Walgreens (NYSE: WAG) shares are trading higher today after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to "Outperform," from "Neutral," saying that plans to limit store growth and cut down on spending should lead to better earnings. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WAG.
After hitting a one-year high of $48.09 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $31.25 earlier this month. WAG opened this morning at $32.55. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.26 and a high of $33.48. As of 1:45, WAG is trading at $33.30, up $0.97 (3.0%). The chart for WAG looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just one month as long as WAG is above $30 at August expiration. Walgreens would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), a competitor of CVS (NYSE: CVS) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), tanked Thursday. By the end of the trading session, the pharmacy's stock declined almost 23% on heavy volume. Yes, it was a horrible day in the market overall, but don't blame the market at large. Rite-Aid is simply a company to avoid, and its latest earnings data show why.
According to the AP, Rite-Aid booked a loss of $0.20 per share for its fiscal first quarter versus a profit of $0.04 per share in the year-ago period. There are some growing pains going on here, since Rite-Aid is attempting to integrate its purchase of Brooks Eckerd. That acquisition propelled the company to top-line revenue growth of 48%. Unfortunately, analysts were looking for the company to lose only $0.09 per share. The significant differential made investors feel justified in punishing the stock. Heck, I'll bless the sell-off myself.
It'll be a long time before Rite-Aid finally turns its ship around. The next fiscal year will bring more losses, and with strong competition out there from CVS and Walgreen, the road ahead for management won't be for the faint of heart. This is truly a speculator's stock. I took a look at a post I wrote on Rite-Aid back near the beginning of April. At that time, the stock was priced at about $2.89 per share. As of Thursday's close, the shares were trading for $1.35. The Rite-Aid story belongs in the horror genre, and its stock is best left to those professionals who don't mind losing money. Individual investors? This company isn't for you, in my opinion.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) reported sluggish Q3 numbers last week. Net sales increased a little under 10% to $15 billion. Net income increased a whopping two pennies to 58 cents per diluted share (the term "whopping" is used here sarcastically). According to this article, Walgreen met top-line expectations but missed the bottom-line call by a penny.
Gross margin remained relatively stable, but the net margin dropped to 3.8% in the quarter compared to 4.1% in the previous year's similar period. But same-store sales increased 3.4%, which is a decent number. Also, operational cash flow jumped over 19% to $2.5 billion. That's excellent; it's always good to see cash coming in. It helps mitigate the tepid earnings expansion. Walgreen did well with its cash-flow statement last time around as well. Walgreen management cited the economy as a factor in its earnings stats and highlighted the fact that it cut back on expenses, including advertising. Making sure costs don't get out of hand is important, but I'd be careful about eliminating too much of the advertising budget. Competing with CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), and the pharmacy at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) obligates brand-building and differentiation.
Walgreen's Q3 wasn't beyond awesome, but it was solid enough. The stock is only down slightly as I write this. As a long-term play on the need for drugstores, it's not a bad way to go.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Though the quarter is winding down, there are still earnings reports to come, including Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) and Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR). Both companies are expected to report profit growth this coming week.
Walgreen is expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to report third-quarter earnings of 59 cents per share, up 6.8% from the same period of last year, on revenue of $15.1 billion. The company has provided positive surprises in four of the past five quarters -- by two cents in the previous quarter.
Based in Deerfield, Ill., Walgreen is the largest drug store chain in the U.S. in terms of sales, and has more than 6,200 stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. In the past year, the company's revenues were $53.7 billion and its net income totaled $2.0 billion. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is less than the retail industry average, as well as less than that of rival CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS). The consensus recommendation of analysts has recently shifted from hold to buy Walgreen.
The share price is up 4.0% since the beginning of the year, and up from 11.6% from a year ago. It trades at a P/E ratio of 20.68. Shares closed Friday at $41.35.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Walgreen, Crown Castle and Brunswick were today's noteworthy initiations:
Thomas Weisel started shares of Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) with an Overweight rating and $43 target. The firm is positive on WAG's steady cash flow and solid growth profile.
Merriman believes Crown Castle (NYSE: CCI) is a core wireless holding given its high-margin, predictable recurring revenue model. They believe shares can trade to the $49-$51 range assuming management continues to execute on its free cash flow growth target. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating.
KeyBanc initiated Brunswick (NYSE: BC) with a Hold rating and expects the recreational marine market to be challenging given weakening consumer spending trends.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Citigroup initiated Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA) with a Buy rating and $21 target.
Piper assumed Teradyne (NYSE: TER) with a Neutral rating and $14 target.
International Speedway (NASDAQ: ISCA) was initiated at Stephens with an Overweight rating and $50 target.
"Shares of Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) have come under pressure in recent months, reflecting a slowdown in sales because of a weakening economy and intensifying competition," notes Richard Moroney.
The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts adds, "However, Walgreen's long-term prospects remain appealing, and the stock is attractively valued. Walgreen is a Long-Term Buy." Here is his review.
"Big, strong, and healthy, Walgreen is the largest U.S. drugstore chain as measured by revenue and the second-largest based on store count.
"The company operates more than 6,200 stores in 48 states and Puerto Rico and plans to boost the count to 7,000 by fiscal 2010 ending August. Walgreen sees long-term potential for about 13,000 U.S. stores. Prescriptions generate about 65% of total sales, with the rest coming from general merchandise.
"In fiscal 2007, both pharmacy and general merchandise sales growth outpaced the industry average, and Walgreen increased market share in nearly all of its core categories.
"Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) is no longer relegated to a tiny corner of the investment landscape; indeed, according to the Social Investment Forum, SRI now accounts for $2.7 trillion, up more than 18% since 2005," says Chuck Carlson.
Here, the editor of The DRIP Investor offers five stock that both rank high for their social responsibility and also stand out based on more traditional earnings and valuation analysis.
"The Social Investment Forum estimates that more than one in every 10 dollars under professional management in the U.S. is involved in SRI investing. What is driving the growth in SRI?
"One factor is the increasing numbers of women and younger investors among the investor populace have fueled demand for SRI investments.
"In addition, we see an increased focus on environment, social, and corporate governance issues. Further, widely publicized stories concerning global warming as well as various corporate governance issues, have caused many investors to reconsider how they deploy their investment capital.
CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), a big competitor of both Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) and Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), released its Q1 earnings last week. They were very good, and they reminded me that I probably need to throw a drugstore chain's stock in my core portfolio as a long-term play on the increasing health-care needs of the baby boomers (and every other demo, for that matter).
Looking through the reported growth rates, you can see that we're talking best-of-breed here. Revenues were up over 60%, and adjusted earnings per share increased over 18%, coming in at $0.55. The Caremark merger has obviously proven to be a good move. Same-store sales rose 3.9%, benefited in part by the early appearance of Easter in March.
According to earnings.com, CVS Caremark basically matched earnings expectations. That's okay, though, I don't think you can hold it against this big brand name. As of this writing, CVS is near a 52-week high. Buying at the 52-week high is always a dicey thing, but if you plan on holding for years, it wouldn't be that much of a concern. Shorter-term traders would need to wait for a pullback. But I like the first quarter results for CVS, and I think the stock is poised to do well over time. And like I said at the beginning, this really may be a stock for the core portion of an individual's investment program -- a true buy-and-hold idea.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
CVS Caremark Corp (NYSE: CVS) -- with 6,200 stores and a pharmacy benefits management division -- beats Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) -- with 5,997 stores -- hands down in the battle of the brands. It's bigger, its earnings are growing faster, it has a higher P/E and its stock has grown faster over the last year and five years. Walgreen wins on one measure: it has a fatter profit margin.
Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), I should disclose, is one of my least favorite companies and stocks. Nevertheless, I don't mind checking in on it from time to time when there is news about it. Yesterday, the pharmacy released sales data for the month of March (the data excludes the Brooks Eckerd acquisition). Did they change my outlook on Rite Aid at all?
No, although I should say that this wouldn't be necessarily expected; a month of same-store sales data isn't the killer app of an overall investment thesis for a retail idea. Still, shareholders follow comps religiously, and I have to say that Rite Aid's number was nothing to write home about. A 2.6% gain in sales at stores open more than a year is weak. Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) said earlier in the week that its comparable-store revenues grew by a much better 4.4%. Walgreen was able to take advantage of the Easter shopping excitement in a much better fashion than Rite Aid. It all comes down to brand and execution; Walgreen, as well as CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), are more valuable in terms of both those attributes.
I may not have been bowled over by Walgreen's recent earnings release, but I can tell you that Rite Aid's share price is downright frightening and telling -- it's telling people to stay away, or at least understand that it may be essentially like buying a lottery ticket (it closed at $2.89 yesterday). Rite Aid's same-store sales were weak, and so is its investment potential.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Luqman Arnold, the former UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) president forced out in 2001, wants the firm to split its investment bank from the private client bank, and look at selling the investment bank and asset management business, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street".
The Financial Times reported that the landmark merger that created Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) was a "mistake" that failed to benefit the financial services giant's investors, customers and employees, said John Reed, who masterminded the $166B deal with Sandy Weill in 1998. Reed, the former head of Citicorp, has advised Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit at least to consider spin-offs, sources said.
WEB SITES:
Walgreen Co (NYSE: WAG) is branching out by acquiring two companies that provide health-care services, BusinessWeek reported, following in its competitor CVS Caremark Corporation's (NYSE: CVS) shoes. Some investors are wary of Walgreen's move, but Mark Wiltamuth of Morgan Stanley sees it as a new growth avenue and as a push into services complementary to drugstores.
Walgreen Company (NYSE: WAG) reported earnings for the second quarter on Monday. Net sales grew by a very decent 10%. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.69 versus $0.65 in the year-ago period; this represents a bottom-line gain of 6%.
Considering some of the other action on Wall Street on Monday -- the increased offer for Bear Stearns, the approval of the Sirius/XM merger -- Walgreen's earnings report was simply an okay event, even though the stock closed up around 5% on the news. Same-store sales may have increased 4.7%, but the retailer sold a lot of items with lower margins this time around, thus reducing its gross-margin metric by 14 basis points (the release did cite a big shift to pharmacy sales in the quarter as having negatively impacted margins). So Walgreen needs to work on its non-pharmacy revenues. One cool thing from the report is the jump in net cash from operations -- that number increased by 10%.
Walgreen, which competes with CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) and Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD), isn't a bad way to play the long-term drug-retailing business. To be sure, baby boomers -- as well as everyone else -- will always need to visit drugstores on a go-forward basis. It's the company that can capture a significant amount of non-pharmacy sales that will prosper the most. Walgreen and CVS are excellent brand names in this sector -- I'm not so keen on Rite Aid, though (take a look at the stock price and see if you think the company might be cheap-for-a-reason, as they say).
Disclosure: I don't own any shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Leading drug store chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) and upscale specialty retailer Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) are scheduled to report earnings tomorrow. Here's a quick peek at them ahead of results.
Walgreen has beat earnings estimates in four of the past five quarters. When the company reported first-quarter results back in November, earnings came to 46 cents per share, two cents less than the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Financial, and up from the 43 cents in the same period of the previous year. For the current quarter, analysts expect 67 cents per share, compared to 65 cents in the year-ago quarter.
The company's earnings per share growth forecast for this year is 9.42%, which is better than the industry average but less than the 30.68% of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). The analysts' consensus recommendation is to hold Walgreen, and has been for the past three months. Shares have risen since hitting a 52-week low of $32.50 in January, and closed Friday at $36.78.
For news about Walgreens that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Walgreen coverage.
Walgreens (NYSE: WAG) shares are trading higher today after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to "Outperform," from "Neutral," saying that plans to limit store growth and cut down on spending should lead to better earnings. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WAG.
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