American Express (AXP) followed in Visa's (V) steps and announced a digital payment and commerce platform dubbed Serve, which enables the consumers to make purchases and person-to-person payments online via mobile phones and at merchants that accept American Express cards. MasterCard (MA) is also planning to launch its own offering for personal payments.

We estimate that American Express derives 73% of our $49.61 price estimate from card transaction and execution fees while Visa derives almost 29% of its $85.03 Trefis price estimate from transaction fees.

Continue reading American Express Nips at Paypal with New 'Serve' Platform

American Express Nips at Paypal with New 'Serve' Platform originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Apr 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It seems inevitable that our smartphones will become our wallets. After all, they have become a key part of our lives. And smartphones have the power to carry out secure and sophisticated transactions.

As is no surprise, many companies are scrambling to be winners in the e-wallet space. Take American Express (AXP). The company has launched a new e-wallet called Serve.

Continue reading American Express Revs Up Its E-wallet

American Express Revs Up Its E-wallet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Mar 2011 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When it comes to credit-card businesses, I'm partial to Visa, Inc. (V). Even so, I have to give my respect today to Discover Financial Services (DFS). At the time of this writing, the stock was up 4.5% to $23.26. Volume was strong. Furthermore, a new 52-week high of $23.46 was recorded earlier in the day (by the time this is published, it's possible the high quote will be different).

The stock has been a good holding over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11, and the one-year chart shows strength. This name is heading for a double. Is it too late to buy?

Continue reading Discover Financial Services Trading Higher After Q1 Release

Discover Financial Services Trading Higher After Q1 Release originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Founded in 1950, New York-based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the US in terms of card transaction volumes, after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS)and Capital One (COF).

What differentiates American Express from MasterCard and Visa is its relatively more affluent customer base, which it maintains by offering generous benefits and reward programs. Since American Express brings higher spending consumers to merchants, it can charge a higher commission (known as the interchange fee) on sales. Also, unlike Visa and MasterCard, American Express only issues charge and credit card products but not debit cards, which have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past couple of years. With these critical differences in mind, we explore the opportunities that lie ahead for American Express in an evolving macroeconomic environment.

Our price estimate is $47.16, which is just slightly higher than the current market price.

Impact of Regulatory Reforms

The Obama Administration in February 2010 passed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, or the CARD Act which enforces more disclosure about interest rates, caps on service fees, grace periods and also makes it difficult for people under the age of 21 to obtain cards. All this is expected to negatively impact the growth in the number of cards in use but lead to lower net write-off rates and defaults by card members.

The Durbin Amendment, enacted in July 2010, granted the Fed the power to control the levels of this fee. In December, the Fed enforced one such limit - 12 cents per debit card transaction. While this adversely affects the two largest card payments-processing networks Visa and MasterCard, which also issue debit cards, we believe it presents upside opportunity for American Express as credit cards would gain prominence over debit cards, at least from the issuers' end.

Improving Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic conditions are improving in the US, albeit at a slow pace. The unemployment levels are still close to historical high levels but on a downward slope, declining from 9.8% in November 2010 to 9.4% in December 2010. Consumer spending has picked up and so have the corresponding card transactions.

Household purchases, which constitute about 70% of the economy, grew at 4.4% in December 2010, the highest since the first quarter of 2006.American Express' card delinquency rates (the proportion of outstanding balances past the due date to total balances) continues to decline month on month to 2.1% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. Charge-offs (the loans deemed uncollectible and hence, written-off) also declined from 5.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Improvements in macroeconomic conditions hint at more relaxed card-issuing criteria and higher credit limits.

If spending increases more than we currently forecast, this could improve our price estimate. Drag the trend line in the modifiable chart above to see the impact. For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.

See our estimates for American Express.

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American Express Outlook Improves on Recovery in Spending originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Feb 2011 13:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Let's take a quick look at two companies that posted quarterly reports. One makes its money from plastic (the kind you use to buy things), the other serves pizza, poultry, and tacos to the masses.

Visa, Inc. (V) has not been a great stock this year. Its 52-week low is $64.90 and its 52-week high is $97.19. The stock closed today's regular session at $72.09, backed by unremarkable volume. I don't know, maybe I'm way off, but I think this name should be at least a little closer to the 52-week high. On a related note, the one-year chart is not what shareholders want to see.

Continue reading Two Quarterly Reports: Visa and Yum! Brands

Two Quarterly Reports: Visa and Yum! Brands originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Feb 2011 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Are credit card rates too high? The answer is a resounding YES! The Federal Reserve just gave the banks $600 billion in cash in the form of a second round of quantitative easing. What are they doing with it? Raising the rates on credit cards, of course, so they can turn that $600 billion into $1.2 trillion in four years.

You are probably wondering how they are doing this. It's very simple. If you use the rule of 72s, at 18%, money doubles itself every four years (you divide 72 by the rate of interest).

Continue reading Are Credit Card Interest Rates Too High?

Are Credit Card Interest Rates Too High? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Feb 2011 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading American Express: Buy or Sell After Q4 Release?

American Express: Buy or Sell After Q4 Release? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Jan 2011 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oracle (ORCL) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Accenture (ACN) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Advanced Energy (AEIS) and Applied Materials (AMAT) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Spreadtrum (SPRD) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Tortoise Energy Capital (TYY) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Global Payments (GPN) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• CBS (CBS) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Sonic (SONC) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: ACN, AMAT, AZN, BBT, CBS, GPN, IP, ORCL, PKG, SONC, V ...

Analyst Calls: ACN, AMAT, AZN, BBT, CBS, GPN, IP, ORCL, PKG, SONC, V ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading MasterCard Up After Latest Report

MasterCard Up After Latest Report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Nov 2010 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Earnings Releases: Procter & Gamble and Visa

Earnings Releases: Procter & Gamble and Visa originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Oct 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

Continue reading Week in Preview: The Earnings Crunch Rolls On (MSFT, COP, V)

Week in Preview: The Earnings Crunch Rolls On (MSFT, COP, V) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 24 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Credit card demand has exploded in recent years. Today, credit cards are responsible for over $2.5 trillion in transactions each year," notes Ian Wyatt.

The editor of Top Stock Insights explains, "And no company is better positioned to capture the digital transaction market than Visa (V); further, investors have a window of opportunity right now to pick up shares at a great price.

"Different from credit card-issuers, Visa is shielded from the consumer credit troubles (such as delinquencies and defaults) because they don't lend to consumers.

Continue reading Visa (V): A 'Long-Term Winner'

Visa (V): A 'Long-Term Winner' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Oct 2010 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) is trading higher this afternoon after the credit-card entity reported numbers for the fiscal third quarter. At the time of this writing, the stock was up 2.4% to $15.95. Volume was very strong.

The shares have traded in a narrow range over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11 while the 52-week high is $17.36. The chart shows a nice trading vehicle for those who like to buy and sell on a short-term basis.

Continue reading Discover Financial Services Up on Q3 News

Discover Financial Services Up on Q3 News originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Costco (COST) to buy from neutral based on valuation, improving fundamentals and potential catalysts. The firm raised its price target to $68 from $62.
• Soleil upgraded MGM Resorts (MGM) to buy from hold, citing valuation, easing balance sheet concerns and a multiyear convention recovery. The firm upped its target for shares to $14 from $13. Note, Soleil also downgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to hold from buy.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) to overweight from neutral with a $59 price target following the company's better-than-expected Q2 results.
• Dell (DELL) was upgraded to buy from outperform at CLSA.
• CommScope (CTV) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• EnCana (ECA) was upgraded to sector outperformer from sector performer at CIBC.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BA, COST, DELL, GD, INTC, LVS, MGM, PCLN, TWX, V, VIA ...

Analyst Calls: BA, COST, DELL, GD, INTC, LVS, MGM, PCLN, TWX, V, VIA ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Sep 2010 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

News

Continue reading Good News: Consumers Control Credit Cards in Tough Times

Good News: Consumers Control Credit Cards in Tough Times originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Aug 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I found a rather interesting article on Bloomberg, one discussing the potential of smartphones to replace credit cards. Supposedly, both AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and perhaps T-Mobile, may work with Discover Financial Services (DFS) and Barclays (BCS) in Atlanta and three other cities to test a system allowing consumers to pay with the "wave of a smartphone." This move would be the largest effort to attempt mobile payments in America and could serve to cut into credit card use.

Crone Consulting, a credit card consultant, noted that such a move could be a "game-changer" as far as credit cards are concerned. Think of how much such a move could cut into the market share for credit cards. According to the article, Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) handled 82% of U.S. consumer spending a year ago (that is $2.45 trillion). Now imagine that smartphone users have the ability to simply pass their phone over a reader in order to pay for their purchases.

Continue reading Discover Takes On Rivals with Pay-by-Smartphone System

Discover Takes On Rivals with Pay-by-Smartphone System originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Comcast (CMCSA) and Visa (V) reported earnings on Wednesday. Following is my brief take on each of them.

Comcast is a big name in cable, and it's waiting to close on a deal with General Electric (GE) involving the latter company's NBC Universal. It will be interesting to see if Comcast's management team can properly synergize with the studio.

Continue reading Earnings Releases from Comcast and Visa

Earnings Releases from Comcast and Visa originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Jul 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Visa Drops After Financial Reform Bill Passes

Visa Drops After Financial Reform Bill Passes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jul 2010 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• JPMorgan upgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to overweight from neutral, citing the company's leverage to coal and position relative to peers. The firm has a $68 price target for shares.
• Benchmark upgraded Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) to hold from sell based on a more favorable earnings outlook and reduced dividend risk.
• UBS upgraded Costco (COST) to buy from neutral based on valuation. The firm raised its price target to $63 from $62.
• Visa (V) was upgraded to gonviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AMD, BBY, COST, INTC, MRVL, MYGN, NSC, RDS.A, TXN, V ...

Analyst Calls: AMD, BBY, COST, INTC, MRVL, MYGN, NSC, RDS.A, TXN, V ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With the unemployment rate hovering near 10%, bad news on the TV and job prospects dwindling, it can be tempting to retreat to a nice beach somewhere until the economy turns around. Some people are actually doing it! Rather than sitting around and moping until the economy recovers, you can go see the world and have the trip of a lifetime.

Out of work and taking a vacation? You probably want some of what I am smoking? Well, listen up!

Continue reading Tired of Looking for Work? See the World Instead!

Tired of Looking for Work? See the World Instead! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Jul 2010 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.