I have always felt that for all the blabbing we do -- or blogging, in my case -- we should try as best we can to be accountable for our good and bad calls. This report is long overdue, but I will post it anyway since all of my past year's picks and results have been made public.
The market was very harsh in the early part of 2009, filling investors fear and trepidation, and sinking to a March 9, 2009 bottom. Perhaps some of the bleeding has stopped, but the economy has not healed as bears and bulls seem to carry the day, or every other day.
If there ever was a stock that was hiding in plain sight, it is that of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) which is capitalized at a tad over $150 billion and run by "my pal Warren" and his pal Charlie. That's Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, perhaps the most successful investors in five generations.
Berkshire Hathaway, a textile mill, was Buffett's first turn-around play. He was successful and started generating significant amounts of free cash-flow that allowed him to invest in other things. Those investments also paid off and eventually the original enterprise became the namesake of today's diversified giant holding company.
I selected BRK.B for numerous reasons and believe it will easily beat the market next year as has been it's history.
Is it time to take a bite out of Apple, Inc (AAPL) or leave it on the vine? After reviewing the current list by examining the stock yields and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) we will take a look at Apple for 2010.
Yesterday I dropped two stocks, but the list is still too long. In the coming weeks there will be more cuts and if I find anything of more value perhaps there will be something new.
Today it's time to do some trimming of the fourteen stocks and four options on the contenders list. This review will prioritize the companies by price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S) and return-on-equity (ROE). This does not preclude more possible stocks being added and the final list will not be done until the end of the month.
We will also compare recent stock prices to three-year highs to give us a relative idea where the stock floated in rosier times.
Bank of America (BAC) surprised the market on Wednesday by announcing that it would repay the $45 billion in TARP money it received over the next few days. This gives the company much more flexibility in compensating its employees, but it could leave the bank exposed to future economic shocks.
CEO Kenneth Lewis, who's expected to retire at the end of the month, said he wanted to take care of this before leaving the firm. This decision comes at a great time for the Treasury Department, which has been feeling the heat for committing taxpayer resources to a dicey problem without seeing much progress yet.
Look before you leap! All year long rumors have been swirling around that E*TRADE (ETFC) was on the auction block being prepared for an acquisition by a bigger fish interested in its customers and superior trading platform. I have not used E-TRADE so I do not have first hand experience. However, this has been acknowledged broadly and I have received very positive comments from regular users when I have written about it.
The leading suitor seems to be TD AmeriTrade Holding (AMTD), with Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) mentioned as perhaps having similar but less conspicuous interest. For Schwab it may be as much about keeping E-TRADE out of a competitors hands as chasing the business.
Fourteen stocks have been reviewed so far with eight of them potential contenders for 2010. These include some picks from 2009, some old dependables and a few more on the speculative side.
During the year I have written on occasion about selling put options (naked puts) because the premiums offered were very generous and from my perspective assumed market collapse. This was reflected in my July post Serious Money: The world's dumbest market
Today I am considering four naked puts and two more stocks. The options are all based on stocks now in review.
The clock is ticking away the time before the year ends and I have only begun to sort out the possibilities. In Part 1 of this series, I discussed breaking up my potential picks into three categories: contender, on the fence, and out of the running until the 10 stocks have been identified.
Four contenders have been considered so far: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) and Diageo plc (DEO).
Six more are included in today's review: EZCorp Inc. (EZPW), General Electric Company (GE), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Annaly Capital Management ( NLY), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) plus Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). These include the remaining five from 2009 and one more familiar to most investors.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
"Banks had taken a brutal beating over the last two years was brutal; the S&P Sector SPDR Financials dropped 72.0% from its high last September to its low in March," notes Brandon Clay.
"The painful declines in bank stocks appear to have stopped for now, as bank stocks have exploded off the March lows. As we've observed, financials have 'friends in high places.'
"Banks in general are showing promise as credit becomes easier. There's still a long way to go for complete recovery, but the trend is pointing up.
Money market accounts and certificates of deposit are safe, but they provide very little return on your investment. This fact, and the invigorated stock market, provoked one of my bankers, Dobrinka, at the local Santa Monica Wells Fargo branch, to ask for advice on how I would invest $25,000 if I was just starting out.
This is a common question although the starting point in terms of cash varies. It certainly makes a difference how old the person is, their general knowledge about investing and finance, and the particulars of their financial statement.
Here is what I suggested sticking to regular themes I have written about before and broadly speaking would be a conservative approach emphasizing safety, diversity, liquidity, dividends and the potential for growth far exceeding cash in the mattress or in a money market account. I also think that it is important for beginners to educate themselves so my suggestions include an educational aspect.
Where on earth can you buy things on sale for less than bargain prices?
Imagine that you were shopping for a nice shirt, or watch, or bicycle and you have been tracking the prices all year (or ten) and the thing finally goes on sale. You drive to the store and while you are in transit, unknown to you, the store manager puts a half price sticker on the item. You would be overjoyed with glee! To buy something at half the price you already thought was a bargain -- that would be amazing!
The fact is that this year the stock market has provided that opportunity. This year for the first time in most of our lives, you were able to do that to a degree that we have not witnessed before and have only read about.
After a nine-week stock market rally it is time to tally up the winners and losers. In a market where almost everything gained, there must eventually be separation between those that went with the flow and those that had something to show.
The financial stocks, with the help of the government, were able to show some positive earnings. The banks do raise the suspicion that this is a case of "managing the numbers". The government has helped them along by "reshaping" some accounting rules and giving them advance warning (and leaking to the public) of the results of its stress testing. Until now, they have gone with the flow as the hardest hit stocks and rallied the most.
I have written many times in the past year about Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and since it is up another 23.66% today, I'd like to come back to it. As an investor I have done more than just blab (or blog) about it. I have been loading up on the stock, acquiring shares at $12.00 when the bears were ruling the market only a short time ago -- a very short time ago!
In the last month, Wells is up an amazing 48.41%, and that for the safest bank in the United States. The stock closed today at $24.25, up $4.64.
In addition to buying the stock, I have been playing with naked put options at multiple levels. The extreme negativity in the market created a huge opportunity, so much so that I wrote Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans? which includes a discussion of naked put options.
Oil is moving higher today with the overall markets, as Wall Street has been seeing hints that things are starting to turn around. Part of the reason for the optimism has come in the form of strong earnings this week from Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) and Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY). If restaurants and retailers are seeing things start to rebound, its a good sign for the overall economy, and a sign that people are out there driving their cars around, which helps boost oil prices.