Antitrust is always tough to predict. The laws are sketchy -- and markets can change quickly. Besides, politics can play a big role.

That's why the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)'s antitrust lawsuit -- on the Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Wild Oats Markets (NASDAQ: OATS) linkup -- is so interesting.

The FTC believes that the transaction will reduce competition and, as a result, be harmful to consumers.

However, federal Judge Paul Friedman doesn't think so. In fact, yesterday we got his 93-page opinion on the matter (according to a report in Reuters).

Reuters has written that the progress in the Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) merger with Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS) may be a sign that other mergers being scrutinized by the US government may have an easier time of getting approval. Not likely.

The FTC has tried to block the Whole Foods deal because it may raised the amount that consumers have to pay for organic food. Of course, other food retailers offer these products, so the government's position was probably always a bit thin. The agency went to federal court to try to block the marriage, but was unsuccessful.

Now Reuters is floating the theory that the apparent success of the grocery store merger may make it easier for Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) to merge with rival satellite company XM (NASDAQ: XMSR).

The concept is full of holes. Sirius and XM are a de facto duopoly and, merged, would be a monopoly. Their ability to send satellite signals with radio content to receivers is not a business that any other company can enter. That is not really a bit like the Whole Foods situation.

The SIRI/XMSR merger is also a deal that faces opposition in Congress. Legislators want to know why they should countenance a business combination that not only lacks any competing technology but is also one that may use its position to raise rates over time.

The news about the Whole Foods merger may be good for it, but the deal has nothing to do with satellite radio.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

In spite of John Mackey's most self-destructive efforts at getting the merger he wanted so badly blocked,. it appears that it will go through. Although the FTC says it will appeal, Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) appears poised to acquire rival Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS). Shares of Whole Foods are up 6.3% on the news after-hours. Wild Oats, the buyout target, is seeing its stock soar almost 20%.

According to the Associated Press,U.S. District Judge Paul L. Friedman's filed a 93-page document (sealed because if contains trade secrets) denying the FTC's plea to block the deal. The FTC argued that the merger would lead to higher prices for consumers, and appeared to have compelling evidence based on internal documents from the company. The deal was referred to as "Operation Goldmine" at Whole Foods, and the company planned to shutter more than 25% of Wild Oats stores. Emails from Mackey to the company's directors referred to the acquisition as a way to "eliminate a threat" and avoid "price wars".

Mackey has got to be thrilled that the deal is going through. Aside from the obvious strategic benefits to his company, the failure of the deal would likely have been pinned on him. He would have become known as "Motor Mouth Mackey": The man who helped the FTC block an important acquisition because he couldn't shut his trap.

Given Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) CEO John Mackey's penchant for posting too much information on his blog/anonymous message boards, it might seem ironic that the company is considering suing the FTC for inadvertently posting the company's trade secrets on the internet.

On Tuesday, the FTC failed to completely redact Whole Foods' trade secrets from a court filing that was posted on an online database. Reporters caught the glitch, and information was leaked.

Some of the information that should have been redacted included an assertion that Whole Foods prevents its suppliers from selling directly to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) in an effort to raise the retailer's costs.

Both Whole Foods and Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS) have an option to terminate the merger agreement if it does not gain regulatory approval by the end of the month.

Shares of Wild Oats continue to languish more than 20% below the agreed upon price, indicating investor skepticism about the deal's prospects.

The battle over the proposed Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) acquisition of Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS) is getting even more complicated. In a U.S. District Court, two antitrust experts gave opposite opinions [subscription required] on whether the merger would be anticompetitive.

One expert argued that the two chains compete in a much broader market -- grocery stores -- with much bigger chains like Safeway and Kroger also in the space. But another expert discussed research suggesting that markets containing a Whole Foods and a Wild Oats store tend to have lower prices, which would suggest that they are in fact competing.

The U.S. District court is expected to issue a decision on the FTC's preliminary injunction seeking to block the merger some time in the next few weeks.

Given that this doesn't appear to be a black and white issue, as evidenced by disagreement among the experts, CEO John Mackey's "macho posturing" emails could end up looming large, as they seem to suggest that the merger is motivated by a desire to eliminate competition. Not only has he embarrassed himself and run into trouble with the SEC for his message board post, but he may also have harmed his company's growth prospects with his overactive typing fingers.

Today was a big day for Whole Foods Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) as it had its court date regarding the merger with Wild Oats Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: OATS) and reported quarterly earnings after the close. As of 5:47 p.m., WFMI stock is up 10.1% in after-hours trading.

Chronologically then:

The question before the court today was whether these two companies constitute a unique market, as clearly they both compete with several other companies that sell organic foods, some as large as the world's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). However, if Wild Oats acts as a constraint on Whole Foods, then a combined company would have greater pricing power. Key to the FTC case (which filed the suit against the $565 million merger) is an e-mail sent by Whole Foods CEO in which he says the deal would enable the company to "avoid nasty price wars." Mackey was also found leaving messages on Yahoo! message boards.

After the close this afternoon, Whole Foods also reported third-quarter earnings. While profit slipped 8.9% in the most recent to 35 cents per share, it beat analysts estimates of 33 cents per share. Sales were 13% higher during the quarter reaching $1.51 billion, a little short of the $1.54 billion estimated by analysts. The organic grocer was hit by costs on new stores. Whole Foods spent $15 million on preopening and relocation costs.

Key metric same-store sales rose 7% -- impressive, but less than the 9.9% jump a year ago. CEO John Mackey noted that comparable sales so far in the fourth-quarter have stabilized, as indicated from July 7.6% same-store sales growth. Next year, Mackey said he expects to open even more stores. As for the merger, he was hopeful it would be approved.

By 6:12 p.m., WFMI shares are up 8.3% in after-hours trading to $40.10.

The question facing analysts and investors in Whole Foods International Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) ahead of Whole Food's earnings release next week has got to be the effect of CEO John Mackey's recent "macho posturing" and the FTC anti-trust suit to block the merger with Wild Oats Markets (NASDAQ: OATS). Wild Oats doesn't feel that circumstances warrant anti-trust action, as there are plenty of markets for organic produce. Time will tell if the FTC agrees.

Whole Foods fell short of expectations in the previous two quarters, according to Thomson Financial, but the one-year EPS growth rate is 5.2%, better than the industry average. Wall Street is looking for EPS for the current quarter to be .33. The current consensus recommendation is to hold WFMI.

The share price has dropped from its 52-week high of 66.25 last October, to a 52-week low of 36.00 at close on Friday, in the midst of last week's market downturn. Overall, the price has trended downward this past quarter. In the meantime, investors and analysts will just have to hold their collective breaths and wait to see what next week brings to the market in general, and Tuesday's earnings release to Whole Foods specifically.

More Whole Foods coverage:
Peter Cohan: Whole Foods CEO determined to do himself in -- electronically
Jon Ogg: Meet the next Whole Foods ... Kroger
Sarah Gilbert: Whole Foods acquisition of Wild Oats may be blocked by FTC: Monopolistic organics?
Eric Buscemi: Whole Foods: Multiple signs indicate to stay on the side lines

Monday July 30

• Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. Analysts will look at Verizon's marketing strategy [particularly for FiOS], infrastructure improvements, and operating expenses. Above-average debt remains a blemish, but Wall Street will overlook that if Verizon registers impressive subscription and market share statistics, and demonstrates that its fiber optic-based FiOS Internet/TV network roll-out timetable for major markets remains on schedule.
• Monster Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: MNST) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10am. Monster is expected to register adequate, albeit decelerating revenue growth in Q2 compared to Q1, hence the grade for the company's performance may hinge on analysts' projection regarding the likely revenue scenario moving forward.

Tuesday July 31

• Federal District Court Hearing to decided whether to approve the FTC's application for injunction blocking the proposed merger between Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Wild Oats Markets Inc (NASDAQ: OATS).
• FDA 8am Gastrointestinal Drugs and Drug Safety and Risk Management Joint Advisory Committee Hearing on Biogen Inc's (NASDAQ: BIIB) Tysabri for Crohn's Disease.
• RegenRX Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: RGN) to update on its clinical trials program at 4:30pm.

Wednesday August 1

• PDUFA date for GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) / POZEN Inc's (NASDAQ: POZN) Trexima for migraine headaches.
• Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TEVA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
• Sales Conference Calls: Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) at 1pm; General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) at 2pm
• Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 5pm. After recent sluggish stock performance, some analysts see Starbucks snapping back in the quarters ahead: Starbucks is expected to add a breakfast sandwich at 4,000 stores/coffee houses, which could increase per-store revenue by $70K annually.

Thursday August 2

• Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11am. Note that the volatility in Kodak is elevated going into its earnings report.

Friday August 3

• Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) CEO John Mackey deserves the gold medal for understatement for calling his anonymous posts on Yahoo message boards an "error in judgment" in one of the least convincing apologies ever. Monumental stupidity is more like it.

What puzzles me about this issue is why a rich, successful and well-regarded CEO like Mackey would even care about the opinions of a bunch of chat board clowns? Is he really that narcisstic that he needs to constantly prove to his greatness? That's really kind of sad when you think about it.

Mackey now is making shareholders pay the price for his insecurity. The Wall Street Journal reports today that the SEC has launched an informal probe of his conduct. In particular, regulators are going to see if Mackey gave overly optimistic statements on the message boards, the paper said.

A special committee of the board also is investigating the matter, which came to light in part because of the regulatory review of its planned acquisition of Wild Oats Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: OATS) which has encountered stiff opposition.

Mackey, who co-founded Whole Foods, seems to be most sorry that he got caught. Any lower-level executive who did what he did would have been at a minimum reprimanded and possibly fired. Though Mackey says he meant no harm, he still needs to be taught a lesson.

Whole Foods should strip him of any options grants awarded to him this year. Mackey should also reimburse the company for any costs its incurred to defend him. Oh yeah, he should be banned from ever posting information on Yahoo chatrooms even under his own name.

He ought to have better things to do with his time.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) says that its two hedge funds tied to subprime loans are basically worth nothing, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
• An "error in judgment" is what Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI) chairman and CEO John Mackey called his anonymous blogging about his company and rival Wild Oats Markets Inc (NASDAQ: OATS) in an apology, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• SEC chairman Christopher Cox wants Congress to tighten its oversight of the $2.4T municipal bond market, the result of increasing complexities in the bond market and lax leadership at a number of firms, reported the Wall Street Journal.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is planning to offer $24M to acquire Macy's Inc (NYSE: M), according to Women's Wear Daily (subscription required).
• The U.K. Times reported that Barclays plc (NYSE: BCS) has deided against raising its bid for ABN Amro Holdings (NYSE: ABN).
• Honda Motor Co. (NYSE: HMC) is increasing its production capacity in North America and in other places, in order to meet growing demand for its fuel-efficient cars and to maintain momentum for global growth, reported the Associated Press.

Carrying on in its heralded tradition of misguided editorials, The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) published a real doozie today. According to the piece:

Reading about the covert blogging of Whole Foods CEO John Mackey, we were reminded of a New Yorker Cartoon from some years ago featuring two mutts and a computer. "On the internet," one says to the other, "nobody knows you're a dog."

Apparently U.S. financial regulators don't get the joke. They're responding to Mr. Mackey's anonymous blogging by treating him like a dog -- or more precisely a potential violator of U.S. securities laws, with the bonus goal of scuttling Mr. Mackey's attempted purchase of Whole Foods competitor Wild Oats. The SEC is leaking (as usual) that it has opened an "informal" enforcement probe. Sure, "informal."

As Gary Weiss pointed out, the issue wasn't his blogging, which he didn't do anonymously. He was caught posting on Yahoo!'s message board for Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) without identifying himself. And his posts appear to have been pretty misleading: He talked down competitor Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS) while his company was pursuing its acquisition. It has also been reported that Mackey made predictions about the future stock price of Whole Foods, which is completely inappropriate.

The issue here is that Mackey's posts seem to fly in the face of Regulation FD and in defending him, the Wall Street Journal (or more specifically, its editorial page editors) is taking on that regulation. Shame on them.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that John Mackey, the CEO of Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI), used a pseudonym to blog about his company on Yahoo message boards for eight years, including panning rival Wild Oats Markets Inc (NASDAQ: OATS), which Whole Foods is trying to buy.
• Carl Icahn's American Real Estate Partners new offer of $37.25 a share for Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA), supported by the Lear board, has been rejected by proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Service, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that two institutional investors, Buckingham Capital Investment and Morgan Stanley, have sold about 3.2M shares of Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (NYSE: BBW), as they feel the company won't get much more of a premium as a takeover target, if private equity is still even interested at all.
• JP Morgan Chase and Company (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) have obtained key roles advising Apollo Management on its expected IPO, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to representatives from Congress, exclusivity deals like Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) multi-year iPhone contract with phone provider AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) trap customers, forcing the users to stay with the providers as long as they want to continue using certain devices, reported AppleInsider.com.

The CEO of Whole Foods Markets Inc. (NYSE: WFMI) is proving to have an ability, rare among CEOs, to hang himself with his electronic words. The Wall Street Journal reports that between January 2000 and last August, John Mackey used the name "Rahodeb" -- an anagram of his wife Deborah's name -- to make nearly 1,400 posts at Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Finance message boards designed to pump up Whole Foods' stock and denigrate that of its then-rival Wild Oats Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: OATS).

My favorite Rahodeb quote was used to cut Wild Oats down to size. He often criticized Perry Odak, Wild Oats' former CEO, who resigned last year. "While Odak was trying to figure out the business and conducting expensive 'research studies,' to help him figure things out, Whole Foods was signing and opening large stores in OATS territories," Rahodeb wrote in 2005. "Odak drove off most of the long-term OATS natural foods managers" and brought in executives who "didn't know too much about the natural/organics industry or their customers."

Meanwhile Mackey also made use of e-mail to make comments that made him look bad. His comments about the competitive impact of his proposed Wild Oats merger suggest to the government that the merger's intent is to raise consumer prices.

The FTC has sued to block Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) acquisition of Wild Oats (NASDAQ: OATS) on anti-trust grounds, and has compiled some pretty compelling evidence that Whole Foods CEO John Mackey wanted the deal for anti-competitive reasons.

In emails to members of his company's board before the deal was announced, Mackey talked about the need to "eliminate forever" the possibility that another chain could challenge Whole Foods' dominance in the industry, and also talked up the acquisition as a way to "avoid nasty price wars."

Mr. Mackey responded to the allegations the way any good executive would -- he blogged about it. He quoted several of the emails mentioned by the FTC:

It is no secret and not even a surprise that Whole Foods Market Inc.(NASDAQ: WFMI) became such a large success. Anyone who is into natural foods knows the story well. Problem is, Whole Foods is often referred to as "Whole Paycheck" because its prices are significantly higher than comparable goods elsewhere. And yet, shopping in a Whole Foods store, it is easy to realize that much of this demand is seemingly inelastic as the stores are packed and the register lines full.

Now enter Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR). Kroger used to be just another one of the many grocery stores out there. After years, the food retailer has finally figured out that not only could it carry many of the same organic and natural foods that Whole Foods does, but that it could also do it at a lower cost. To top it off, Kroger also figured out that the profit margins were better than the ones on other packaged goods of lower quality and price.