Do you own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) in your portfolio? If you do, then watch out. According to Engadget, the latest Xbox 360 price cut from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been very successful, and it may wreak havoc on your position.

Engadget says that the sales data show a 100% increase in Xbox 360 sales during the first weekend of the new pricing structure. And this is important for those trading Nintendo. It's of course impossible to predict short-term stock movements, but I can tell you that I wouldn't be a buyer of the ADR's right now, not at these levels. As many have been saying, the game has changed now. It could be that this initial sales spike for the Xbox 360 won't last, and that the Nintendo Wii will still be king of the holidays. There's no question demand will remain strong for the Wii. It is a good system, after all, and it has a lot of brand momentum behind it. But now that consumers can get an Xbox 360 for less than a Wii (the former's low-end model can be had for $199 while the latter is still $250), and considering the fact that the Xbox 360 is technically superior to the Wii in terms of graphics power, I'd be pretty reticent about entering Nintendo's shares unless I saw a very significant pullback in price.

Nintendo is still going to make a lot of money (remember, it has the extremely popular DS hand-held powering it as well as the Wii), and Microsoft and Sony (NYSE: SNE) still have reason to fear the video-game icon. But if growth in the Wii slows, and if, heaven forbid, Nintendo needs to make a price cut of its own, then the stock could indeed reflect a more pessimistic outlook. It's a risk that needs to be carefully evaluated, since price elasticity may come into play here with a vengeance, especially during a softening economy. Like I say, I'd be uncomfortable considering Nintendo these days unless the shares get a price cut of their own.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is riding high on its Grand Theft Auto IV title. The popular game (big understatement) helped push the top-line during the third quarter to a better than 100% gain, coming in at $433 million. As for the bottom line, forget about it -- that was blown out of the water. On an adjusted basis, net income was 93 cents per share versus a loss of $0.62 in the year-ago period.

According to Briefing.com, this simply was far more than any analyst anticipated. The bottom line bested estimates by 39 cents! Most shareholders probably anticipated Take-Two going beyond Wall Street's expectations, but I'm not sure they thought that the publisher could pull such an order of magnitude off. Nevertheless, management believes that next quarter might not be as hot as first anticipated due to some timing issues. So they guided lower for Q4. This might explain, in part, the lack of excitement surrounding the stock at the close of the after-hours session on Thursday. The stock ended up with a 0.5% gain in price.

However, all is not lost. While Take-Two thinks Q4 might not be the best thing since sliced bread, it is confident that it will be able to go beyond the original outlook for the fiscal year. Take-Two says it will deliver between $2.08 and $2.12 in adjusted earnings per share for the year. Wall Street was counting on $1.81 per share for the fiscal year. With the stock trading around the $23 mark, this would imply that the shares could be cheap.

If being the first of the new generation video game consoles to break the $200 price point on the way down means you're the loser, the call Microsoft's (NYSE: MSFT) Xbox 360 the loser.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that Microsoft is slashing the price on the basic console from $279 to $199, in an effort to boost sales before the all-important holiday season, when so many gamers (and their friends and relatives) will look to buy games. The move puts Microsoft well below Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Playstation 3 and Nintendo's Wii. According to the Journal, "Xbox 360, with a 60-gigabyte hard drive, to $299 from $349, and lowering a high-end model, with a 120-gigabyte hard drive, to $399 from $450. The company had previously offered a 20 gigabyte Xbox 360 for $299 as it sought to sell through remaining inventories of the now-discontinued product."

It's a good idea for Microsoft to make this move now, before its competitors do -- all of the consoles will come down in price relatively soon, and by being the first mover, Xbox will increase its footprint and Microsoft will benefit from increased software sales during the holiday season. In the current macroeconomic environment, price may be more of a factor in determining sales than it has been in recent console cycles.

Slashing a price by almost 30% is never a sign of success, but Microsoft and its shareholders are far better off making the move now than chasing the market down.

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

No, you're not surprised. Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) moved the most video-game consoles in the U.S. in July. According to this Bloomberg article, which cites monthly data supplied by market-research firm NPD, gamers purchased over 550,000 Wii systems. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 was snapped up by almost 225,000 players, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 sold about 205,000 units.

There's no question about it now -- the Wii should dominate the holiday season. Momentum is behind the company's strategy of creating products that appeal to casual gamers. I'd be shocked if the fad all of a sudden burned itself out, although Douglas McIntyre did write recently about the possibility of Nintendo running out of steam at some point. The Wii Fit exercise system was the second best-selling software title in July. That property is definitely helping drive Nintendo's fortunes.

In other software statistics, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) was number one with NCAA Football '09. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) came in third with its version of Guitar Hero for the Nintendo DS handheld unit. EA should come out on top again next month since the new iteration of its Madden franchise came out earlier this week. There was a lot of excitement over that game, as there traditionally is every summer.

Nintendo already has the upper hand in the video game console market. Its Wii outsells the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Sony (NYSE: SNE) PS3. But with its market penetration so high, the hyper-growth has to start slowing.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "After overseeing several years of rapid growth at Nintendo Co., President Satoru Iwata faces new challenges: how to keep players of the company's videogames interested, and how to cultivate a new wave of customers."

Nintendo's problems may be beyond its ability to solve. It can bring out new consoles and games for its current products, but the industry as a whole may be facing a slow period.

The newest game platforms are now a couple of years old. That means most of the ready buyers probably own one. Going after the market of people only modestly interest in the products will be harder, especially when compounded by a weak economy.

It may be easy to focus on Nintendo because it has such a large market share, but the entire industry may have problems until the next generation of consoles brings a large number of buyers into the market again.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Well, another month's gone by, and I see that the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system is still the number-one selling console in the United States. Guess I shouldn't be surprised. According to Bloomberg, the Wii moved over 666,000 units in June. Yeah, that may be an evil number, but it's a righteous one to Nintendo, since Sony (NYSE: SNE) sold a little over 400,000 PlayStation 3 consoles last month while Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) convinced just under 220,000 users to adopt the Xbox 360. So if you add the performance of the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 together, it's still less than Nintendo's.

Bloomberg reported that the Wii has been purchased by (or for) 10.9 million gamers, making it the number-one installed platform out there. Driving the results in June was the Wii Fit, which continues to be popular and difficult to get. However, the top-selling game software was not Wii-related, it was PlayStation 3-related, believe it or not. Metal Gear Solid: Guns of the Patriots, distributed by Konami (NYSE: KNM), sold over 770,000 discs. One big opportunity Nintendo needs to work on is third-party attachment rates. As several readers have mentioned to me, the attachment rates for the Wii isn't as good as it probably should be. Most Wii owners are in love with Nintendo-published games, but sometimes don't see the value of software made by other publishers. An increased focus on this would be helpful to the platform and its continued success.

Nintendo is setting itself up very nicely for the holiday season. Sure, it's the height of summer, but it's never too early to be thinking about the holidays, is it? I would love to get into Nintendo's stock, but I am still stubbornly holding out for a better pullback on the ADR's. I'd love to see the price close below $60 at some point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), a competitor of IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), will report its earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings summary, the software giant will be expected to produce sales of about $15 billion on earnings per share of 47 cents. These numbers would represent double-digit growth rates for each metric.

According to this estimates page at AOL Finance, Microsoft has cultivated a reputation for being reliable when it comes to delivering on Wall Street expectations. It certainly has the assets to keep this trend going. The company's operating-system monopoly, as well as its incredible success with the Office suite of products, guarantees a steady stream of cash flow and bottom-line predictability. Other investments, such as the Xbox 360 and the company's various Internet properties, aren't as guaranteed. In fact, Microsoft has engaged a very strange battle (strange to me and others, at least) to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to bolster its future prospects on the 'net.

So, here's what investors should be looking for. I will be very interested in what management has to say about its thoughts regarding Yahoo! and its utility for Microsoft. Is it an absolute necessity? I doubt it, and I really do hope that shareholders will finally get some closure on this subject. The best thing would be for Microsoft to announce that it is done with the portal. And in terms of the Xbox 360, I would be interested in hearing any new marketing strategies being readied for the holiday season and if the current recessionary environment will have any effect on sales. Microsoft recently reduced the price for one Xbox 360 model as a way of increasing that system's value proposition in relation to the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii. The company also has entered partnerships with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), according to Variety, to make its Xbox Live asset even more attractive to users looking for cool content such as movies and TV shows.

Now that the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony (NYSE: SNE) PS3 and Nintendo Wii have been in the market well over a year and big games have been developed for each one, the longer term war for market share has begun.

Microsoft intends to win that long battle by making the Xbox more appealing to a broader group of potential console buyers. According to The New York Times," Microsoft announced a collection of new games and services for the Xbox 360 that are meant to appeal to the everyday entertainment consumer."

One of the new features are avatars that act like humans. Gamers can make their own characters and use them in some of the games. The new Xbox features will also allow people to share photos and watch movies together.

While all of that may be exciting to some potential buyers, the biggest problem Microsoft has is not Nintendo or Sony; it is the economy. A game console, a half a dozen games and an Xbox Live subscription could cost between $700 to $900 a year. That kind of discretionary spending is disappearing among many middle class households. Oil, food and mortgage costs have simply become too high.

Up until now, sales for video games have defied the drop in the economy. If a bottle of milk costs $6 and gas $5 a gallon, the trend may end.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that worries are deepening among regulators, executives and consumers about the U.S. banking industry following the federal government's seizure of IndyMac Bancorp Inc (NYSE: IMB).
• According to a person familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported that Banco Santander SA (NYSE: STD) is nearing an agreement to buy Alliance & Leicester for around $2.38B.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) chairman Roy Bostock called Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) proposal "ludicrous". Bostock said that "while this type of erratic and unpredictable behavior is consistent with what we have come to expect from Microsoft, we will not be bludgeoned into a transaction that is not in the best interests of our stockholders." Yahoo reaffirmed that it is open to a sale of the company for $33 a share, the New York Times reported.

WEB SITES:

• CNet reported that the price of the Xbox 360 Pro model with a 20GB hard drive was cut by Microsoft to $299 from $349. The company also introduced introduced a 60GB model to go on sale in the U.S. and Canada in August for $349.

Sorry, Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE), but your problems just got worse. According to a Wall Street Journal (subscription required) piece, sources say that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) intends on executing a price reduction for its Xbox 360 unit that is packaged with a 20-gigabyte hard drive. It now costs $349. The new price will be $299 sometime soon.

This is not good at all for the PlayStation 3 system. It's expensive, it isn't as popular, and it would be very difficult for Sony to answer this move by Microsoft with a price reduction of its own. Gamers can get the PlayStation 3 for as low as $399, but that's a far cry from $299 in an economy that is tanking thanks to energy costs and financial-sector issues. The negative wealth effect is on, my friends, and it's only going to get worse. I recently wrote about Sony and how the company has lost a ton of money with PlayStation 3. Since the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 are considered equals in the minds of many not-so-hardcore gamers, the price reduction is going to have an effect. Of course, where does this leave Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) and its popular Wii console? Well, the Wii should be fine for now. People who buy the Wii are usually more casual in terms of gaming, so the Xbox 360 price cut most likely will hurt Sony. However, when there is eventual parity between the price of a Wii and the price of a high-end system, then Nintendo probably will see some sort of effect.

Where does this leave investors? Well, for my money, I think it leaves a best-of-breed publisher like Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) in a great spot. A higher number of Xbox 360s in homes means more opportunities to sell Guitar Hero units. As for Sony and its stock, investors should avoid it, in my opinion.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Activision closed on its transaction with Vivendi Games Thursday and officially became Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVID), according to an article at SmartMoney.com. And I am pretty excited at the prospects for the new business (I am a shareholder). It's going to be a tough competitor against Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO). (Of course, the latter two might merge at some point.)

Activision is riding high with its Guitar Hero franchise, and Vivendi Games brings an incredible asset to the table in the form of online gaming sensation World of Warcraft. I can't say I know much about World of Warcraft the game itself, but I know it has a huge following. What else do I need to know, right? For 2009, management at Activision Blizzard expects pro-forma operating income of over $1 billion and perhaps $1.20 or more in terms of earnings per share. That puts the stock, which rose over 5% on Thursday and closed with a price of $31.77 per share, with a P/E ratio a little over 26. That isn't too bad a valuation considering the growth potential. And when the holiday season comes around, I'm sure people will still be buying the publisher's software for gifts, recession or not. Whether it's the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, or the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, gamers will be buying the company's products for these platforms in droves.

The stock has retreated from the highs it reached back in June when I wrote about it, but I am still bullish on the thesis here. Activision Blizzard should do really well, but with the markets in turmoil, you can probably wait for a pullback before buying.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Man, it stinks to be Sony (NYSE: SNE). According to Forbes, the media company has lost $3.3 billion on its PlayStation 3 console so far. Wow. When the mighty fall, they fall hard. The PlayStation 3 is a heck of a powerful system, but the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii has captivated players not only with its innovative nature, but with its affordable price. Right from the start, Nintendo decided to go with less costly components so that each console sold would generate a profit. Its retail price of $250 is a lot better than $500 to a consumer's wallet, especially when a cheaper system is also a lot of fun.

And talk about a hit to PlayStation's brand equity. Here's what most people think about the third PlayStation (from my experience at least): it doesn't have a lot of games available, there aren't many kid-friendly titles offered, I don't want to pay that much for a PlayStation system so I'll just wait for further price cuts. Boy, imagine if Sony has to cut the price even further. Sony already loses a bundle on each system.

Not only is Nintendo hurting Sony, but Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its Xbox 360 is also out there causing damage. You can pick up a low-end version of the Xbox 360 without a hard drive for around $280. Too bad Sony decided to incorporate Blu-ray and hard drives into its business model for the PlayStation 3. Admittedly, I thought it was the right thing to do at the time as well, but I guess Sony and I have been proven wrong.

Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game stole the number-one position on the software sales chart for May, according to data from market research firm NPD. It sold over 1.3 million copies last month, and it has moved over 4 million since it hit the street. I figured Take-Two would be taking the top slot here, but the big question on my mind pertained to how Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system would do in May. After all, the fad has to wear out at some point, right? At some magical juncture, either Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 will displace the Wii and become the top-selling system of the month.

Well, that hasn't happened yet. The Wii sold the most, moving 675,000 systems. That was more than three times the amount of consoles sold by PlayStation 3. And as for the Xbox 360, that came in dead last, moving only 187,000 units. All told, total video-game sales, including hardware and games, increased 37% year-over-year. Yep, video games are still hot.

I'm going to predict that the Wii Fit will be the top-selling game package for the month of June. This thing is flying off the shelves in my area, even at $90 (apparently, high fuel costs aren't hurting Nintendo's clientele). Does that mean that Nintendo might make for a good short-term trade? Maybe, but I'd prefer buying it safely below $60 per share. As of this writing, it's trading well above $60 per share. I continue to hold Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) as my play on video games, and will be keeping Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) in the back of my mind as August approaches, since that will be when the new Madden game arrives in stores. Not sure if that's worthy of a trade yet.

Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.

Was it any surprise that Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) beat expectations for the second quarter? Not a chance. That's because Grand Theft Auto IV stole a lot of hardcore-gamer hearts when it made its eagerly anticipated debut back in April. Net revenues more than doubled to nearly $540 million in Q2, and adjusted net income came in at $1.52 per share. Briefing.com says that the bottom-line results were $0.39 ahead of analyst expectations. Again, we saw this coming.

Take-Two opened Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 platforms with excellent fanfare and brilliant marketing, taking full advantage of the brand equity intrinsic to the title. An impressive 8.5 million discs of the title have been sold so far. Job well done. Plus, BioShock is coming to PlayStation 3 later this year. That's going to be a major franchise in the years to come.

Yet, I will not buy the stock. With the arbitrage battle surrounding Take-Two and its takeover dance with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), I simply am discouraged from stepping in and adding the company to my portfolio. I owned Take-Two at one time, but I'm not interested in getting back in. Besides, the news is out on Grand Theft Auto, so who knows if this would have been much of a trade right now, even if the EA deal wasn't on the table. Great quarter, excellent future guidance, but I just don't see the value of playing the buyout-game here.

Disclosure: I don't own any of these companies, but positions can change at any time.