capital Association.

Of course, the next wave will attract many to ride it, and that could be enough to turn the tide (once again).

Venture capital funds found 612 companies in which to invest $3.67 billion in Q2. Of this, $1.5 billion (41%) was first-time financing, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association. This is only slightly ahead of the action in Q1, in which 141 transactions were first-time, and far behind the pace we enjoyed earlier this decade.

The biotech sector was the big winner in a shrinking market, with funding up 54% to $888 million over 85 deals. The software business was flat quarter-over-quarter at 4644 million over 135 transactions. Investments in internet companies fell 15% to $524 million via 124 deals. Clean technology showed considerable growth, up 15% to $274 million, with 42 transactions closed.

Taking a cursory look at the headlines, it seems that the venture capital (VC) business is in dire straights -- and that it will take some time for things to improve. All in all, the mood is grim.

Or is it? Perhaps this may be the ideal time for VC deals?

This appears to be the case with legendary dot-com pioneer, Marc Andreessen, who cofounded Netscape. You see, this week he has launched a $300 million VC fund. Joining him in the endeavor is another Net luminary, Ben Horowitz. Yes, the fund is called Andreessen Horowitz.

The venture capital (VC) industry demonstrated its commitment to the clean technology space in the second quarter of 2009, pumping $1.2 billion into the sector, according to a report by GTM Research. VC investments in cleantech are up 43.5% from the first quarter of the year, when $836 was put into play in the cleantech space.

The number of transactions increased, as well. In the first quarter, 59 deals were completed, and deal-flow surged 44% to 85 in the quarter just finished. Average deal size remained fairly consistent: $14.2 million for the first quarter and $14.1 for the second.

Times are particularly tough for VC funds. The IPO market is a ghost-town. M&A is muted -- with fairly low valuations. By all accounts, it looks like the returns for VC funds will be dismal.

But, interestingly enough, this is likely the best time to start a VC fund. After all, it takes several years for startup firms to get critical mass. Plus, it's easier to structure juicy terms on deals.

From 2003 to 2007, VCs had little trouble raising capital for their funds. During this period, the amount raised spiked from $10.6 billion to $35.5 billion.

It's kind of curious, actually, because during this time venture deals have lagged. The primary reasons include the lackluster IPO market and muted M&A environment. Perhaps those who invest in VC funds were being patient. Hey, aren't these vehicles long-term?

Well, maybe not. If anything, it looks like investors are backing off. According to a report from the National Venture Capital Association, there was a 21% drop in VC fundraising last year. The total was about $28 billion.

In fact, VCs raised a mere $3.4 billion in Q4. Simply put, investors are looking for liquidity – and this means avoiding VC funds.

Interestingly enough, it's mostly large funds that are getting dollars, such as Accel Partners (which got a cool $1 billion). This means that there will likely be more focus on larger deals, crowding out the smaller ventures.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

After the dot-com implosion, there was much talk about the death of the venture capital (VC) industry. And, while there was some pain, many firms survived. But the death may have only been delayed.

VCs need to generate substantial returns for their investors. Even though there have been some winners – such as Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) – there hasn't been enough activity. Simply put, the IPO market continues to deteriorate and M&A transactions are trailing off. Hey, there were only six VC-backed IPOs in 2008.

So, with thousands of VC firms in the market, it appears that the industry is poised for a Darwinian shakeout, according to the FT.

However, this doesn't mean that VC fundings will go dry. Basically, top firms will continue to do deals, but the approach will be more cautious and certain categories will get starved (such as social media and Web 2.0).

What are some hot spots? Well, according to the NY Times, the areas include web-based software, cloud computing, virtualization, open source and clean tech. Also, new companies will need to go beyond advertising revenues and expand their business models to areas like subscriptions.

Yes, as the recession continues, expect fewer free Net services.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says recent downgrades are killing whole industries, and they're coming at a terrible time.

You can't lose autos and aerospace. Yet that's what's happening. The devastating aerospace downgrade by Goldman yesterday had pin action galore, wrecking everything from United Tech (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take) and Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take) to BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) (Cramer's Take). It took the whole frame down with it and made everything toxic. And it happens at a terrible time. It isn't like Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take), which with a few days left in the quarter can come out defending itself. Goldman rolled a perfect strike.

And now the bowlers are back for more with an equally devastating "sell everything" call based on GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take). Once again it is seamless: Lear (NYSE: LEA) (Cramer's Take) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) (Cramer's Take) get jettisoned too, but you know that Visteon (NYSE: VC) (Cramer's Take) and American Axle (NYSE: AXL) (Cramer's Take) and Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) (Cramer's Take) and BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA) (Cramer's Take) -- the good ones! -- go down with the car.

While I spend most of my time looking for the next Google, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) amongst public companies, I have friends who pursue similar goals but at different stages of company growth. They're venture capitalists. They get to bet OPM (Other Peoples' Money) on finding the next Sergei and Larry in a garage.

Don Dodge had an interesting article today on the state of the market for seed-stage investors, called Angels. In Angels Investors put $26 billion in 57,000 companies, Don examines what 2007 had in store for startup investors. One thing that surprised me was that angels are "the largest source of seed stage and early stage start-up capital, with 39% of 2007 angel investments going there." With a lot of money looking for a home for professional Venture Capitalists, I would have thought that smaller, angel-type investors wouldn't be the largest source of funding for startups.

Some other interesting, salient points Dodge drives home:

Here are a few highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) beat estimates on strong sales and higher profit margins.
• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) profit soared on strong revenue from online marketing.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) earnings and revenue surged in the fourth quarer.
• Dean Foods Co. (NYSE: DF) missed expectations on rising commodity costs and lower profit margins.
• Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) posted better-than-expected profits as rising grain prices spurred demand.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) posted solid results on cost savings and debt reduction.
• Insight Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ: NSIT) beat expectations and raised its guidance.
• LECG (NASDAQ: XPRT) posted a net loss despite a slight increase in revenue in the fourth quarter.
• Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) missed estimates due to profit decline in its CNA Financial (NYSE: CNA) affiliate.
• Marsh & McLennan Inc. (NYSE: MMC) missed estimates on weakness in its insurance services business.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) posted disappointing results on weakness in publishing and TV.
• Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) fourth-quarter and full-year results met estimates.
• Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) beat esimates on the launch of new product s.
• Taser International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) profits doubled, which was in line with expectations.
• Visteon Corp. (NYSE: VC) posted a fourth-quarter loss on restructuring costs and write-downs.
• Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WMI) beat espectations and offered 2008 guidance.
• Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (NYSE: WYN) earnings met expectations and were buoyed by lodging revenue.
• Zoltek Companies Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) missed earnings estimates due to inventory buildup.

Upcoming results to watch for include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Safeway (NYSE: SWY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Shares of Visteon Corp. (NYSE: VC) are slipping in morning trading after the company posted a larger fourth-quarter loss and announced it would continue its restructuring plan.

The auto parts supplier reported a wider fourth-quarter loss of $43 million, hurt by restructuring costs and write-downs. Included in the company's loss was $30 million related to non-cash asset impairments and $32 million related to restructuring expenses.

However, the company's loss per share of 33 cents managed to beat analysts' estimates for a much larger quarterly loss of 55 cents per share. Visteon's revenue also saw a small increase of only 2% $2.86 billion from $2.81 billion in the same period of last year.

When Sequoia Capital does a venture deal, people listen. The firm has backed such companies as Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and YouTube.

Well, Sequoia is making another play in the video space; that is, it has arranged a $4 million investment in TokBox.

With TokBox, you can make video calls – for free. Also, the platform is completely web-based. You don't even have to register for the service. There is also a cool feature that allows you to embed TokBox on a blog or social network.

I had a chance to interview Chase Norlin on the matter (he is the CEO and founder of Pixsy, which is a video search engine). According to him:

"Tokbox is in a very interesting space that has yet to produce a clear winner. The pioneer and current leader of the space is Paltalk, the main difference being that they're a downloadable app. The recent funding of TokBok brings back a lot of memories of eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY)'s Skype in the early days: Find a breakthrough technology, get mass distribution, then figure out how to monetize it later. Hopefully these guys will figure out that last part quicker than Skype has."

If you want to check out other venture fundings, click here.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: National Grid, Shire Plc, On Semiconductor and Enbridge were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National Grid (NYSE: NGG) to Buy from Hold as they believe the Keyspan deal will be positive for shareholders.
• Goldman upgraded shares of Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) to Buy from Neutral and added the stock to their Conviction Buy List on valuation and expected gains in the ADHD market.
  
• On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia on valuation.
  
• Enbridge Inc (NYSE: ENB) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC World Markets, as the firm sees an attractive 3-year return potential as new projects come into service and expects the stock's relative underperformance to come to an end.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Visteon Corporation (NYSE: VC) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  
• RSC Holdings (NYSE: RRR) and Greenfield Online Inc (NASDAQ: SRVY) were upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Lehman Brothers.
  
• Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Stifel upgraded Health Care REITs, including Healthcare Realty Trust (NYSE: HR), LTC Properties Inc (NYSE: LTC) and Ventas Inc (NYSE: VTR), to Buy from Hold.