For now, I'm placing a Hold on Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) shares, first recommended on April 20, 2009 at a price of $20.08.

Valero, the largest, independent refiner in North America, continues to underperform, as a result of the decline in demand for refined products triggered by the recession.

Analyst upgrades:

• JPMorgan upgraded Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) to Overweight from Neutral following its gold valuation analysis. The firm set a $54 price target on Barrick shares and a $47 price target on Goldcorp shares.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Market Weight and raised its target to $24 from $15, citing the company's improving end market demand, competitive position, and valuation.
• Barclays upgraded AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the company's improved liquidity position and what they believe to be the beginning of a multi-year profit cycle for the sector. Despite the upgrade, the firm lowered its target to $14 from $20.
• Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
• Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Buy from Hold on expectations that oil supply will begin to tighten and demand rise. The firm has a $55 price target on the stock.
• Citigroup upgraded Pinnacle West (NYSE: PNW) to Buy from Hold and added the stock to its Top Picks Live list. The firm expects the company's settlement in Arizona to be approved and raised its target on shares to $35 from $32.
• RBC Capital upgraded NetApp (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Outperform from Sector Perform as it believes that the company is performing better than expected during its October quarter. The firm expects the company to continue to execute well during subsequent quarters and it raised its target to $33.
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) has underperformed, but I'm nevertheless Reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on April 20, 2009 at a price of $20.08. Here's why:

True, gasoline demand has lagged due to the recession, but that trend is expected to end, as lay-offs decline with the U.S. economic recovery.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reported a surprise profit but is expected to return to losses next quarter.
• Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) profit and revenue were in line with expectations, sending shares lower.
• Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) posted better-than-expected earnings but other concerns drove down shares.
• eHealth Inc. (NASDAQ: EHTH) reported solid Q2 numbers but Wall Street was not impressed.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) posted a smaller-than-expected Q2 loss, sending shares higher.
• JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) reported swinging to a Q2 net loss and revenues were flat.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the stocks seem to move in lock step despite varying degrees of success.

Oils are not equal, even though they trade together. This morning Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (Cramer's Take) reported profits down 67%, which is 15 points more than BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take), and this matters. Conoco (NYSE: COP) (Cramer's Take) was just disastrous, down 76%, with the worse combination of bad refining and horrid natural gas numbers. Yet they are all pretty much treated equally. Meanwhile, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) gave you a 4.6% increase in the dividend, something they hinted they could do because of the great growth of output that is hitting now. Reserves are growing.

I am hoping that these become de-ETF'd, meaning that they can trade on their own so stock-picking matters again. That's what's happening, for example, with the banks, where a different kind of reserves is distinguishing the players.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) lowered its 2009 earnings guidance, initially sending the share price lower.
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) reported a bigger-than-expected Q2 net loss as revenues sank.
• Collective Brands Inc. (NYSE: PSS) saw Q1 earnings and sales decline, but beat Wall Street estimates.
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) earnings prospects led Goldman Sachs analysts to increase its forecasts.
• Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) weak Q1 results topped estimates and it offered guidance that pleased investors.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO - option chain) stock is down big today after the company warned it expects to report a second-quarter loss of 50 cents per share. Analysts had forecast a profit of 74 cents per share. The company also said it plans to sell about 40 million shares of common stock to fund general corporate purposes and recent acquisitions. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on VLO.

This morning, VLO opened at $19.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.50 and a high of $19.79. As of 11:25, VLO is trading at $18.75, down $3.63 (-16.2%). The chart for VLO looked bullish before today while S&P gives VLO a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded KBW, Inc (NYSE: KBW) to Market Perform from Underperform as it sees increased capital-raising opportunities for small and mid-sized banks and believes the company's quarter is off to a strong start. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $18.
• Pali Capital upgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Buy from Neutral on expectations the company's strategic shift towards advisory, distribution and retail will be monetized sooner than expected and its capital markets business is gaining traction. The firm set a $33 target on the stock.
• Baird upgraded Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $58 from $55 based on valuation predictable earnings, and its market leading platform.
• Apollo Investment (NYSE: AINV) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was lifted at Goldman to Buy from Neutral.
• Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $20.50. VLO is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on April 28. Crude oil futures are recently up 1.51% to $49.59. VLO May option implied volatility of 63 is below its 26-week average of 73 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) closed at $46.23. SLB is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on April 24. May option implied volatility of 61 is below its 26-week average of 65, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors has been the refining sector, with exclusions made for a few companies. Would that the United States (and much of the world, for that matter), transition to a next-generation propulsion system (natural gas, electric, fuel cell) quickly, but unfortunately that goal still looks a decade away, perhaps more. And that means refiners like Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) will remain a force.

The market punished Valero in 2008 after refining margins narrowed substantially, but folks, we're talking gasoline in the United States here: gasoline refining margins can't (and didn't) contract for very long, and significant, additional margin improvement in seen in 2009.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) earnings tumbled in Q4 but came in just short of expectations.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) earnings prospects and cash flow led to an analyst's upgrade.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) topped analysts Q4 expectations, sending shares higher.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit despite the weak economy.
• Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) reported a big quarterly loss due to merger costs and bad fuel hedges.
• Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) Q4 earnings fell on lower exchange rates and charges related to an acquisition.
• E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) narrowed its Q4 net loss but fell short of expectations.

Today Wall Street managed yet another day of gains. It seems that the confirmation of Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary offset all of the negative data. Financials also had a decent day that seemed to trump all of the dismal earnings announcements from other giant companies.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) rose after the chip maker gave earnings that were only "about as disappointing" as expected. The company is trimming costs and cutting about 3,400 jobs. Shares were up over 4% at $15.39 before the close.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the about-face at Apple and Bank of America is brutal for those who believed the company line.

Talk about a "trust no one" era. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) had been adamant that it had no use or need for the government's money. Its instant investment in China of much of our money made that point loud and clear. Why did we waste it on them? Why did we force them to take it?

Could we have been reassured more times that Steve Jobs was OK? That we were dead wrong to question it? That Joe Nocera, who wrote a prescient article about health and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) and Jobs had been singled out by Jobs for the audacity of even questioning the man who is so much of Apple that we are frightened to even contemplate the world without him?

But we were asked to trust, and in return the trust was not rewarded. Bank of America has been in trouble for a month now, even though the company exuded confidence. The stock's been a killer.

I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.