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Today's technical outlook: No bottom in sight

With the market breaking to new lows last week, the market ended the worst six months of trading since 1932. But even with the Dow and the broader-based indices down more than 50%, there appears to be no bottom yet in sight for the major indices.

Some technicians are calling for at least a modest reflex rally, and that certainly is overdue. Perhaps we even saw the beginning of it yesterday.

But don't count on making money on reflex rallies unless you're almost perfect at picking tops and bottoms -- and I know of few traders who can consistently perform that bit of magic.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: No bottom in sight

Option Update: Volatilities at all time record highs, indicating movement

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options - VIX at 79.12; 10-day moving average is 63.99.

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 - VXN at 78.81; 10-day moving average is 67.89.

NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ overall implied volatility at 52; 26-week average is 34.

Russell 2000 - IWM overall implied volatility at 62; 26-week average is 34.

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 78; 26-week average is 44.

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on October 29. CMCSA November option implied volatility of 111 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option update 7-26-07: Market volatilities spike to 12-month highs

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options - VIX up 3.61 to 21.67 10-day moving average is 16.98 according to Track Data.

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 - VXN up 2.25 to 21.16; 10-day moving average is 17.80 according to Track Data.

NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ overall option Implied Volatility at 21: 26-week average is 19.

Semiconductor Holders Trust - SMH option implied Volatility 25; 26-week average is 22.

IShares Russell 2000
- IWM option implied volatility at 28, 26-week average is 19.

ISE Sentiment Index - ISEE 91 new Calls purchased for every new Put today. ISEE 10-day moving average is 150. ISEE 50-day moving average is 139.

August front month Equity Options expire; 8/17/07.

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Daily Option Update - February 27, 2007

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX is up 3.78 to 14.93. VXN 10-day moving average is 10.77. S&P's recently down 2.45%.

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100-VXN up 3.84 to 19.82. VXN 10-day moving average is 15.84. NASDAQ 100 recently sells off 3.41%.

Weyerhaeuser-(NYSE-:WY) implied volatility suggests non-directional risk into Domtar (NYSE-DTC) exchange. On 2/2/07 WY announced a split-off transaction in which each $1 worth of WY tendered will receive $1.11 worth of DTC stock. WY announced on 2/26 that security holders of DTC have voted to approve the plan to combine DTC with the fine paper business of WY, the deal is expected close in March. WY is then expected to be a buyer of its own stock and then possibly announce a more tax efficient structure for its timberlands. WY call option volume of 12,427 contracts compares to put volume of 8,133. WY over all option implied volatility of 22 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Kohl's-(NYSE:KSS) options suggest non-direction price risks into 3/1 EPS & Outlook. KSS, an operator of 817 stores, will report EPS on 3/1. First Call is expecting EPS of $1.43. Buckingham Research says "We are maintaining our neutral rating on KSS ahead of its Q4 earnings report, valuation and the likelihood of difficult sales, gross margin and SD&A comparisons in the hear ahead." KSS call option volume of 1,616 contracts compares to put volume of 1,466. KSS March option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) & Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+73.0010,270.47
NASDAQ+18.862,167.88
S&P 500+6.241,093.48

Last updated: November 14, 2009: 08:33 AM

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