Continue reading The Stock Market Rally Lacks Conviction

The Stock Market Rally Lacks Conviction originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Sep 2010 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Another record for ETF volume during the market volatility: Coincidence? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Oct 2008 09:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) volatility decreases as share price stabilizes. CFC, the largest U.S. home mortgage lender, is recently up $1.30 to $28.04. CFC call option volume of 10,877 contracts compares to put volume of 17,814 contracts. CFC August straddle is priced at $4.20. CFC September option implied volatility of 98 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) volatility of 25 above 26-week average of 19. GE closed at $39.10. GE over all option implied volatility of 25 is above its 26-week average of 19 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) over all volatility of 61 above 26-week average of 33. BSC closed at $113.81. BSC over all option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: Countrywide Financial (CFC) volatility subsides originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 0.24 to 13.53

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE:AMD) calls (quoted in Pennies) busy on chatter of private equity cash infusion. AMD is recently up $0.46 to $13.87. AMD has been frequently subject to LBO chatter; today chatter is circulating that a friendly private equity-strategic partner could surface to make cash infusion. Speculation is that AMD could announce a deal similar to the deal Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ:SUNW) announced on 1/23/07, when it received a $700 million dollar private placement from KKR. AMD call option volume of 73,560 contracts compares to put volume of 9,747 contracts. AMD April option implied volatility of 41 is below its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) implied volatility is low. Meg Whitman enters ninth-year working as eBay CEO. EBAY is recently up $0.23 to $31.72. Meg Whitman has an estimated net worth of $1.2 billion according to Forbes, much of it in EBAY stock. Years ago, Whitman said she would leave EBAY after eight to ten years. Whitman joined EBAY in 1998. EBAY has a market cap of $43 billion. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) has a market cap of $270 billion. EBAY overall option implied volatility of 34 is below its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, indicating decreasing risks.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Daily option update - March 21, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Mar 2007 13:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 0.57 to 14.02.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) April option implied volatility-Risk stays elevated into EPS.
MS operates its business through four segments: retail brokerage, asset management, institutional securities. Investors expect to hear more about MS plan to spin off its Discovery Card, a company with 50 million card members and four million merchant /cash access locations. MS is expected to report EPS of $1.88 on 3/21 according to Thomson First Call. MS April option implied volatility of 28 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) volatility and volume Spikes on canceled CEO speech, LBO and PALM chatter.
MOT is recently up $0.46 to $18.74 on LBO speculation. Carl Icahn entities own 1.39% of MOT. The Chicago Tribune reported MOT CEO Edward Zander canceled his keynote speech at the cell phone's industry annual U.S. trade show, CTIA Wireless. Chatter is also circulating that MOT could purchase Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM). MOT call option volume of 35,471 contracts compares to put volume of 18,121 contracts. MOT April option implied volatility of 35 is above a level of 30 from 70-minutes ago. MOT average option implied volatility over the last 26-week average is 29 according to Track Data. Increasing option volume and implied volatility suggests larger price risk fluctuations.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Daily option update - March 20, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 14:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 1.38 to 15.41

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) -- implied volatility indicates low Risk. BA's first flight for the 787 Dreamliner (airplane #1) is "expected-targeted" in late August 2007. BA held a quarterly media briefing with commercial airplanes' CEO Scott Carson. BA is recently up $.32 to $90.31. BA's overall option implied volatility of 22 is near its 26-week average of 24, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) -- April option implied volatility suggests Flat risk into EPS and Outlook. ORCL is expected to release EPS of $.23 after the close on March 20. Wachovia says "we anticipate in-line or better results, solid guidance for the rest of the year, and upbeat perspective on the market environment. Maintain Outperform." ORCL April option volatility of 28 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: AtheroGenics (NASDAQ: AGIX), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Qaulcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM).

Daily Option Update - March 19, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Mar 2007 11:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Is volume no longer a valid indicator for small stocks? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 10 Mar 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 18.46

Washington Mutual -- (NYSE:WM) implied volatility & put volume indicates Aggressive Risk. WM, a consumer and small business bank with assets of $346 billion, is recently down .87 to $41.71. According to SNL Financial for The Wall Street Journal, WM has loan loss reserves of 0.60%. This is below banks set aside average of 1.09% at the end of last year according to data from 518 publicly traded banks according to SNL. WMcall option volume of 8,889 contracts compares to put volume of 38,848 contracts. WM April option implied volatility of 28 is above its 26-week average of 18 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

MGIC Investment Corp. -- (NYSE:MTG) volatility & put volume elevated suggests hedging of risk. MTG provides private mortgage insurance in the to the home mortgage lending industry.SBSH lowered its price target to $71 on "MTG's '06 10-K, filed yesterday, provided revised guidance regarding C-BASS -- indicating that the 1Q07 earnings contribution from unconsolidated subs will likely be 'materially lower' YOY." MTG call option volume of 2,291 contracts compares to put volume of 9,136 contracts. MTG April option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), New Century (NYSE:NEW), Novastar (NYSE:NFI) & Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).

Daily Option Update - March 5, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .20 to 10.22.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) -- option implied volatility decreases after SIRI merger of equals announced. XM Satellite Radio is recently up $1.70 to $15.67. SIRI and XMSR to combine in $13 billion merger of equals. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share. RBC Capital Markets says "Incremental synergies for XMSR and SIRI should be approximately $7.96/share and $1.73/share. We estimate 50%-75% probability transaction will be completed." XMSR April option implied volatility of 49 has decreased below its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) -- implied volatility suggested less risk in XMSR deal. Sirius Satellite Radio is recently up .27 to $3.97. SIRI is expected to report EPS on 2/27. Bear Stearns says "The deal would need to gain regulatory approvals to be consummated -- at this point, we have yet to form an opinion on whether the deal would receive these regulatory approvals." SIRI June option implied volatility of 39 is below a level of 47 from last week according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Daily Option Update - February 20, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Feb 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .02 to 10.25.

Compass Bancshares-(NASDAQ:CBSS) option volume heavy & implied volatility up to 24 from 15. CBSS is recently up $3.91 to $65.67. Compass Bancshares, a financial services firm based in Birmingham, Alabama, is up on unconfirmed chatter SunTrust-(NYSE:STI) is interested in a M&A transaction with CBSS. CBSS call option volume of 3,887 contracts compares to put volume of 999 contracts. CBSS daily average volume over the last ten business days is 424 contracts. CBSS March option implied volatility of 24 is above its 26-week average of 16 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Bidu (NASDAQ: BIDU).

Daily option update - February 15, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Feb 2007 14:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .63 to 11.07.

New Century Financial Corp. (NYSE:NEW) implied volatility & put volume Aggressive on Subprime risk

New Century Financial is a real estate investment trust, providing mortgage products to borrowers nationwide, is recently down $1.95 to $17.29. New Century Financial sold off 35% yesterday after announcing it would restate operating results for the first three quarters of 2006. Roth Capital says, "we have no reasonable basis on which to calculate estimates of GAAP earnings, taxable income, dividends or fair value. We are, therefore, suspending our estimates, price target and rating."

New Century Financial call option volume of 16,187 contracts compares to put volume of 41,414 contracts. NEW March option implied volatility of 92 is above a level 69 from yesterday and its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting aggressive price fluctuations.

Continue reading Daily Option Update - February 9, 2007

Daily Option Update - February 9, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Feb 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .27 to 10.59.

New Century Financial Corp. NYSE: NEW implied volatility bid up as NEW sells off on restatement. New Century Fin'l, a real estate investment trust, providing mortgage products to borrowers nationwide, is recently down $8.72 to $21.45. New Century Fin'l announced it will have to restate operating results for the first three quarters of 2006. Merrill Lynch downgraded NEW to Sell, Jeffries lowered to Hold & Friedman Billings downgraded NEW to Underperform. NEW March option implied volatility of 69 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

H&R Block-NYSE:HRB April option implied volatility & put volume elevated on hedging. H&R Block is recently down $.30 to $24.54. Soleil said on 2/7/07 "we rate H&R Block Buy; $29 price target. We believe Block is close to entraining sale of the company (whole or in parts)." H&R Block call option volume of 2,945 contracts compares to put volume of 42,299 contracts. HRB April option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Cisco-(NASDAQ-CSCO), Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM), Bristol Meyers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Daily Option Update - February 8, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Feb 2007 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.19 to 11.16.

Equity Office Properties Trust's (NYSE: EOP) volatility is at 15 into Blackstone raising bid to $54 cash. Equity Office Properties is recently trading at $54.66, suggesting a higher bid is expected from other groups. Equity Office Prop announced it has amended its merger agreement entered on 11/19/06 with Blackstone Group. Blackstone will acquire all of Equity Office Prop common stock for $54 a share in cash. A group led by Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) had bid $52. Equity Office Properties' overall option implied volatility of 15 is near its 2-month average, according to Track Data.

Akamai Technologies' (NASDAQ: AKAM) February option implied volatility flat is at 50. Akamai will report EPS on 2/7/07. Akamai, a leading global service provider for accelerating content and business processes online, recently traded at $53.47. Deutsche Bank has a $59 price target on Akamai . Alex Brown said, "We expect Akamai to deliver a strong 4Q with potential upside to our estimates on strong internet retail sales during the holiday season." Akamai's February option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ: AAPL), US Steel (NYSE: X), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com.

Daily option update: January 25, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Jan 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .32 to 10.02.

eBAY, Inc.-(NASDAQ:EBAY) option volume & implied volatility elevated at 52 into EPS

eBAY, an operator of a global online trading marketplace including an electronic payment platform PayPal, is expected to report EPS of .28 cents after the close. EBAY will implement fee changes-increase on 1/30/07. EBAY February option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, indicating larger risks.

Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW) option volume heavy, implied volatility decreases as GLW rallies on EPS

Corning reported 4th quarter EPS of .31 cents verses consensus estimates of .28 cents. Corning is recently up $2.00 to $20.84. Buckingham has a $34 price target on Corning. Corning call option volume of 46,801 contracts compares to put volume of 16,919 contracts according to Track Data. Corning February option implied volatility of 31 is below a level of 44 prior to Corning releasing EPS. Decreasing option implied volatility suggests decreasing price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY).

Daily Option Update - January 25, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Jan 2007 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Today the Volatility Index S&P 500 Options (VIX) was up .03 to 10.80.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) puts bid higher than calls on difficult to borrow into earnings per share and speech. SunPower designs, develops, manufacturers, and sells electric power products, systems, and services. SunPower will report EPS on 1/25. President Bush's State of Union Speech is expected to emphasize renewable and alternative fuels as a source to decrease reliance on foreign oil. SunPower February call option implied volatility was at 48, puts at 59 because SunPower is difficult to borrow. SunPower 26-week average option implied volatility was 50 according to Track Data.

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ:PEIX) implied volatility was flat as PEIX rallied into the State of Union Speech. Pacific Ethanol is engaged in the business of marketing ethanol. PEIX was up $1.45 to $18.30. Crude oil was up 1.86% to $53.55. President Bush's State of Union Speech is expected to emphasize renewable and alternative fuels as a source to decrease reliance on foreign oil. Freidman Billings says "we are raising our price target for Pacific Ethanol from $16 to $20 and moving from a Market Perform to an Outperform investment rating based on expectations for positive momentum in the stock resulting from an increasingly favorable regulatory environment." Pacific Ethanol February call option implied volatility was at 55, puts at 64 on Pacific Ethanol being difficult to borrow and expected downward Pacific Ethanol price pressure. Pacific Ethanol 26-week average option implied volatility was at 61 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is recently down .22 to $54.45. Goldman Sachs increased its 2007 EPS estimates to $4.60 from $4.56. Citicorp over all option implied volatility was flat at 15 according to Track Data.

Option volume leaders today were: Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Pfizer Inc.(NYSE: PFE), Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), and eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).

Daily Option Update - January 23, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Jan 2007 16:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options were up today .37 to 10.79.

Tyco's (NYSE: TYC) option implied volatility was flat as investors digested the Tyco SEC spin-off filings. Tyco is expected to break itself up into three publicly traded company's at the end of April of 2007 (Electronics $12.7 billion in revenue, Healthcare $10 billion in revenue & Fire & Security Engineered products $18 billion in revenue). Prudential said "Investors buying Tyco shares based on sum-of-the-parts valuation may want to reconsider given that prevails expected highest multiple businesses likely to incur highest tax rates (30%+) in year 1 & 2." Tyco's overall option implied volatility of 21 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN), Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com.

Daily Option Update - January 22, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Jan 2007 17:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX was down .44 to 10.41.

Triad Hospitals (NYSE:TRI) option implied volatility and volume was elevated on an expected event. Triad has been frequently mentioned as a leveraged buyout target over the last nine months. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) said they were "converging toward a binary event." Bank of America added "our ear on the ground' suggests the company is indeed entertaining potential buyers." Alex Brown said "reiterate Buy on potential near-term catalyst." Triad reported 2005 annual revenue of $4.7 billion. Triad has a market cap of $3.68 billion with long term debt $1.6 billion. Triad's call option volume of 21,413 contracts compares to put volume of 12,344 contracts. Triad's February option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting increasing fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com.

Daily Option Update - January 19, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Jan 2007 16:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Earlier today I noted some options buying in Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX) DEC $20 calls and how the price of the stock has been stable because of a general lack of sellers. At the time we were just on track for another day of average volume and a slight uptick.

Then the 11:30 AM buying frenzy came. We started seeing big volume and a lot seem to be block purchases. At 3:22 PM EST the stock has traded north of 33.3 million shares, well above the 25.5 million shares on an average trading day. Now the shares are up 2.1% at $20.40. While the high on the day was $20.52, this will be another recent new high close, barring anything unexpected. The previous 52-week high was $20.13.

We also saw more options activity in the name too. The December $20 calls have now traded more than 14,000 contracts -- and that 10,000 contract buyer I wrote about earlier today is actually up almost 50% since this morning! The purchases were for $0.45 earlier and the last print seen was $0.65. Even the JAN 07 $22.50 calls saw more than 17,700 contracts trade and almost all were speculative buys more likely than not. This volume also is far too much and at too close of a time to be attributed only to options activity the day before expiration.

Could this be short covering? It is possible, but honestly most short covering goes into an event or ahead of an event. This generally looks like block buying to me.

We'll have to see if any additional stealth news comes out of if there are any upgrades that would have accounted for the sudden trading volume and options volume. So far this will be another near-term high in the stock.

Buying frenzy for TWX today originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Nov 2006 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Fall trading season starts today, leaving the slow trading days of summer behind. Time Warner opened at $17.22 the day after Memorial Day. Shares closed Friday at $16.76.

TWX now trades slightly above its 50-day simple moving average of $16.50 and slightly below its 200-day moving average of $17.25. The stock is clearly range-bound for the time being.

Volume, which has been running about 16 million shares a day over the last two weeks, should pick up to the 20 million share range.

After closing at $16.76, up 14 cents last Friday on 12.2 million shares, TWX dropped $.04 after hours.

Another Warner studios film, The Wicker Man, got a slow start over the weekend, bringing in only $11.7 million, according to Reuters.

Time Warner 9/5/2006: Comments at the open originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Sep 2006 08:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What does it take to move this stock price? A lot apparently. Today General Electric closed at $33.93, down four cents on volume of 16.4 million shares -- making it the eighth most actively traded stock on the Big Board.

A lot of buying and selling going on, but the stock stayed in a narrow range of $33.80 to $34. Of the top ten most active stocks on the NYSE, it had by far the smallest percentage point change in share price.

How do you spell stability? G-E

Closing bell for GE: Lots of buying and selling nets out at a 4 cent price drop originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Apr 2006 17:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.