Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

If you are looking for clues telling you which stocks have a good chance of increasing in value, you might want consider watching what insiders are doing. After all, talk is cheap, but when insiders put their own money on the line, you should sit up and take note.

Webster Financial Corp. (WBS) topped the insider-buying charts for the week ending July 9 as insiders snapped up 2,069,850 shares of company stock at a market value of $36,439,709. During the past six months, insiders have increased their overall holdings in the company by 19.03% and now own 16.81% of WBS stock.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Blackstone Group (BX) to outperform from market perform following the company's Q3 results and maintains an $18.50 price target on shares.
• Baird upgraded Astec (ASTE) to outperform from neutral citing relative valuation and upside from new multi-year U.S. highway funding legislation. The firm raised its target to $33 from $27.
• Goldman upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to conviction buy from neutral citing "significant" long-term growth drivers that include international growth. The firm raised its target to $45 from $36.
• Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Energizer (ENR) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) was upgraded to buy from hold at RBS.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation following the company's Q4 results but lowered its target on shares to $134 from $137.
• Citigroup upgraded Calpine (NYSE: CPN) to Buy from Hold on valuation following Wednesday's sell-off. The firm believes Harbinger's share sale reflects an issue with the shareholders, not with the company, and raised its price target on the stock to $16.50 from $13.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Knight Transportation (NYSE: KNX) to Neutral from Underperform and raised its target to $17 from $16 based on valuation and the improved freight environment.
• Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman.
• Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
• Dr. Reddy's Labs (NYSE: RDY) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says its acquisition of Harleysville could make it a great regional player in the East.

When we look back at the coming great banking consolidation making a host of new colossuses, we will think about First Niagara's (NASDAQ: FNFG) (Cramer's Take) acquisition of Harleysville National (NASDAQ: HNBC) (Cramer's Take) announced on a sleepy Monday near the end of July 2009.

First Niagara, a Lockport, N.Y., bank, earlier this year received a gift from the FDIC -- a big chunk of PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) (Cramer's Take) branches -- made necessary because PNC had too much market power courtesy of its now seemingly disastrous acquisition of National City. That move gave First Niagara a foothold in western Pennsylvania to complement its New York base.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Webster Financial, Eaton and Macrovision were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they feel the company is adequately capitalized and in a position to withstand the weakening credit markets.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Eaton (NYSE: ETN) to Overweight from Neutral citing bullish management comments at its conference last week.
  
• Piper upgraded Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) to Buy from Neutral citing the closure of the Gemstar deal.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Lehman upgraded U.S. stocks to Overweight from Underweight.
  
• Goldman added Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) was raised at HSBC to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• Jefferies upgraded ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) to Hold from Underperform.