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Whole Foods (WFMI): Whole grain gains

"Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) has rallied recently due to two main factors: a better-than-expected earnings report released in early August coupled with a breakthrough on WFMI's deal to acquire rival Wild Oats Markets," notes Paul Tracy.

The editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor, plains, ""Whole Foods reported same-store sales growth of 7% in the second quarter. That's not quite as strong as the 9% reported a year ago, but it still represents solid growth and was above what analysts had expected."

He adds that wWhile earnings fell on a year-over-year basis, that was due mainly to costs associated with WFMI's new store openings. These costs, he suggests, represent an investment in future growth; analysts had already been expecting these higher start-up costs, and Whole Foods' earnings actually beat consensus estimates by two cents.

Continue reading Whole Foods (WFMI): Whole grain gains

Judge won't block Whole Foods acquisition of Wild Oats

In spite of John Mackey's most self-destructive efforts at getting the merger he wanted so badly blocked,. it appears that it will go through. Although the FTC says it will appeal, Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) appears poised to acquire rival Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS). Shares of Whole Foods are up 6.3% on the news after-hours. Wild Oats, the buyout target, is seeing its stock soar almost 20%.

According to the Associated Press,U.S. District Judge Paul L. Friedman's filed a 93-page document (sealed because if contains trade secrets) denying the FTC's plea to block the deal. The FTC argued that the merger would lead to higher prices for consumers, and appeared to have compelling evidence based on internal documents from the company. The deal was referred to as "Operation Goldmine" at Whole Foods, and the company planned to shutter more than 25% of Wild Oats stores. Emails from Mackey to the company's directors referred to the acquisition as a way to "eliminate a threat" and avoid "price wars".

Mackey has got to be thrilled that the deal is going through. Aside from the obvious strategic benefits to his company, the failure of the deal would likely have been pinned on him. He would have become known as "Motor Mouth Mackey": The man who helped the FTC block an important acquisition because he couldn't shut his trap.

Analyst initiations 6-1-07: WFMI, INTC, Oshkosh ...

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The truck industry, Roo Group (RGRP), Accuray (ARAY) and TomoTherapy (TTPY) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • In the trucking industry, FTN Midwest initiated shares of Cummins Inc (NYSE: CMI) and Navistar International Corp (NASDAQ: NAVZ) with Hold Ratings and Oshkosh Truck Corp (NYSE: OSK) and PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ: PCAR) with Buy ratings.
  • ROO Group (NASDAQ: RGRP) was initiated with a Buy rating and a $3.75 target at Think Equity, which believes RGRP is positioned to capitalize as the Internet continues to grow as a broadcast medium for video.
  • Soleil initiated shares of Accuray Inc. (NASDAQ: ARAY) with a Buy rating and $30 target. The company is Soleil's top pick in radiation oncology.
  • Soleil also initiated shares of TomoTherapy Inc. (NASDAQ: TTPY) with a Buy rating and $25 target, as the firm believes all-in-one imaging and radiation oncology system in HiArt could become the new standard of care.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Elan Corp (NYSE: ELN) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $40 target at Leerink Swann, which added shares to the firm's Focus List as it is positive on the Tysabri opportunity.
  • Cree Inc (NASDAQ: CREE) was initiated with a Buy rating and $50 target at Amtech, as the firm believes the time for LED adoption has finally arrived and will accelerate in the future.
  • Nollenberger initiated shares of ZipRealty (NASDAQ: ZIPR) and Move, Inc (NASDAQ: MOVE) with Neutral ratings.
  • CIBC World Markets initiated shares of Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) with a Sector Underperformer rating and $38 target, expecting the company to be impacted by increasing competition.
  • BMO Capital Markets initiated shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with an Outperform rating and $10 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analysts upgrades 6-1-07: Dell, WFMI, Boyd Gaming

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dell (DELL), Boyd Gaming (BYD) and OmniVision Tech (OVTI) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards to reflect the strong April quarter results.
  • Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE: BYD) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia due to ongoing improvement in the locals business through revenue growth and cost reductions, expected benefits at Borgata from the summer season, and a new hotel tower at the property.
  • OmniVision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at American Technology and to Buy from Neutral at Merriman to reflect the company's improved revenue and gross margin outlook.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Universal Compression Partners (NASDAQ: UCLP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards, as the firm believes the potential for additional asset acquisitions creates likely upside to estimates.
  • UBS upgraded shares of Norsk Hydro (NYSE: NHY) to Buy from Neutral and shares of Lear (LEA) to Neutral from Reduce.
  • Cowen upgraded VistaCare Inc. (NASDAQ: VSTA) to Outperform from Neutral and added shares to the firm's Focus List. Cowen believes the company's decision to review strategic alternatives will unlock value.
  • Matrix USA upgraded shares of Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Sell from Strong Sell based on valuation.
  • CHLM upgraded shares of 3D Systems Corp. (NASDAQ: TDSC) to Accumulate from Neutral.
  • Cantor upgraded shares of NMS Communications Corp. (NASDAQ: NMSS) to Buy from Hold on potential restructuring benefits.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Whole Foods: Multiple signs indicate to stay on the side lines

Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI) is showing multiple signs it is not time to jump into this stock, yet. Comp sales are slowing while costs are increasing--a margin squeeze which could be with the company for a while.

Comparable store sales grew 6% which appears solid considering it came off a 12% increase in the prior year. However, it was below the 8% to 10% long-term goal Whole Foods has been targeting.

Private label grew 16%, which is another sign of increased competition. A&P, plus others, are coming out with some nice remodelings which can compete against Whole Foods. Also, one must remember, the organic food company sells expensive stuff, although that has not dissuaded consumers in the past.

Another sign of growth moderation is that average transactions per week increased approximately three percent to 3.4 million, and average basket size increased approximately three percent to $34.

Overall, Whole Foods is a company that can still make a lot of money for investors when its increased investment in new store opening proves fruitful. Wait for management to indicate margins have bottomed and comps are about to ramp after the new-store openings begin to show up in results.

Whole Foods' technicals look appetizing

Yesterday, I wrote a blog post called A great buy about a bullish recommendation on Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ:WFMI). The advice came from advisor Paul Tracy and was based on a long-term fundamental assessment of the company and its business outlook.

Equally bullish, but approaching the stock from a different perspective, is Bernie Schaeffer, who assesses a variety of factors such options activity, short interest, and its chart pattern.

Meanwhile, in his The Options Advisor, Bernie suggests that the "good times may be just beginning for WFMI." For those familiar with technical analysis, he points to the stock overtaking its prior resistance at the 20-week moving average, overcoming "chart congestion" at the $50 mark, and "beginning to fill in a massive bear gap forged in early November."

As a specialist in options, he also notes that the shares are now trading above "peak call open interest" in the March and May series, removing a potential options-related hurdle for WFMI.

He notes that over 7.5% of the float is sold short (a bet made by those who believe the stock will decline). He speculates, "Should the equity's turnaround efforts continue, short sellers may choose to hunt for other opportunities."

Further, he notes that the stock's accumulation is five times the stock's average daily volume. He believes that a rush to close out these positions could help to add some lift to the shares.

Reader should note that yesterday's post on WFMI specifically referred to a recommendation to buy the stock. As an options expert, Schaeffer's recommendation -- which inherently entails higher risk -- is to buy call options. Specially, he recommend the Whole Foods January 2008 with a strike price of $45.

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

What will the combined Whole Foods-Wild Oats mean for Wal-Mart & Target?

As was reported by several of us here at Blogging Stocks a few weeks ago, Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ:WFMI)looks to purchase one of its largest competitors, Wild Oats (NASDAQ:OATS). This has been the speculative rumor in the niche grocery merchandising field for a few years and it finally came to pass. Whole Foods sees newly intense competition in the health food market from competitors like Trader Joe's and others. My guess -- it does not want to lose mainstream grocery customers to the likes of discount food retailers Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT).

In an effort to reach the increasingly health-conscious grocery consumer, both discount chains have stepped up offerings of healthy items and particularly organic grocery items. More and more consumers are discovering that many mainstream, processed foods are filled with unhealthy chemicals and they are now demanding more healthy eating options. As a result, Target in particular is stepping up its efforts to attract that consumer (more so than Wal-Mart, in my experience so far). That puts the more niche but growing retailers like Whole Foods and Wild Oats in the somewhat-cloudy crosshairs of the $52 billion Target and $380 billion Wal-Mart.

I do believe, however, that while the customer demand for more healthy foods will not only continue but rise over time, smaller (but still huge) retailers like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's will continue to attract a certain kind of shopper who almost flat-out refuses to buy groceries of any kind at mass merchants. The thing is -- Whole Foods is going to become one of those mass merchants with the Wild Oats purchase. Will that dilute the brand?

Whole Foods may bite off more than it can chew

Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ:WFMI) announced on Wednesday February 21, 2007, that it intends to purchase rival organic and natural food supermarket Wild Oats -- based in Boulder, Colorado. The entire transcript of the announcement is available at the company's website (www.wholefoodsmarket.com).

Agreed, the natural and organic foods market is growing as more and more people become concerned about the harmful chemicals and lack of inspection mechanisms in our food chain. Also agreed, that Whole Foods is currently enjoying an increase in both sales and revenue. According to information released by the company as part of its 1Q 2007 earnings report, sales increased 12% to $1.9 billion. Whole Foods currently has 174 stores, the vast majority in the U.S. Average weekly store sales were up 6% to $620,000. Average number of weekly transactions increased 5% to 3.2 million. The average ticket size was up 2% to $34.43. For a full rundown on the facts and figures see the 1Q 2007 press release.

Given all the good financial news plus Whole Foods' intention to purchase Wild Oats for $565 million, investors pushed the stock up on Thursday February 22, 2007, 13.2%. Shares closed up $6.04 at $51.74. Enjoy that brief ride. S&P put Whole Foods on credit watch and may adjust the company's BBB-debt rating even lower to below investment quality unless Whole Foods can finance the purchase of Wild Oats without taking on $106 million in additional debt.

Beyond Spam: Hormel wants to go upscale, but can it ever shake 'King of Cheap' image?

spam standMaybe the first indication should have been when Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI) declined to carry Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL)'s fresh meats products: the King of Processed Foods might have an image problem when it started taking preservatives out of its foods.

Spam® is such an icon of preserved food that it has its entire own sub-culture, with everything from spamku to Spam cookbooks. Google's Gmail serves up Spam recipes instead of ads when you click on the spam (email) folder. Hormel's blue collar customer base adores Spam and the company's other ingredient-packed products, from chili to "deli" luncheon meats. But in fact, "shelf stable" meats have declined from nearly 20% of the company's sales in 2003 to 16.3% in the year ending October 30, 2005. Now making up the majority, 54%, of the company's sales are perishable meats -- although these include everything from the higher-quality, less-processed varieties the company wishes to become known for to the old standbys, from Hormel pepperoni to Little Sizzlers sausages to Jennie-O hot dogs.

A story in the Wall Street Journal [subscription required] this morning highlights Hormel's desires to become a healthier company, which have included innovations in preservation (High Pressure Pastuerization, develped by Washington's Avure Technologies, Inc.) and a raft of new product introductions like the Natural Choice deli meats -- the ones Whole Foods wouldn't stock. The question: if Whole Foods won't take the company seriously as a provider of natural meats, will anyone else? And will the company's loyal customers stand for it?

Continue reading Beyond Spam: Hormel wants to go upscale, but can it ever shake 'King of Cheap' image?

Whole Foods recently increased stock buyback plan by $100 million

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI), the nation's largest health and organic-minded supermarket chain, has announced on Tuesday that its Board of Directors has approved a $100 million increase in its stock repurchase program, which brings the current authorization to $200 million over the next three years.

Whole Food's CEO and Chairman, John Mackey, recently stated that "In fiscal 2006, we produced very strong operating results, returned $358 million in cash dividends to our shareholders and recently announced a 20% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.18 per share." So, with that said, and with Whole Foods apparently wanting to reduce the dilution of its outstanding shares in the next few years, the company will start buying back its common stock . The re-purchase will be based on specific timing and amounts that will vary according to market conditions and SEC limitations.

The share re-purchase program will be made using the Company's available cash resources as well as a line of credit, but as in almost all re-purchase announcements, the added stipulation that "re-purchase program may be suspended or discontinued at any time without prior notice" also comes into play -- naturally.

Whole Foods down 23% on disappointing earnings report

organicShares of Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI) tumbled more than 23% by midday in heavy trading to $46. Indications of this happening could already be seen yesterday in after-hours and this morning in pre-market trading as WFMI shares lost more than 17%.

**More recent news on Whole Foods**
Organics are bad for you, financially
Whole Foods $100 million stock buyback

Yesterday, the organic and natural foods retailer reported earnings of $39.8 billion, or 28 cent per share, a significant rise from last year's $9 million or 6 cents a share. Revenues also rose from $1.12 billion in the same period last year to $1.29 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.32 billion. Also same-stores sales rose 8.6%, but that is after a good run of double digits growth. To top it all, the company warned of slower growth in sales next year.

So despite what may sound as good growth for a retailer, it doesn't come close to the growth rate WFMI has experienced so far. It is also below what analysts had expected and worse, the outlook for 2007 is below estimates as well. This has caused analysts to warn that slowing consumer spending combined with tougher competition from mainstream grocery stores (remember even Wal-mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is now getting into organics) could squeeze Whole Foods. Alas, no more double-digit same-store sales figures in the foreseeable future.

Already B of A cut rating from "buy" to "neutral" and lowered the target price from $77.50 to $43. Morgan Stanley cut its price target on WFMI from $70 to $63.

If this continues, I wonder whether WFMI would cut prices enough for more people to shop there.

Before the bell 11-2-06: Retail sales could help stocks

Futures are positive in early morning trade, pointing to a higher start for stock.

Today investors will analyze the data from the retail sector, they will look at some economic indicators for an idea about employment, inflation and productivity. Strong retail sales could help the market rally, as are the falling oil prices of this morning.

This morning, some retailers have already reported same-stores sales and the market is now looking for a 3.4% rise in October for the industry, or a 4.9% increases ex-Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT). Wal-Mart said last week it is expecting a 0.5% gain in same-store sales (sales at stores that have been open at least a year). It had just reported as expected.

Already reporting sales data this morning are Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) with a 4% rise, Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE:PIR) with an over 13% decline in sales, and American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEOS) that reported an 8% jump in same-store sales last night. AEOS also raised third-quarter earnings guidance. The stock might still be under pressure as some were expecting a 10% rise in sales. Walgreen Co. (NYSE:WAG) Oct same-store sales rose 11.4% and J.C. Penney Co.'s (NYSE:JCP) sales rose 8.1%.

This morning, some economic data is also due out. First, weekly jobless claims will be released at 8:30, but investors are waiting the main job report tomorrow. Also at 8:30, third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs will be reported. Unit labor cost could give investors a better idea about inflation, so barring any surprises, this is the number to watch out for. Finally, at 10:00, September factory orders are due. The European Central Bank makes its decision on interest rate today.

Top news stories this morning:

According to the Wall Street Journal, Tribune Co. (NYSE:TRB) said that due to low bids, it is now prepared to sell parts of the business and will consider offers.

Unilever NV/PLC (NYSE:UN, UL) reported a third-quarter profit drop of 48% after one-time gains from asset sales. Sales rose 1.6%. The figures were at the top end of market forecasts. Unilever shares were up over 4% in Europe.

Reporting today:

  • Caremark Rx Inc. (CMX) - 63 cents per share for Q3.
  • CVS Corp. (CVS) - 32 cents per share for Q3.
  • International Paper Co. (IP) - 43 cents per share for Q3.
  • Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) - 29 cents per share for Q4.

Other stories:

Electronic Data Systems Corp. (EDS) reported third-quarter after the bell yesterday with profit climbing sharply to 24 cents per share on a 9% increase in revenue of $5.29. However the company said contracts for future work declined. Analysts were expecting 20 cents per share.

Apple Computer, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) new iPod Shuffle will arrives in stores this Friday, tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs upgraded Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) to neutral from sell.

General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) has signed a $300 million deal with a Chinese company to make jet engine parts for it.and French engine maker Snecma.

In the auto industry:

  • New car registrations in Germany are expected to have risen in October with foreign automakers boosting their share of Europe's biggest car market to 36.1%.
  • Advanced Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE:AAP) reported Q3 (ending Oct 7) net income dropped to $58.9 million, or 56 cents a share but it includes 3 cents a share in stock option expense. Revenue rose to $1.1 billion from $1 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 54 cents a share. The company also lowered Q4 guidance.

Following Baidu.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BIDU) earning, yesterday I revisited rumors of Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) buying Baidu.

Google is releasing a new version of its mobile email today.

Yahoo is going into the food business starting a site offering thousands of recipes, advice from chefs, video cooking guides and easy-to-use Web tools to help cooks answer the daily question: What's for dinner?

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) will have a fourth quarter earnings call on Thursday, Nov. 16, 5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT here.

Wendy's (NYSE:WEN) is offering DVD movie kiosks at its restaurants.

In Pharma: Global pharmaceutical sales grew 5% in the 12 months to August in leading markets, the same rate as recorded a month earlier. Pfizer Inc's (NYSE:PFE) Lipitor cholesterol pill remained the top-selling drug with sales of $11.6 billion.

Russian oil output fell again in October partly because the country and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) holding back the start up of full-scale production due to differences.

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR) and Cingular Wireless (held by AT&T (NYSE:T)) announced a partnership to stream 25 XM music channels to Cingular handsets.

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