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Cramer on BloggingStocks: The chips aren't down

The Street.com's Jim Cramer says that it's too soon to think about selling the semis, the PCs, the components, the DRAMs.

When do we sell the semis? The DRAMS? The flash? When do we get out of the hard drives?

These are legit questions, but the people who are asking, "When do we sell Micron (NYSE: MU) (Cramer's Take), Western Digital (NYSE: WDC) (Cramer's Take) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) (Cramer's Take)?" are the very people who told you never to own them.

That's the conundrum of this semi cycle and PC cycle. Just as we are finally hitting our stride and we realize that the semi cycle is alive and well again, AND NOT JUST RE-STOCKING, all over the papers, including the Wall Street Journal, we see reports crying, "When do we sell?"

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The chips aren't down

Xilinx comes in ahead of expectations in Q2 -- buy the stock?

The chip sector is pretty hot. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported a respectable quarter this week, and the stock is near a 52-week high. Also close to their highs of the year are Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD).

Well, you can add Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) to the list. The company, an expert on programmable logic, reported an earnings-beating quarter yesterday after the bell, according to Reuters. Xilinx made 23 cents per share in Q2, a penny ahead of analyst expectations. Revenue likewise was slightly ahead of the projections.

Continue reading Xilinx comes in ahead of expectations in Q2 -- buy the stock?

Xilinx doesn't make my buy list after Q1 report

Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ: XLNX) reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday after the bell. The technology company devoted to programmable logic said sales fell by 5% on a sequential basis and by 23% on a year-over-year basis. Not a great start to an earnings report, huh? It gets worse. On an adjusted basis, Xilinx made 21 cents per share versus 31 cents per share in the first quarter of fiscal '09. According to TheStreet.com, that 21 cents was good for a beat by two pennies.

Today, however, the market doesn't seem to be feeling the performance. As of this writing, afternoon trading saw shares of Xilinx bid down by over 3.5% on very heavy volume.

Continue reading Xilinx doesn't make my buy list after Q1 report

Cramer on BloggingStocks: So you missed the recent run -- now what?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you don't want to wait for a pullback, look abroad for the next leg or find values at home.

What do you do when everyone knows we have come up too far, too fast; no one knows who is actually buying; and we are going into earnings season?

What do you do when the animal spirits are taking up the market and yet other than a handful companies -- Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) (Cramer's Take), Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer's Take), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take) and Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) (Cramer's Take) -- almost all companies that have spoken during the "off-season" earnings reports have been dismal?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: So you missed the recent run -- now what?

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Lock in some profits

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this market is short-term overbought -- any other reasons to buy can wait.

The playbook says, "Buy weak-dollar plays." But does that mean only weak-dollar commodity plays, as in flee-out-of-dollar-into-oil plays? Or weak-dollar plays like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take)? Or weak-dollar plays like gold? Or tech plays because Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) are hugely international?

Or do you bother doing anything at all up here because we are plus-seven on the oscillator and every time we have gotten this overbought in this market, we have come crashing down?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Lock in some profits

Earnings highlights: AIG, HP, AutoZone, Big Lots, MBIA, TiVo and more

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: AIG, HP, AutoZone, Big Lots, MBIA, TiVo and more

Xilinx delivers improved sales guidance -- is the company a buy?

Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX), a tech entity involved in programmable logic and a colleague of companies like Actel (NASDAQ: ACTL) and Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR), issued a business update on Tuesday. Believe it or not, it contained some good news. How about that for a change? I'm sure shareholders were pleased.

According to this news item, Xilinx believes that its revenue picture should be better than previously thought. Sales should drop by somewhere between 13% and 18% for the March quarter on a sequential basis. Management had originally believed that they'd have to report a sequential revenue drop between 15% and 25%. So, yes, there will still be a decline, but hey, if it's less than expected, you gotta take that. It's too bad, though, that the gross margin range wasn't raised. It should still fall between 61% and 63%. If management had raised that as well, then I bet the stock would have closed even higher on the news. It rose almost 4% on better-than-average volume yesterday.

Continue reading Xilinx delivers improved sales guidance -- is the company a buy?

The week in preview: Alcoa, Intel kick off new earnings season

The new earnings season ramps up this week as Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports fourth-quarter results. Last week, the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina announced layoffs and production cuts as a reaction to the economic downturn. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. For 2008, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. The share price has been climbing in recent weeks, but it is 65.6% lower than a year ago.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is also scheduled to report fourth-quarter results this week, one of a handful of tech stocks to do so. The number one semiconductor maker is expected to post earnings down 86.8% to $0.05 per share, and sales of $8.2 billion, down 23.3% from a year ago. Last week, Intel forecast sales for the quarter of $8.2 billion. The full-year numbers are expected to be marginally lower than a year ago, or $0.94 per share on $37.7 billion. Intel only missed earnings estimates in one of the past five quarters. Shares are about $2.00 higher than the 52-week low, but 37.2% lower than a year ago.

Continue reading The week in preview: Alcoa, Intel kick off new earnings season

The week in preview: Mulling over techs, financials

The earnings crunch begins in earnest this coming week, with companies from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) to Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) and Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) scheduled to report results for the quarter just ended. But with the ongoing turmoil in the markets, much attention is on the tech and financial sectors. This week will provide plenty to mull over on both counts.

Wall Street expectations for tech stocks are fairly optimistic. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for chip maker Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR) and software/service company iGate Corp. (NASDAQ: IGTE) to be the sector's biggest earnings gainers of the week. Altera is expected to report earnings of 30 cents per share (up 33.3% from a year ago) on revenue of $355.1 million. Altera had previously forecast flat sales for the quarter, and shares fell to a 52-week low last week. iGate is expected to report earnings of 14 cents per share (up 42.9%) on revenue of $55.6 million. India-based iGate recently spun off its Mastech consulting services. Shares are down 45.0% in the past three months, and also reached a new 52-week low last week.

San Jose-based Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS), on the other hand, is expected to report that net income tumbled 90.4% from a year ago to 4 cents per share, on revenue of $245.6 million. Novellus fell to a 52-week low early last week, and shares are down 44.5% year to date.

Continue reading The week in preview: Mulling over techs, financials

Earnings highlights: Apple, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Southwest, Caterpillar, and others

The earnings crunch is in full swing, and here are a few of the highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Apple, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Southwest, Caterpillar, and others

Xilinx: Shares defining bullish 'flag'

Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) develops and markets integrated circuits that users program themselves to perform specific functions. The firm also offers a broad range of design software helpful in customizing its chips. Clients are primarily original equipment manufacturers in the telecommunications, computer, aerospace, industrial control and networking markets. Agilent (NYSE: A), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) are among the firms using Xilinx devices.

The company had good news for investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 35 cents and revenues of $474.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 32 cents and $463.6 million. Management attributed the solid numbers to strong sales of new products. The company also issued Q4 revenue guidance of about $470-$489 million ($480.64M consensus). XLNX shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Continue reading Xilinx: Shares defining bullish 'flag'

Analyst initiations 5-10-07: COGO, IM, MRVL, RRGB and XLNX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Xilinx, Inc (XLNX), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB), Ingram Micro Inc (IM), Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) and Comtech Group, Inc (COGO) were today's more noteworthy initiations:
  • Deutsche Bank believes upside remains on Xilinx Inc's (NASDQ: XLNX) margins and tax rates, initiating shares with a Buy rating and $38 target.
  • JP Morgan waits for improved new unit volumes and better earnings visibility before getting more constructive on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (NASDAQ: RRGB) and initiated shares with a Neutral rating.
  • Given the lack of catalysts to improve margins above their peers, JP Morgan doesn't expect multiple expansions from Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) in the near-term, assuming shares with a Neutral rating.
  • Deutsche Bank expects Silicon Labratories (NASDAQ:: SLAB) multiples to expand with operating margins, starting shares with a Buy rating and $40 target.
  • Needham believes Comtech Group Inc (NASDAQ: COGO) is uniquely leveraged to benefit from the growth of manufacturing in China and started shares with a Buy rating and $21 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 4-26-07: ARM, GLW, MMM, RAI and WEN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's most noteworthy upgrades were Reynolds American, Inc (RAI), PRA International (PRAI), Wendy's International (WEN), 3M Company (MMM) and PMC-Sierra, Inc (PMCS):
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of Reynolds American Inc (NYSE: RAI) to Neutral from Underweight to reflect the company's solid 2007 outlook and improved cigarette mix.
  • 3M Company (NYSE: MMM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Prudential...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Soleil upgraded the semiconductor sector to Overweight from Underweight, believing a recovery in fundamentals is likely over the next 6 months and expecting shares to outperform over the next 12 to 18 months.
  • First Albany upgraded shares of Xilinx, Inc (NASDAQ: XLNX) to Buy from Neutral to reflect operating leverage and the end of the inventory concern.
  • Wachovia upgraded shares of Agco Corp (NYSE: AG) to Market perform from Outperform.
  • Corning (NYSE: GLW) was upgraded at Goldman to Buy from Neutral with a $31 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Semiconductor demand is moderating

We blogged late last fall about semiconductor stocks fundamentals rolling over. It appears semi management is beginning to whisper more and more of moderating results to analysts:
  • Lehman cuts Micron Technology Inc's (NYSE: MU) estimates and sees losses for the next three quarters. The increase in demand for memory chips due to Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista demanding more memory is not happening.
  • Pacific Crest Securities wrote second quarter chip demand is underwhelming, with notebooks and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii the only bright spots.
  • J.P. Morgan wrote consensus expectations for both the second quarter and all of 2007 are too high and is trimming estimates, The more significant earnings misses could come from Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD), Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and On Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ONNN); with smaller cuts for Texas Instrments Inc (NYSE: TXN), Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM), Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR), Xilinx Inc (NASDAQ: XLNX) and Fairchild Semiconductor International (NYSE: FCS).
We began blogging about a slowdown in semiconductor stocks in November. However, most of this slowdown could be coming to an end. It appears from both National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) and Texas Instruments recent earnings releases that both companies are seeing the industry downturn ending as inventories have been worked down and backlog is beginning to build again.

The other major points we have been making is that we are entering the seasonally weak period for these stocks. So be cautious about jumping in with both feet in the early Spring.

Most likely, the two drivers for these stocks is the Fed lowering rates or the typically seasonal pick up which occurs in late summer. Since the Fed is on hold, there appears to be no need to jump into these stocks yet. Let the bad news hit these stocks and then start bottom fishing.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 11:35 PM

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