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Closing Bell: A directionless win... sort of (ETFC, EK, TM, VG, WSM)

Today was one of those directionless trading days after so many gains that there was absolutely no way to know if the markets would be up or down until the last few seconds of the day. We had a very strong durable goods reading for July and even home sales figures remained high.

Here were today's closing bell levels:

Dow 9,543.52 +4.23 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,028.12 +0.12 (0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,024.43 +0.20 (0.01%)

Top Analyst Calls
Most Unusual Volume

Continue reading Closing Bell: A directionless win... sort of (ETFC, EK, TM, VG, WSM)

Analyst initiations: U.S. retail hardlines, biofuels, IPG and OMC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Retail Hardlines Sector, the BioFuels Sector, Interpublic Group and Omnicom Group were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of International Flavors (NYSE: IFF) with an Overweight rating.
  • Wachovia initiated CGI Group (NYSE: GIB) with a Market Perform rating.
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) was initiated at RBC Capital with a Sector Perform rating and $55 target.

A recipe from Williams-Sonoma's recession cookbook

During summer and winter breaks from college, I used to work in a Williams-Sonoma, Inc (NYSE: WSM) store in my local mall. As a moderately eloquent speaker and the only guy in the joint, I managed to make quite a few sales, particularly among the key "25-40 year old, vaguely unsatisfied married female" demographic that made up most of the store's customers. One day, as my father waited for me to get off work, he watched me talk a wealthy, sour-faced housewife into buying a $49 grape drainer. Shaking his head at my salesmanship, he wondered aloud how I could convince someone to shell out a pocketful of cash for what was essentially a porcelain bowl with holes in the bottom. I couldn't really answer him and, to this day, I wonder how Williams-Sonoma manages to market its wares, many of which are amazingly useless.

In the fourth quarter of 2007, Williams-Sonoma's profit rose almost 3%, but its first-quarter same-store 2008 profits are expected to fall by between 6% and 8.5%. The store is blaming its flagging sales on the real-estate slump. While it seems reasonable to expect that people would be disinclined to buy home goods when they're having a hard time covering their mortgage payments, Williams-Sonoma is missing the big picture. In addition to its position as a major player in the home decor market, W-S is also a luxury brand store and a narrow-focus mall retailer. Both of these types of stores are facing serious problems in the current economy, one for its inflated prices and the other for its lack of diversity. Consumers looking for kitchen implements are probably inclined to go to Lechters, which is a lot cheaper, or Wal-Mart and Target, both of which have a much wider selection of merchandise. If Williams-Sonoma wants to weather this storm, it should probably follow the lead of its Pottery Barn subsidiary and start cutting its prices. In the current economy, it's hard to imagine someone shelling out $49 for a grape drainer!

Option update 11-14-07: At two-year high, Gap (GPS) volatility up ahead of earnings

Gap Stores (NYSE: GPS) is expected to report EPS on November 21. GPS December option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), a home-furnishings retailer, is expected to report Q3 EPS of 24 cents on November 15. RBCM says, "Macros very difficult; too soon for longs, but scarcity value could increase." WSM November 30 straddle is priced at $2.80. WSM December option implied volatility of 55 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst initiations 4-27-07: BBBY, ETH, PIR and WSM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Four specialty retailers initiated at FTN Midwest were today's most noteworthy moves in the market:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • CIBC started Chemtura Corp (NYSE: CEM) with a Sector Underperformer rating and $11 target on valuation.
  • C.E. Unterberg started Altus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ALTU) with a Buy rating and $12 target, believing the company's efforts to develop the first juvenile formulation of a pancreatic enzyme will be a key growth driver.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 12:44 AM

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