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Option Update: Disney volatility elevated; shares near 30-month low

Disney (NYSE: DIS) closed at $28.26 Monday. DIS is expected to report Q4 EPS in early November. DIS November option implied volatility of 54 is above it 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) closed at $70.10 Monday. WHR is scheduled to report Q3 EPS in late October. WHR overall option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $34.20 Monday. Crude oil futures are recently up 3.89% to $91.23 according to Bloomberg. PBR October option implied volatility is at 167; November is at 127; above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst calls: AAI, AMR, CAL, POT, AIG, DHI, PHM, GS, JPM, LOW ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • UBS believes US airlines estimates are too low and will move higher. The firm upgraded AirTran (NYSE: AAI), AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), Delta (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest (NYSE: NWA) to Buy from Neutral and JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) to Neutral from Sell.
  • JMP Securities upgraded DealerTrack (NASDAQ: TRAK) to OUtperform from Market Perform as they believe 2H08 guidance represents a floor and that 2009 estimates are achievable, among other reasons.
  • Potash (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) were raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
  • Argus upgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Buy from Hold on Friday.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Jefferies downgraded Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Underperform from Hold as they do not see a catalyst for the company to grow into 2009 consensus estimates. The firm lowered their target price to $25 from $32.
  • Citigroup said following Lehman's (NYSE: LEH) bankruptcy, they expect a distressed-sale of American International's (NYSE: AIG) MBS portfolio, resulting in the worst quarter yet for the company. Shares were cut to Hold from Buy.
  • D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) was downgraded to Sell from Hold and Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) was downgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • Merrill downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) to Underperform from Neutral.

Continue reading Analyst calls: AAI, AMR, CAL, POT, AIG, DHI, PHM, GS, JPM, LOW ...

Before the bell: Futures down on SBUX, AMZN, despite AAPL, Ford

It seems that despite Apple's crushing earnings and sales estimates Wednesday and Ford swinging to profit this morning, investors are wary of earnings. Stock futures declined early Thursday following Amazon's earnings, Starbucks' profit warnings as well as other companies. In addition, debate over an expected pause in the Federal Reserve recent wave of rate cuts as well as some data seem to leave investors more on a cautious mood this morning.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday after better-than-forecast results from Boeing (NYSE: BA) helped sentiment on the Street, albeit in a choppy manner. The Dow industrials finished nearly 43 points higher, or 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose almost 4 points, or 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 28 points, or 1.29%.

Today, several economic reports are due out. At 8:30 a.m., weekly initial jobless claims will be released, as well as March durable goods orders. At 10:00 a.m., new home sales will come out, where another drop is expected.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures down on SBUX, AMZN, despite AAPL, Ford

Analyst downgrades: Thornburg Mortgage, Whirlpool, Jackson Hewitt

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Thornburg Mortgage, Whirlpool and Jackson Hewitt were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) to Hold from Buy to reflect the ongoing dislocation of the mortgage markets and lowered their target to $3.75 from $14. While they believe Thornburg will probably survive its current liquidity crisis, they think the company's capital structure will be impaired further.
  • JP Morgan downgraded Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) to Underweight from Neutral, citing valuation, higher steel prices, the difficult macro environment and competition.
  • Stephens cut Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect the company's recent results and concerns over the issues that have impacted the basic business.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Merrill lowered Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO) to Sell from Neutral.
  • Lehman downgraded PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Tessera (NASDAQ: TSRA) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Early analyst calls: FNM, TMA, DD

Morgan Stanley upgraded Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) to "equal weight" from "underweight," according to Briefing.com. According to the news service Jefferies downgraded Thornburg (NYSE:TMA) from "buy" to "hold."

DuPont (NYSE:DD) started as "outperform" at Credit Suisse, according to Briefing.com. The website also reported that Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) was downgraded to "underweight" at JPMorgan.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: To solve our problems, we need to solve housing

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says before stimulus plans or anything else, we have to get some homes moving.

Hurry. Hurry with the rate cuts. Hurry with the stimulus package. Hurry with the bond insurer bailout. Hurry with the write-offs. Hurry with the Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) limits. Hurry with something, anything, because things are still going down and they are going down with increasing speed.

That's what the market said yesterday and the market is saying today already with this ridiculously low 10-year treasury that has not produced the break down to the 4.5 level of 30-year fixed that we need so badly to clear out the inventory of unsold homes.

It is all so obvious that everything has to be hurried. It doesn't take Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) saying there is little light at the end of the tunnel this morning or Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) saying this is the worst market in two decades, but that's the feedback we are getting.

Intra-meeting rate cut? We need one yesterday.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: To solve our problems, we need to solve housing

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Huge money flood on a 50-point cut would lift stocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we're flat or down ahead of the right Fed action today, several sectors will take off.

Every rate cut matters now. We are in that zone where money in can overwhelm existing stocks and move them up simply because there hasn't been a lot of new supply -- ex banking preferreds -- and the buybacks kick in.

Let's take the homebuilders. As crazy as it was, the homebuilders bought a huge amount of stock back, and the supply is unusually low. That means you get exaggerated moves as that money comes in from the sidelines.

Same with stocks like Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) or Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take), where just a little bit of buying seems to move the stocks absurdly.

I think much of this is a function of money not getting a good return on the sidelines, and we see that the shrunken floats actually work.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Huge money flood on a 50-point cut would lift stocks

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Why foreigners find U.S. buys so unattractive

Jim Cramer on BloggingStocks TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the poor outlook for this economy has stemmed the flood of takeovers from abroad we'd normally see in this kind of market.

Where are the Europeans? Where are the Asians? Where are the Middle Easterners? Are they all cowed into not buying our companies despite the decline in the dollar?

Consider that there have been only two deals above $10 billion this year: AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) (Cramer's Take), which bought Medimmune for $15 billion, and Saudi Basic Industries, which purchased GE Plastics for $12 billion. No one has taken advantage of the astounding decline in the U.S. dollar to buy up enterprises.

Take two that seem absurdly low: Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take). Both companies have bought in an immense amount of stock. Both companies now trade at $5 billion in value. Give them a 25% haircut and you can see how much these name-brand companies are marked down.

But nobody cares.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Why foreigners find U.S. buys so unattractive

Breaking down GE's Industrial business: A BloggingStocks series

General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) Industrial segment is worth between $20.2 billion and $21.7 billion, according to my estimates.

GE Industrial, which constituted 20.5%, 22.1% and 22.9% of GE's revenues in 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively produces and sells products including consumer appliances, industrial equipment and plastics, and related services. It also provides asset management services for the transportation industry.

GE Industrial strikes me as a hodgepodge of businesses that should either be fixed or sold. In the second quarter, this segment's revenues declined while its profits increased slightly. I was intrigued that Keith Sherin said that its appliances unit generated a return on total capital of 70%. On the other hand I wonder about how many of the other units within this segment earn such high returns.

Assuming that GE Industrial generates net income of $1.3 billion in 2007, here are the range of valuations based on the Price/Earnings ratios of the following peer companies:

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns General Electric shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned in this post.

Analyst initiations 6-13-07: BDK, DKS, FO and NOK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: This morning's noteworthy initiations included Nokia Corp (NOK), Fortune Brands, Inc (FO), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc (DKS), Kona Grill, Inc (KONA):
  • JP Morgan started Nokia Corp (NYSE: NOK) with an Overweight rating, believing the handset market is strong and expects gross profits to rise in 2007.
  • Soleil wants to wait on the sidelines of Fortune Brands Inc (NYSE: FO), initiating shares with a Neutral rating, given the potential acquisition of Sweden's V&S Group along with the softness in the home and hardware segment.
  • Soleil also started Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR) with a Hold rating based on valuation, which they believe reflects the company's outlook through 2009.
  • Nollenberger expects Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) will continue to outperform its peers, starting shares off with a Buy rating, and believes the recent pullback provides a compelling buying opportunity.
  • KeyBanc is positive on Kona Grill's (NASDAQ: KONA) differentiated brand, compelling unit economics, positive SSS opportunity and growth, starting shares with a Buy rating...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Ceva, Inc (NASDAQ: CEVA) was initiated at CIBC with a Sector Outperform rating.
  • Black & Decker Corp (NYSE: BDK) and Briggs & Stratton Corp (BGG) were initiated with Hold ratings at Soleil.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Newspaper wrap-up 6-08-07: NBC to play live ads

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" wrote that NYC tax medallion financier and owner Medallion Financial Corp (NASDAQ: TAXI) is a play on the rising value of the New York City's taxi medallions, currently worth $600K each.
  • The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC next week will use a 1950s standard, live advertisements, to keep viewers watching commercials in the age of digital video recorders.
OTHER PAPERS:

Cramer's 'must own list' of short supply stocks

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC Jim Cramer addressed the opportunity created by the big down day. He thinks some stocks are so loved that hedge funds and mutual funds just keep buying. These funds can't buy what they want all at once any longer, so they just keep buying and then the smaller funds jump on board. The other change is that the companies are shrinking because of buybacks. On days like today they sold off and that's an opportunity for you to buy. The floats on these are small enough that they almost trade like small cap stocks. He has a dozen of these stocks:

Whirlpool (WHR), Black & Decker (BDK), Allegheny Tech (ATI), General Cable (BGC), Honeywell (HON), American Standard (ASD), Johnson Controls (JCI), McDermott (MDR), Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Caterpillar (CAT) and Terex (TEX), and Deere (DE).

What Cramer is talking about does have some merit, but keep in mind that when this happens there is a mad rush at the exits when the line ends. In a world where funds are now in the tens of billions of dollars, this is becoming an issue. He's touting it a bit too much and these are names that are probably better for the public to buy on short-term weakness rather than on strength.

This follows up on yesterday's feature by Cramer where he sort of touted this as a scam on Wall Street in Qualcomm (QCOM).

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Analyst upgrade 4-15-07: ABFS, ALU, AMZN and CAKE upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Arkansas Best Corp (ABFS) and Capital One Financial Corp (COF) were today's more noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR) to Hold from Sell with a $107 target after better-than-expected Q1 results.
  • Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Piper Jaffray, to Hold from Sell at Citigroup, to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen, to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest and to Buy from Hold at BWS Financial.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Time for the Maytag Man to get to work

Maytag, which is part of Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), has found some problems with some of its washing machines that are forcing a recall of around 2.3 million appliances.

Faulty wiring in some of the company's Maytag and Jenn-Air brand dishwashers has so far led to a reported 135 fires and four injuries. According to the company, the problem has to do with liquid rinse-aid leaking from the appliance's dispenser into internal its wiring, causing the appliance to ignite.

This recall could effect consumers who purchased an under-counter or portable plastic tub dishwashers with black, white, almond, bisque or stainless steel front panels between July 1997 and June 2001.

Maytag will be offering owners of these appliances two different options for dealing with their faulty dishwashers: Either free home repair, or a $75 credit towards the purchase of a new machine.

If you think this recall could effect you then you would want to contact Maytag at 1-800-675-0535 or visit the company's Web site at http://www.repair.maytag.com.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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Last updated: October 07, 2008: 11:47 PM

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