Today's early rally brings the S&P 500 index a step closer to the March 24, 2000 record closing high of 1527.36. Despite all the hoopla, it's worth keeping in mind that the benchmark measure is essentially unchanged over the course of the past seven years.

Still, the round trip from the bubble's peak does mask a dramatic contrast in the fortunes of the index's 10 underlying sectors. For example, energy shares (which have an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLE)) have more than doubled over the period, while the information technology group (AMEX: XLK) has lost nearly two-thirds of its value.

This should drive home the point that while moves in the major indices offer insights on the "pulse" of the overall market, it's often what occurs below the surface -- at the sector and individual share level -- that matters most to investors in the longer run.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

In "GDP data adds to negative outlook for stocks," I noted that various measures are signaling that a recession is imminent and that it would be bad for stocks, at least in the short run.

Under the circumstances, one course of action is to eliminate or reduce exposure to equities to minimize the risk of loss. For investors who must or prefer to remain invested, the best strategy is to avoid vulnerable sectors and favor those characterized as "defensive."

Based on what happened during the last two recessions, in 1990 and 2001, the two sectors that would best serve as safe havens during an economic storm are Consumer Staples (which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLP) and Health Care (AMEX: XLV) . Both ended up in the black six months after those downturns began, in contrast to the overall market.