"Investing in agriculture-related companies has been one of our main themes for the past year, and we still favor it," say resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.

The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor note, "We're adding a new stock to the portfolio that should benefit from the increasingly higher global demand for fertilizer: Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).

"Potash is the world's largest and lowest-cost publicly traded potash producer, the fastest-growing segment in the fertilizer business. Its potash reserves are sufficient for more than 100 years of production.

"The company controls about 70% of the world's excess capacity. Potash Corp is also the world's third-largest phosphate producer and fourth-largest nitrogen producer. Current phosphate reserves should last more than 50 years.

Continue reading Potash (POT): Planting profits for global growth

Potash (POT): Planting profits for global growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"As incomes around the world rise, so does demand for food; and the explosive growth in population is aggravating the situation even further," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.

The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor explain, "The big cycle in food demand has begun, and long-term-oriented investors will be rewarded handsomely." What's the best play? Among their favorites is Monsanto (NYSE: MON).

"Monsanto is the undisputed leader in the genetically modified (GM) seed industry. Its business consists of two segments: Seeds/Genomics and Agricultural Productivity.

"The Seeds/Genomics segment consists of the company's global seeds and traits business, and genetic technology platforms, including biotechnology, breeding and genomics.

"The Agricultural Productivity segment consists primarily of crop protection products, residential lawn-and-garden herbicide products, and the company's animal agricultural businesses.

"Monsanto shares have been affected by the market's shorter-term gyrations, but the underlying business is extremely healthy. In fact, the seed business is currently in a sweet spot as global food demand changes dramatically.

Continue reading Monsanto (MON): Feed the world

Monsanto (MON): Feed the world originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Sep 2008 10:54:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"People want to own more gold when there's a perception of growing global economic and political turmoil," explain resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.

In their Vital Resource Investor, the advisor offer their long-term bullish assessment for gold as well their favorite gold mining stock: "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

"Every commodity bull market eventually ends when consumers permanently reduce demand with conservation and switch to alternatives, and the producers ultimately over-expand. This, however, only happens over a period of many years.

"To be sure, we've seen demand in the US drop for many vital resources, from copper to energy, as the economy has slowed. Demand from developing nations, however, remains entrenched by necessity, as these suddenly more affluent nations struggle to upgrade their vital infrastructure.

"And although we may see Chinese economic growth slow from its current off-the-chart 10% rate, that country will still face critical needs to build out its cities to meet the millions of new migrants that come every year. And that's a huge call on raw materials.

Continue reading GoldCorp (GG): 'Our favorite major'

GoldCorp (GG): 'Our favorite major' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his Vital Resource Investor, he adds, "Indeed, gold has held its value for millenia. An ounce of gold still buys a quality men's suit, just as it did in the days of ancient Greece." Here, he reviews a trio of ideas, each for investors with various levels of risk tolerance.

Mostrous explains, "To date, Americans have never had to experience the society-wrenching events that have affected much of the world for centuries. But most of the globe's population hasn't forgotten the value of gold in times of extreme strife and social turmoil.

"And with incomes rising in many of these countries, beneficiaries have used their newfound savings to beef up their holdings. That's a trend with serious legs, particularly as Asia continues to grow.

"Then there's inflation, the ultimate debaser of all paper currencies. Despite surging energy and food prices, core inflation remains at elevated -- but still relatively moderate -- levels in most of the developed world.

"Developing world inflation, however, is a far different story. And many countries have seen sharp price acceleration across the board, including China.

Continue reading 'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites

'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Recent weakness in commodities is just a pause to breathe , not the beginning of the end," says Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor. His favorite copper play? Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX).

"Most investors aren't able to grasp this commodities cycle's massive potential. The main reason is that few investors are willing to accept the big transformation that's taking place in several emerging market economies, led by China and India.

"We've been advocating this change for quite some time. And after several years of doing so, investors are more receptive. However, they're not totally convinced yet.

"This is the main reason this bull market in emerging markets and commodities has another strong leg up before it reaches all-time highs. But we're far from that point. Meanwhile, copper remains one of our favorite metals.

"Our long-standing recommendation to take advantage of copper's strength is Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold. Copper suffered from supply challenges along with investors' underestimation of its potential early in the year.

Continue reading Freeport McMoRan (FCX): Top play in copper

Freeport McMoRan (FCX): Top play in copper originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Jun 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Resource industry specialists Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous are bullish on the agriculture and water sectors; in their model portfolio they already hold 6 stocks in these sectors.

The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor explain, "We see strong underpinnings for continued higher agricultural prices for many years to come." Here's their latest agrculture play: EI du Pont de Nemours (NYSE: DD).

"Recently the United Nations Food Agency warned of civil war in some countries because of global food shortages. With the rapid urbanization of Asian countries, we see a growing global dependence on a shrinking number of food producing nations, particularly with the world adding 78.5 million people each year.

"There will be ups and downs for prices along the way. A throttling back of America's efforts to develop ethanol so extensively or a move to use something besides corn to brew ethanol could take some of the upward pressure off corn prices.

"A real global recession could also cause food prices to back off for a time and it's also possible we'll see some form of US government intervention to curb food prices, particularly as the presidential election develops.

Continue reading Agriculture boosts growth at DuPont (DD)

Agriculture boosts growth at DuPont (DD) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 May 2008 11:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"There's no doubt about it: vital resources are in a bull market of gigantic proportions," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.

"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.

"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.

"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.

"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.

"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.

Continue reading Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper

Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Apr 2008 10:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), Russia's second-largest producer of long steel products," is our favorite speculative play for 2008," say co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.

"The company operates one major steel mill with a capacity of close to 5 million tons of output per year. Mechel operates in Russia, Lithuania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Its ace in the hole is a mining business that focuses on raw materials used in making steel, primarily coking coal, iron ore, nickel and steam coal.

"The company's steel business is 100% self-sufficient in coking coal, 80% in iron ore and 50% in electricity. This aspect of Mechel (i.e., vertical integration) is critical in an environment where raw material prices continue to rise. And it should support the stock because its performance this year has been nothing less than dazzling.

"Mechel is a high-cost producer, and management has worked to cut costs while improving efficiency. Those efforts have been quietly successful up to now, and we expect this to be an ongoing positive theme.

"And Russia's strong domestic demand -- within and outside the all-important energy sector -- is an additional advantage for the company. Buy Mechel at current prices."

Best Stocks for 2008: Mining for value at Russia's Mechel (MTL) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Dec 2007 11:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Aluminum is one of our favorite commodities for 2008 and the best leveraged play on aluminum is Australia-based Alumina (NYSE: AWC)," explain co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.

"The company, our top conservative pick for 2008, owns 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, which, in turn, holds the world's largest, low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets.

"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction.

"As energy, raw materials and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup makes its operations increasingly competitive and low cost versus those of rivals.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Alumina (AWC) shines from Chinese demand

Best Stocks for 2008: Alumina (AWC) shines from Chinese demand originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 20 Dec 2007 12:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous, "Resource stocks are by nature volatile. The important thing is we're still very much in a long-term bull market. And when the market mood does shift, today's pain will convert very quickly to massive gain."

In Vital Resource Investor they explain, "There is ongoing consolidation in this sector and the recent setback in stock prices make deals more attractive for acquirers." Here, they look at Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), a play on consolidation in the iron ore industry.

"And when the market mood does shift, today's pain will convert very quickly to massive gain. The long-term underpinnings for vital resources are strong as ever: Soaring demand from the world's emerging growth engines, a growing scarcity of easily accessed supplies, rising development costs, resurgent resource nationalism and ongoing sector consolidation.

"It's this last trend that's captured our attention lately. Importantly, when it comes to developing vital resources profitably, size is essential. This year has already witnessed two mega-deals: Freeport Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) has bought Phelps Dodge and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) purchased Alcan.

"And we're certain to see many more announced in coming months. The recent dance between BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and its giant rival suggest the need to get bigger is greater than ever. Even if it doesn't succeed, the proposed merger is already increasing rivals' urge to merge.

Continue reading Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO): Strong play on iron ore

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO): Strong play on iron ore originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Dec 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"We've added a high potential acquisition play to our model portfolio, Alumina Ltd. (NYSE: AWC)," note Elliott Gue and Yiannis Mostrous in their Vital Resource Investor.

The advisors explain, "The company is a leveraged bet on the recovery of aluminum prices in the next few quarters as China rationalizes output and exports by taking its high cost, heavily subsidized producers out of the game. Its small size and 40% stake in the world's largest low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets is a tempting target.

"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction. As energy, raw materials, and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup enables its operations to be extremely efficient and low cost.

"The company is at a sweet spot because China's aluminum demand has been so strong that it's taken the industry by surprise. Although a large number of experts were at the start of the year forecasting 14% growth of China's aluminum demand for 2007, the latest projections (as per Alcoa's calculations) are pointing toward 35% growth.

"Further, China has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of consumption that more mature economies have achieved. And although it won't happen in one go, it will be a long and steady process. The bottom line: To meet this demand as well as demand from other countries like rapidly urbanizing rural India, aluminum production will have to grow much more rapidly than at any time in history."

Top resource ideas: 'Vital' advice on Alumina (AWC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Finding the right natural resource at the right time can be spectacularly rewarding," notes Ivan Martchev. One such opportunity according to the resources advisor may be palladium.

Here, the in his Vital Resource Investor he looks at the overall market for the metals and a pair of mining plays in this specialized sector - Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC) and North American Palladium (ASE: PAL)

Martchev explains, "Palladium is the only one of the precious metals that still trades nearly 70% below its 2000 high. While that in and of itself doesn't suggest that palladium is undervalued, I think it has great potential."

He points out that the platinum group metals (PGMs) -- platinum, palladium, osmium, ruthenium, iridium and rhodium -- have unique characteristics as industrial metals. The most well known, he observes, is their use in catalytic converters for automobiles.

Indeed, he notes, the catalytic converter market drives platinum and palladium. He explains, "The recent bid under palladium is very much an expression of environmental concerns and tightening legislation worldwide on emission standards, which is likely to get tougher and tougher.

Meanwhile, he points out, "Only platinum and palladium have dedicated miners, while the rest of the PGMs are byproducts of platinum and palladium mining." And, he adds, the majority of PGMs are found in South Africa and Russia.

How do you play it as a US-based investor? He suggests that there are two primary North American miners that deal in PGMs, one in Canada, one in the US. The only US-based producer, he says, is Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC).

Continue reading Palladium plays

Palladium plays originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Jun 2007 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

While investors and pundits debate the impact of ethanol on our long-term energy problems, one thing is clear according to Ivan Martchev -- the popularity of ethanol is having a "huge impact" on agribusinesses.

The editor of Vital Resource Investor explains, "Whether ethanol makes economic sense is less irrelevant. It is having an effect on farming." Indeed, he believes one of the best ways for investors to play the popularity of ethanol is to focus on farming equipment.

Within this market, he notes that the obvious choice for investors is industry leader Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE). However, he cautions that the stock already reflects investor optimism.

In addition, he notes, "The stock recently traded at $114, and many individual investors dislike buying triple-digit stocks." Therefore, he notes, he looked for a "worthy adversary to Deere" and found Case New Holland, whose name was recently shortened to CNH Global NV (NYSE: CNH).

The advisor calls CNH a restructuring story. He notes that the company is majority owned by Fiat, which is itself recovering from a "dire situation" two years ago.

Continue reading CNH: A farming alternative to Deere

CNH: A farming alternative to Deere originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 May 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You won't see the contango on Dancing with the Stars; rather its a term used in the futures market to describe the difference in value when the price of a commodity for future deliver is higher than its spot price.

It's also the reason why resource expert Ivan Martchev thinks the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) is an excellent short-term trading vehicle but a "terrible" long term investment.

The editor of The Vital Resource Investor explains, "Geopolitical events going on in the Middle East are bullish for oil prices but not necessarily bullish for oil stocks. How come? An attack-driven spike in oil to new highs (proportionately more so the longer the conflict) would likely slow a slowing economy even more."

As a result, he notes, investors should not ncessarily expect to see quick gains in oil stocks if the oil price spikes. He notes, "In conflict-driven spikes that are presumed to be temporary, oil stocks in the past have tended to divorce themselves from the price of oil."

Rather, to play a short-term spike in oil price, the advisor prefers the US Oil exchange-traded fund. As noted at the start of this post, he explains, "USO is a terrible buy-and-hold idea because of the contango in oil futures."

Continue reading Oil expert dances the 'contango'

Oil expert dances the 'contango' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Apr 2007 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.