VW may have passed Toyota (NYSE: TM) as the world's No.1 car company just as Toyota passed GM (NYSE: GM) a year ago. Unfortunately, the companies all operate in an industry where being on the top of the pile does not matter much these days. It is probable that each of these firms loses money on the great majority of the cars they sell. To make matter worse, market share may be a weakness as the auto industry moves out of the recession.

It seems more and more likely that modest sized and nimble auto makers like BMW and Hyundai, who do not have to maintain factories in distant corners of the world and do not have to develop and market dozens of individual products, may hold an advantage in a fragmented car industry. The behemoths rely on their ability to maintain massive capital spending and their cost structures can do them nearly irreparable harm in a weak economy.

We all know the impact that the current economic slowdown has had on American auto sales, and today we get news that European car sales are also feeling the pain, with auto sales dipping 15% during the month of October.

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, or the ACEA, October marks the sixth straight month that new-car registrations have fallen, but things have been much worse since the summer, when concerns of a global recession really started to spread.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) was the worst hit major American automaker, which had a 25% decline in sales in October on a year over year basis. Japanese maker, Toyota Motor Company (NYSE: TM) did not fare to much better, with a 24% dip in sales. Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) did a little bit better, with a reported 11.9% decline in October sales. Europe's largest automaker, Volkswagen, held up the best among the majors, with "only" a 7.9% drop.

A little noticed trade on shares of VW may cost hedge funds billions of dollars in losses. And several investment banks are also rumored to have been on the losing end of the trade. What happened is that these investors bet that VW shares would fall and they were spectacularly wrong. Besides their own poor judgment, German financial reporting practices are coming in for some of the blame.

Losses could top $38 billion for 100 hedge funds that sold 13% of VW shares short. Specifically, traders shorted the common shares and bought the preferred. The logic was that since the common traded at a 50% premium to the preferred, the common would drop so the spread would narrow. Instead, the common shares soared and the preferred ones collapsed.

Why the short squeeze? This weekend Porsche revealed that it had lifted its stake in VW from 42.6% to 75% using derivatives. This was a problem because it meant that the free float available to cover a short position was reduced from 45% to 5.8%. The resulting panic buying drove VW's market capitalization above that of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM). Now shareholders are angry at how Porsche could use derivatives to gain a 45% stake in VW without disclosing them.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) shares had plunged by about 25% about an hour ago, while Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) shares had dropped about 11%. By now, the declines have moderated with MS down "only" 15% and GS down about 8%.

Other financials, such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) aren't displaying such declines. BAC is down less than 2%, WFC up 0.75% and C is up half a percent.

With no news on either company, it isn't clear why the two investment banks, recently turned commercial banks, are plunging.

CNBC's David Faber said one of the reasons Goldman could be down today is a "rumor the firm was involved with the 'Short Volkswagen' trade, which has blown up on a massive short squeeze." Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) briefly took over the lead from Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) as the largest market cap firm in the world after the recent spike in share price.

While this may explain Goldman's stock price decline, it doesn't Morgan's, which has been in the news regarding the settlement of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA) with Discover (NYSE: DFS). Morgan claims it deserves a piece of the settlement.

Still, this news can't have caused the stock to plunge. Something else might be in the works.

Update 12:45 pm: Seems the speculation regarding being on the wrong side of a Volkswagen trade applies to Morgan Stanley too. While Morgan's spokesperson denied any exposure to VW, Goldman declined to comment. Societe Generale, the French bank, saw its shares also hit on a similar speculation regarding a bad bet on VW shares.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Christoph Scherbaum, editor of the German edition of Personal Finance, who says German investors are cautious, but optimistic about their market.

Q. Christoph, some experts predict the beginning of a prolonged slowdown that will push consumer price inflation in Germany to as low as 2% next June. What do you think?

A. Consumer prices are not really a problem. August inflation was less than 4% and is estimated at 3% until year-end. The delayed effects of rising commodity prices will have a steeper decline. In addition, second-round effects through higher wage developments are now more visible. Therefore, the European Central Bank-despite poor economic data-will wait for a reassessment of its inflation target for 2010 until the second half of 2009

Q. To what extent do you think the US's financial worries are extending to German financial institutions?

A. It's a difficult question, but we have no big problem with our banks. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck recently stated: "Although this financial crisis undoubtedly is the biggest economic risk for the German economy, I think the potential impact on us-after inquiries and interviews with the Bundesbank president-to be limited". He also reaffirmed the intent of a balanced federal budget in 2011.

Although Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has fallen on hard times -- like much of the auto industry -- the company will eventually come back around. Its success, like that of competitor General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), will be on its ability to be flexible enough to build the vehicles customers want as needs change.

That's a large order, though. Ford CEO Alan Mulally recently stated that his Way Forward plan was behind schedule, and the automaker wasn't expected to post an annual profit until 2010. Ford knows it needs to be more globally flexible or it won't even make that extended target. Profit centers like SUVs are so 1999.

On top of all that, a Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) executive recently said that the German automaker intends to surpass Ford to become the third-largest seller of vehicles in the world. That's quite a bold prediction and it puts Ford under even more pressure to get automobiles delivered to customers with increasing manufacturing and selling flexibility. As of last year, Volkswagen sold 6.19 million vehicles to Ford's 8.55 million. Is one year enough of a background to declare VW a future winner over Ford? Possibly.

Then again, Japanese automakers Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC) and Nissan Motor Co. (NASDAQ: NSANY) are not going anywhere and will continue to put up a great fight. Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) is currently the king of the Japanese automakers, right behind GM globally. If Volkswagen really believes it can charge into the third spot, it better have the global vehicle finesse to know what its regions' customers want before they want it -- and then, make those sales.

As if Detroit needed any more bad news, there are reports that yet another foreign producer of sensible, efficient and fun to drive cars is planning a raid on the domestic market share of the SUV-producing giants.

Apparently Germany's Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) is considering building a new plant in Alabama to produce Jettas and next-generation Passat sedans, and possibly a small new SUV called the Tiguan, as well as the Audi A5. The plant will cost an estimated $788 million and employ several thousand workers. No decision was made about the plant's location at a meeting on Wednesday by Volkswagen's management board, and VW is reportedly also considering sites in Tennessee and Michigan.

This would not be the first time VW produced cars in the U.S. From 1978 to 1988, the company produced over a million vehicles, mostly Rabbits, in New Stanton, Pa., near Pittsburgh. But VW's quality and reputation suffered in the 1980s, and the company now has less than 2% of the American market. However, VW is making a great comeback across the globe, and senior managers must think the time is right to start selling more cars in the massive North American market, the world's largest.

We have heard a lot of news over the past 12 months about the slowing economy and the effect it is having on major American automakers like Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), but how are some smaller overseas automakers performing? As you may have guessed, the pain is not solely being felt by American automakers, and several European automakers are taking some measures to offset the slowdown.

PSA Peugeot Citroen SA, France's biggest carmaker, warned it expects a decline of 4% for West European sales this year, while Fiat SpA, Italy's biggest automaker, announced it plans to shut Italian plants on concerns about soaring record oil prices and increased inflation.

Hurt by declining consumer spending, Fiat saw its sales plunging 16.5% in June. But this was not the worst and Peugeot warned about "an even greater slowdown" for European demand in the second half of the year. "The rest of the year is going to be a disaster for European manufacturers,'' Stephen Pope, London-based chief global market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, stated in a report on Bloomberg.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) will try to increase its market share in China during the second half of the year. The overall market there is growing at a 21% rate in 2008. According to Bloomberg, "The Detroit-based automaker plans to invest $1 billion annually in China over the next three to five years."

GM will introduce a number of new models in the big Asian country, one of which will be a hybrid.

But, sales in China may not be enough to help to GM. Its market share is still dropping in a weak U.S. market. While China may not have been a competitive market a decade ago, every major auto company in the world wants a piece of the action now.

GM is up against Toyota (NYSE: TM), Volkswagen, and several other companies that already have large factories and joint-ventures with local operators. The home-grown Chinese companies do not want to be bested by their foreign rivals. In other words, GM is hoping to get much of its international growth out of the most sought-after market in the world.

Without a big win in China, GM's global problems could deepen.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Nissan and Chrysler will begin to build full-sized pick-ups together. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Chrysler will start building a large pickup for Nissan at its truck plant in Saltillo, Mexico." Nissan will also build some small cars for the US company.

The deal allows both companies to increase output from some of their plants, making more efficient use of manufacturing facilities and the arrangement could also cut design costs for the two automakers.

The new partnership raises the question of whether embattled Ford (NYSE:F) should do the same thing. Ford's shares trade between $6 and $7 most days, about where they were when there were rumors of Chapter 11 two years ago. Ford now has only about 15% of the US market, and, if that share falls more, it has to raise the question of how viable it is for Ford to "go it alone" in the US market.

Ford could turn to several partners, but the most obvious one is Volkswagen. VW has said that it wants to expand into the US market and has had little success here. Since Ford losses money on many of its smaller cars, an area where VW is strong, it may make sense for Ford to take VW-produced cars for its domestic dealers and have a piece of a profitable joint venture instead of losing billions on its own.

At the end of the day, Ford has to do something.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Priceline.com, Monster and Internap were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Susquehanna downgraded Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Neutral from Positive as they believe upside may be difficult given the macro environment, competition, and currency headwinds.
  
• JP Morgan lowered Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's expectations for higher 1Q08 operating expenses.
  
• Internap (NASDAQ: INAP) was downgraded by Merriman to Neutral from Buy as they believe upside will be limited until the company can complete its integration of the VitalStream CDN acquisition.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) was downgraded at WestLB to Add from Buy.
  
• Merrill downgraded Getty Realty (NYSE: GTY) to Sell from Neutral.

Volkswagen says that by 2010 it can produce 10 million vehicles and pass Toyota (NYSE: TM) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) as the world's largest car company. According to the Sunday Times, "To those who suggest that closing a 3m vehicle gap (Toyota produced 9.4m last year) is a very tall order, company management explains that, in 2006, the number of conventional passenger cars made by Volkswagen and Toyota was fairly similar -- 5.2m for Volkswagen and 5.5m for Toyota -- and that the difference is made up by 4x4s, 'people carriers' and light trucks."

Volkswagen only recently introduced a full range of these multi-purpose vehicles, which will play an important part in its future growth

VW may find that things don't go as planned. As a new entrant to the pick-up and SUV markets, the company will find global competition for not just Toyota and GM, but also Ford (NYSE: F), Nissan, and Honda (NYSE: HMC). Most large countries also have local car manufacturers who may not be anxious to give up a large piece of their business.

While VW may have a chance to get a reasonable piece of the auto sales in huge countries like China, it has almost no market share in the world's largest car-buying nation, the U.S. Taking away business from a desperate company like Ford and a successful company like Toyota may be nearly impossible.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Despite a tumbling economy where recession fears gain ground each day, car demand is rising for at least one auto maker. It looks like even in a recession people continue to need cars, and the good times are rolling for carmaker Porsche SE which reported that its first-half profit rose 44%. For this period, the sports car maker counted strong sales for its Cayenne sport-utility vehicles.

Porsche's profit climbed to 1.3 billion euros ($1.97 billion), compared with 897 million euros in the same period last year. A stake increase in Europe's biggest carmaker Volkswagen over the past two years made Porsche post a strong gain in its earnings numbers during the six months ended January 31.

Taking a look at the company's first-half revenue, we see a growth of 14% to 3.49 billion euros as Cayenne's first-half sales doubled to 20,340 SUVs, despite surging gasoline prices. The increase in Cayenne sales resulted in a 19% gain in overall deliveries. Thus, first half deliveries climbed up to 46,600 vehicles. The strong gains in Cayenne sales offset lower demand for the popular Porsche 911, whose sales fell 5.6% to 16,360.

Do you like to drive fast Italian cars? If so, you're in luck. In the next few years, you'll probably be able to buy a zippy little Alfa Romeo -- and at a bargain price. Best of all, it will be made right here in the good old USA.

According to The New York Times, Fiat of Italy is considering building a new car factory in the U.S. to produce Alfa Romeo sports cars. Fiat hasn't sold cars here for over a decade, but the falling dollar makes the American market too potentially lucrative to pass up. Fiat believes that locating the factory in the US is the only way it can sell cars here profitably, due to lower labor and transportation costs in North America. The Center for Automotive Research in Michigan recently found that European autoworkers make $10 more an hour than autoworkers in the US.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace is investing heavily in games to go along with its successful music and video offerings, and beginning in January, thanks to a deal with games distributor Oberon, will offer hundreds of free "casual" games, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
  
• The European Court of Justice in Luxembourg overturned a law that had been on the books in Germany since 1960 to prevent hostile foreign takeovers, reported the Wall Street Journal. The immediate result is expected to be a takeover attempt by Porsche, a 31% holder of Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) shares.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Mobile Telecom company France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) is close to creating a joint venture for long distance operations in India with Indian optical storage manufacturer Moser Baer, reported the Economic Times.
• British financial services company HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) is looking to sell Marbles, the online credit card business it acquired in 2003, reported the Independent.
• The first undersea telecommunications cable linking China and the U.S. -- called the Trans-Pacific Express -- has begun to be constructed, reports the Associated Press, and it's expected to be in place before the Beijing Olympics next July. Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) is involved and says the cable will be 11,000 miles long and cost about $500M.