So you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign that the markets are safe for reasonable speculation. What are you looking for? Do you want to see a bull market return before committing capital? Are you waiting for signs that the economy is turning the corner? How about corporate earnings improvement?

In the near term I expect to see more and more of the proverbial corporate buybacks. As such, I suggest investors use that event as a signal on individual equity securities. The power of these validations of value can be stunning.

After the market closed on Wednesday, basic materials company, Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT), announced that it would be expanding its stock buyback program by $50 million. On the surface, such amount is a small fraction of the more than $1 billion of market value outstanding, but the move is more than symbolic.

Essentially, management is taking advantage of ridiculously low levels in its stock price. For those looking to establish a position, such a move is a great endorsement of the company and its future.

Analyst upgrades:

• Friedman Billings upgraded Synovus (NYSE: SNV) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation following the recent weakness. BASF (OTC: BASFY) and Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS on valuation and believes cash flows can cover the company's dividend.
• JP Morgan upgraded H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL) to Overweight from Neutral citing benefits from lower raw material costs.
• CA, Inc (NASDAQ: CA) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Goldman removed Boeing (NYSE: BA) from the Conviction Sell List.
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

• Oppenheimer downgraded Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) to Perform from Outperform following the company's Q3 results as they believe a recovery of revenue from ZT Online will take longer than expected.
• Friedman Billings cut Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the decline in steel demand will pressure met coal prices. The company's target was lowered to $30 from $53.
• Citigroup downgraded shares of Atlas Pipeline (NYSE: AHD) Holdings to Sell from Hold as they believe the company could potentially be in violation of its debt covenants as early as Q1. The company's target was lowered to $4 from $31.
• Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Dover (NYSE: DOV) and Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) were downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

Through May, the S&P 500 is down 5%. The interesting news to me is that some stocks have been doing phenomenally well. They appear to be benefiting from the weak dollar and strong demand for raw materials -- like oil and coal -- in emerging markets.

It happens that I picked three of them for my newsletter -- whose average stock has risen 26% since the beginning of 2008. Here are the top three -- and how much they've risen since their first mention there:

• Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) +124%. Walter is a coal, natural gas, and home construction and finance company that is spinning off the latter and is benefiting from rising coal prices.
• Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) +36%. Southwest is an oil and gas explorer that was just added to the S&P 500.
• Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) +24%. Burlington runs trains and Warren Buffett owns its stock. One analyst boosted 2008 EPS estimates from $5.90 to $6.05 due to fuel surcharges and rate increases, partially offset by significantly higher unhedged fuel costs and flat-to-modestly-lower volumes.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.