Those pundits who think guru investor Warren Buffett's time has come and his magic faded away are bolstered by a Bloomberg report that says shares in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) slumped some 19% since mid-December. Buffett has been hurt by large investments in both insurance and banks, industries that have suffered tremendously.
Lest you think this short-term lack of performance has swayed investors into looking elsewhere to park their money, many investors are looking at the fall in Berkshire stock as a buying opportunity.
According to Bloomberg, Frank Betz, a partner at Warren, New Jersey-based Carret Zane Capital Management said he'd "put a new client in Berkshire right now. [...] It's probably the highest-quality collection of individual companies that's ever been assembled. Long slides are not in the Berkshire Hathaway lexicon."
With the stock market drop, many contrarian investors think that stocks have hit bottom and are very cheap. Buffett, who is sitting on such a large cash position, may be able to take large stakes in solidly profitable yet beaten up companies.
If he decides to put his cash to work, he has the ability to get deals that happen only once or twice in a lifetime. He may end up providing returns that make his previous track record look just average. For the Buffett investors, the best may is yet come.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/1/08.
Warren Buffett has been pretty vocal about how bad the current downturn will be. The same holds true for billionaire money manager George Soros. He has even testified before Congress to make his concerns known.
Now, Eli Broad, one of the richest men in America, or anywhere else for that matter, says this is the worst economic period of his lifetime. Broad will be 80 soon.
Broad toldBloomberg,``This is worse than any recession we've had since World War II." He does not think the housing market will recover for years and sees a sharp rise in unemployment.
The "billionaire boys clubs" now seems to have formed a consensus, and almost all of it is based on the problems in the housing market. It home sales keep dropping, most of the equity people in the US have built over the last twenty years goes away. If some of these people lose jobs, defaults rise and the matter becomes worse.
You can bet against the very rich, but it is probably not a good idea. They did not become fabulously wealthy by being stupid.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
So far, we had InBev putting in the offer and Anheuser-Busch taking its sweet time to reply while trying to thwart the offer by talking to Groupo Modelo. If Anheuser can manage to buy the remaining 50% of Modelo, it would be too big for InBev to swallow. Thursday, though, Anheuser finally replied. Unanimously, no less. I wonder if somewhere around that boardroom full of directors, one at least represented the interests of BUD's second largest shareholder, Warren Buffett's Berkwhire Hathway (NYSE: BRK.A).
In response, InBev said it might ask Anheuser shareholders to unseat the whole board. InBev filed suit "seeking a judgment to confirm that shareholders acting by written consent could remove all of Anheuser's directors without cause." I'd say they might even have cause. The $65 per share offer represented a 35% premium at the time. What's so "financially inadequate" about that?
Well, as Anheuser Chairman Patrick Stokes said, the offer undervalues the Bud Light and Budweiser brands, which he calls iconic. Whatever he calls them, they are the top two selling beer brands in the world. He also said InBev undervalues BUD's growth prospects. Well, if Anheuser could restructure on its own, it should have done so by now and not wait until it was up against the wall with its shareholders. The plans it has and wants to put in place will take a while to bear fruits no doubt.
As InBev has stated, it'd rather take over BUD under friendly terms (a bit of an oxymoron there, but that's the business world). Otherwise, it could either take the tender offer directly to shareholders or get into a fight similar to that Icahn has on his hands with Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s board, which may not be pretty. Replacing a whole board for a new slate can, and will, get ugly. Or it can do both.
If InBev decides to play nice after all, it may have to raise its bid. Maybe they should all chill and drink a Molson (NYSE: TAP). Things will look better after a few...
InBev, the Belgian mega brewer, has told the King of Beers that it won't wait forever for it to make up its mind about whether to accept its unsolicited $46.3 billion offer. In the third and probably not the last letter to Anheuser-Busch CEO August Busch IV, InBev CEO Carlos Brito points out that his company's offer, which represents an 18% premium on its all-time high in 2002, is a generous one.
"The market reaction to our proposal has been extremely positive," Brito writes. "We believe this confirms our view that our proposal is the best way to achieve this transformational combination for all constituents."
InBev has already lined up financing for its $65 per share offer and has even paid about $50 million in commitment fees to its bankers. Budweiser's long-time headquarters in St. Louis will be maintained as will its senior management team. It does not get any better than this for a company about to be acquired.
On Friday, the board of Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (NYSE: BUD) met and discussed the $46.3 billion unsolicited bid from rival InBev NV. However, there was nothing announced to its eager shareholders.
But, hey, why speed things up? Might as well keep InBev guessing, right?
And, there's much for the rumor mill to chomp on. For example, Carlos Fernandez said he has resigned from Anheuser's board. He is the CEO of Grupo Modelo, which is half-owned by Anheuser.
One possibility is that Anheuser will buy the rest of Grupo, making it tougher for InBev to pull off its buyout. So, does the resignation mean that Anheuser and Grupo are talking about such an arrangement?
It's really tough to tell. Perhaps Grupo is actually talking to InBev? After all, it looks like Grupo wants to remain independent.
Yet, all this stuff seems more of a sideshow. The fact remains that Anheuser can't ignore InBev and is under lots of pressure to sell out (especially in light of its sluggish operating performance over the past few years).
Actually, Adolphus A. Busch IV sent a letter to Anheuser's board urging negotiation with InBev to get a deal done. He's the uncle of the CEO, August A. Busch IV.
Finally, there is another interesting dynamic: Warren Buffett. His company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), owns 5% of Anheuser's shares. No doubt, it should be interesting to get his views on the matter.
Overnight, Belgian newspaper De Standaard wrote that, based on its sources, Warren Buffett backs an InBev buy-out of Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD).
Is it any wonder? BUD can try to greatly improve its earnings on its own. With 50% of the US beer market, that may be hard. It can hope that buying the piece of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo that it does not already own will help profits. More likely it will increase debt or dilute current shareholder.
BUD's problem is that its shares may never see $60 again. They have risen above that on the InBev offer. A look at the company's long-term shock chart shows it has never been this high before.
If Buffett makes his backing of the InBev offer public, most of the BUD investors are likely to follow. He will have done all of them a favor.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
There aren't many defenses to InBev's mega $46.3 billion unsolicited bid for Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD).
Though, there are is one interesting option: the "scorched earth" approach. Essentially, this is when a company takes a transformative move -- such as a huge dividend or a major acquisition -- to make itself unattractive. Yes, it's brutal and shareholders don't like it. But, it does happen.
In the case of Anheuser, it may decide to make a bid for Grupo Modelo, which is the largest beer company in Mexico (and controls the Corona brand). In fact, Grupo Modelo Anheuser already owns half the company's shares and it looks like talks are already in progress (according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which is a paid publication).
The problem: basically, Grupo Modelo might not want to sell out. If anything, the company may see the InBev's mega deal as a way to buy back the 50% stake from Anheuser.
But, interestingly enough, Warren Buffett may be the ultimate power broker. After all, his firm, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) owns 5% of Anheuser. And, according to a report in the Guardian, it looks like Buffett is going to meet with August Busch IV, who is the CEO of Anheuser.
This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.
Warren Buffet has placed a bet that a group of top notch hedge funds cannot beat the returns of an S&P 500 index fund, net of fees, costs and expenses, over the next 10 years.
On the other side of the bet is Protege Partners, a firm that makes its living finding the world's best hedge funds for its clients.
Under the terms of the deal, Protege picked five top notch "fund of funds" hedge funds. It is betting that the average returns of these elite funds will beat the returns of Vanguard's low cost S&P 500 fund.
The winner gets $1 million. Both sides have agreed to donate the proceeds to charity.
I have been following General Electric (NYSE: GE) for years, believing it was a sadly underperforming stock with high quality businesses but a lackluster management team who at least from outward appearances are just caretakers. They have added almost no shareholder value in ten years in the form of stock appreciation and in fact have gone down lately, as the chart indicates.
Although I have been interested in the stock, I was always able to find something more compelling and I always wanted a bargain. When it was $40, I had a buy order in at $36, then lowered it to $34, then $32, and finally $30, where we bought in on Friday. Today it touched a 52-week low of $29.78 but is trading over $30 as of 2:30. (UPDATE: closing price $30.33 up $0.27, +0.90%)
Ever wonder why conventional wisdom is so conventional? It's because it's the same people repeating it over and over.
The reason why this happens is mostly laziness. Reporters and TV producers call on the same people to render their opinions because they are the ones who return calls and show up when they are needed. I have done it myself so I know the drill well. Yes, Woody Allen's claim that 80% of success is showing up continues to be proven right. These people can be summed up in several categories: wisemen -- they almost always are male -- whose every utterance is treated as if it was etched in stone tablets by the almighty, and insta-pundits -- who are able to give quotes on every topic imaginable. Finally, there are the personal finance gurus whose message is that by helping me make money, I can help you save money.
Below are my choices for the most overexposed business pundits and media personalities. They are in no particular order.
Wisemen: Alan Greenspan -- Don't you miss the days when no one understood what the former Fed Chairman was talking about? Now, his message is pretty clear: buy my book and the subprime mortgage crisis was not my fault. Honorable mentions: former General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) Chief Executive Jack Welch, billionaire George Soros, and oilman Boone Pickens.
A story yesterday in Business Week, A Mideast Valley of Peace discussed how the development of a $3 billion canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea is gaining some traction. There is both Arab and Israeli support for the idea which would bring industry, tourism, and most importantly water through desalination plants to a very thirsty location.
According to the report the ambitious project is being energized by 60-year-old billionaire Itzhak Tshuva, who was born into a poor family of 11 who crammed into a single room after immigrating to Israel from Libya in the 1940s. He went on to build a global real estate empire that includes New York's Plaza Hotel, as well as a recently announced $8 billion luxury hotel, retail, residential, and casino complex on the Las Vegas Strip.
Equally important, the project is getting a warm reception in parts of the Arab world. This so-called Valley of Peace is part of a 520-kilometer (323-mile) corridor being proposed by Israeli President Shimon Peres for regional economic development. Peres says he has received letters of support from both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan's King Abdullah II. And according to Israeli press reports, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal -- known for his investments in Western icons such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- recently told Tshuva that he will support the project through Jordan.
These past weeks, the deteriorating stock market that responds to expectations of slower or no economic growth in 2008, continued high oil prices, sagging housing market, high debt consumers and the financial industry quagmire, got me thinking about "my pal Warren" again.
It's times like these, when we are looking for a solid footing in the investment world, the few people with positive track records -- measured in decades, not years -- are worth examining once more.
Last year I started a series of stories on Warren Buffett's very basic investment cornerstones. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) has such a track record. Today, given how many companies are up to their penthouse executive suites in debt, I thought I would continue.
The subject of debt is a simple one. Companies that carry excessive debt on their books are not as good as companies that have cash sitting around. Debt can be a drag on earnings, reduce the company's flexibility and opportunity in a slowing economy, and has all the negative impacts to a company that it does to an individual household.
In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, value investor Nathan Slaughter recently assessed stocks based on the general investment philosophy of Benjamin Graham, the noted value investor under whom Warren Buffett studied.
One issue that stands out in his view is Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), one of the world's largest specialty retailers of hunting and fishing gear, camping equipment, and outdoor apparel.
"The cornerstone to Graham's success and his enduring legacy to value investors was his 'margin of safety' concept. Specifically, he would take a hard look at dividend yields, price-to-book ratios, and other key metrics.
"Cabela's originated as a direct marketer and once primarily sold its products via catalog, but has since augmented that distribution channel with e-commerce operations and a growing chain of nearly 30 stores spread throughout 19 states.
The financial press is trumpeting the latest pronouncement from the Oracle of Omaha: "I believe that we are already in a recession. Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession. It will be deeper and longer than what many think."
I'm a huge fan of Warren Buffett for a multitude of reasons; I've read just about every book in print about his methodology and I would list him among my top three heroes (Gabe Kapler and Perry Como being the other two). But I can say with confidence -- and Buffett would agree -- that he has not become the greatest investor in the world ever on the strength of his macroeconomic forecasts. He applies a bottom-up approach to his investments, looking for strong businesses at reasonable prices. In his shareholder letters he's written frequently about the difficulty of predicting the future for the broad economy, and also emphasized that successful investing does not require such prescience.
He's a smart guy and his prediction could turn out to be right, but going to Buffett for macro predictions is a little like going to Albert Einstein for fashion tips. Brilliance in one area may or may not equate to brilliance in others.
Even if you agree with Buffett's prediction, borrow a line from his playbook: Don't run scared. Focus on investing in companies with competitive advantages at good values.
Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.
OTHER PAPERS:
The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.
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This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can. 
I have been following 
Ever wonder why conventional wisdom is so conventional? It's because it's the same people repeating it over and over.
These past weeks, the deteriorating stock market that responds to expectations of slower or no economic growth in 2008, continued high oil prices, sagging housing market, high debt consumers and the financial industry quagmire, got me thinking about "my pal Warren" again..gif){kind=logo}
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