TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says stocks will fall hard if companies can't raise dividends and instead have to cut them.

The most exciting page in the papers these days is the dividend declaration page. We cheer when a real estate investment trust affirms its dividend. We are shocked when a Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) scraps the whole darned thing. We are awestruck when a company actually announces one for the first time. I marveled at the 6.75-cent increase in Wisconsin Energy's (NYSE: WEC) (Cramer's Take) dividend last night. Wow! Now there's one worth grabbing.

No kidding: Dividends hold the key to the deceleration of the bear. When I did my analysis of Dow companies and where they could go to this year, I was acutely conscious of how important the dividends are to the sustaining of intra-day November's Dow low of 7350. You will not keep either AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take) or Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) from their lows if those dividends are in jeopardy. If Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) can't raise their dividends and instead have to cut them, or if Merck (NYSE: MRK) (Cramer's Take) thinks it is prudent to cut the dividend after that forecast, then those stocks fall and fall hard. Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take), if it were prudent, would scrap its dividend, and we have heard from General Electric (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take) how 2009 will be tough but the dividend will be maintained. However, the cutback from financial services will be so great that the dividend won't "feel" safe if the rest of the operations slow down.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

If you're looking for a reliable stock with good long term potential, you may be interested in Wisconsin Energy Corp. (NYSE: WEC). This company provides power in Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. It's a region that has been lacking in electricity infrastructure, and WEC has been approved by regulators to expand significantly. The company is calling its growth plan "Power the Future," and it has spent hundreds of millions of dollars annually for the past few years, (and expects to spend another $2.5 billion by 2010) to add natural gas, wind and coal powered plants.

In addition to getting approval to expand, WEC has also been given the latitude to charge profitable rates; because these rates are regulated they should be reliable in delivering earnings in the coming years. The downside of the stock is that the capital expenditures will keep profits down for the next couple years until the new plants start coming online in 2009 and 2010. The second quarter results reflect this situation, with revenue up 11% but earnings down 9% -- though the company still beat expectations.

If you're comfortable waiting for your returns, this is a good stock to buy. It may take a few years, but the payoff should be worth it. And it may not take that long; Goldman Sachs recently released a report with a $54 target for the next 12 months. The Goldman analyst also predicted that the dividend, which is currently low for a utility like WEC, could also grow after 2009.

Type of Stock: A rapidly growing utility with solid long-term potential.

Price Target: WEC is currently trading near its 52-week low, after hitting $50 in the spring. I think it's a solid buy in the low $40s. If the Goldman report is correct, you'll see a return of nearly 30% in twelve months, and if you can hold until 2009, you may see the stock start rising more as the new plants come online and profits increase.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kelly Services, Iron Mountain, Covenant Transportation and the biotech sector were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Merrill Lynch upgraded Kelly Services Inc (NASDAQ: KELYA) to Neutral from Sell and Iron Mountain Incorporated (NYSE: IRM) to Buy from Neutral after they adjusted estimates in the group to reflect risks of a recession in the U.S.
  
• AG Edwards upgraded shares of Covenant Transportation Group (NASDAQ: CVTI) to Buy from Hold as they believe the stock is oversold after the company was able to renegotiate its debt covenants without significant cost increases.
• Bernstein upgraded the biotech sector citing valuation and typical seasonality for the group. The firm reiterated shares of Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN), Genentech Inc (NYSE: DNA), Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) with Outperform ratings...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wedbush. The firm also upgraded shares of Kenexa Corporation (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Buy from Hold.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of United Microelectronics (NYSE: UMC) to Buy from Hold.
  
• UBS upgraded shares of Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
  
• Lehman Brothers upped regulated utilities to Neutral from Negative, and Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) and Wisconsin Energy Corporation (NYSE: WEC) to Overweight from Equal Weight.