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Mailbag: Bailout's effect on gold

Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Lewis,

Interesting times, eh what? Is gold being sold -- as the dollar trips down beneath 106 yen -- to raise cash?

For example, was the hedge fund world heavily invested enough there to make gold vulnerable as the ill effects of Lehman work themselves through the system?

Also, any current thoughts about Golden Star Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GSS), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and the NYSE gold ETF (NYSE: GLD)?

Cheers,
Minyan Bill


MB,

I think you are just seeing gold (and gold stocks) flag a bit here.

Now that we have a deal from Congress, I expect everything is likely going to melt up, but gold and gold equities should rally more (and even make new highs) given the inflationary nature of this deal. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks is likely to just be a bear market rally. This $700 bln will keep the financial system functioning, but it's not a cure-all. It's also going to further cement the stagflationary forces that are pressing in from all sides. That's good for gold but not good for much else.

As for the dollar, I'm not sure we'll see new lows because the G7 will no doubt try and support it, but we could see the DXY move back to its July lows potentially after this bill has passed.

As for thoughts on GSS, KGC, AUY, and GLD, I like them all at these prices.

Prof. Lewis

Golden favorites: streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) and Yamana (AUY)

"The recent pullback in commodity prices has opened up this window of opportunity," says resources expert Larry Edelson who reaffirms his long-term bullishness on gold.

In his Real Wealth newsletter, he explains, "If you think the slowdown in the U.S. economy is impacting China and other emerging markets - ground zero for the natural resources boom - think again." Here, he discusses his favorite gold plays.

"Not only are the Chinese and Indian economies expected to surge more than 9% this year, countless other economies throughout Asia, the former Soviet states and Latin American countries are also growing by leaps and bounds.

"As long as this massive new demand continues, natural resources and commodities will continue to soar And investors who use temporary pull-backs in this long-term bull market stand to multiply their money - over and over again - for years to come.

"You must own some gold in this economic environment. Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom because it is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.

Continue reading Golden favorites: streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) and Yamana (AUY)

Analyst upgrades: BHP, RTP and PRU

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Prudential Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Bernstein upgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe urbanization in China will increase demand for metals.
  • Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) was raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman as they believe the company's exposure to commercial mortgage-backed securities is limited.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Golden gains for Yamana (AUY)

"Gold is the only true hedge against the falling dollar, the unfolding credit crisis, inflation, and geopolitical turmoil," notes resource expert Larry Edelson in Real Wealth. Here's a look at Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY).

"I've been saying for a long time that gold could hit $1,000. Many called me crazy. Now, all of the market fundamentals - from the beleaguered U.S. economy that faces imminent inflation spikes to a battered dollar and global economic uncertainty – point to gold taking off to well above $1,000 an ounce.

"This is great news for our the gold positions in your portfolio, including our newest recommendation, Yamana Gold. Yamana is aToronto-based miner that has operations in both North and South America.

"Last year, the company produced 773,000 ounces of gold. This year, the company expects to boost production to 1.3 million ounces.That's a 68% increase!

"On top of that, if AUY's quarterly profits come in at the expected 22 cents a share when they report earnings on March 25, that would put full-year profits at 77 cents a share -- 1,000% higher than last year! If this happens, and it looks like it will, these shares are primed for a nice upward move."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

The 52-week high club (PEP, ILMN, KGC, AUY)

Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN): Settles patent lawsuit with major rival Affymetrix (NASDAQ: AFFX). Shares trade up to $75.20 against 52-week low of $28.11.

Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC): Price of gold and gold producers just keeps rising. Stock moves up to $22.86 from 52-week low of $9.87.

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY): Gold again. Rises to $16.30 from 52-week low of $8.40.

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP): Soft-drinks sales aren't hurt by recessions, as far as anyone knows. Trades up to $79.79 from 52-week low of $61.89.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The momentum for large-cap gold producers looks very bullish and my top speculative idea for 2008 is Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)," says Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

"Based in Toronto, Canada, Yamana is a large-cap gold-mining company with probably the best exploration portfolio in all of Central and South America.

"Yamana Gold had been heavily battered due to its buyout of Meridian Gold and Northern Orion. With these acquisitions now completed, the overhang of merger uncertainty has been lifted and the stock has sharply rallied off its 52-week low.

"The big picture for Yamana is a great portfolio of first-rate mines in Central and South America, booming earnings, rising positive cash-flow and production costs of $339 per ounce.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

Edelson's new gold plays

Resources expert Larry Edelson has just completed a six week tour of Asia; from his final stop in Dubai, he writes, "Gold is being gobbled up like it's going out of style."

The editor of Real Wealth notes, "In my 30 years in the gold market I have never seen the volume of gold trading and the lust for the precious yellow metal like I saw in Dubai." Here's his latest buys in the sector.

He explains, "The major fundamental forces behind high gold prices haven't changed. The U.S. dollar is very weak in the knees and inflation is rampant, despite what the government's numbers say."

He notes that the U.S. dollar continues to lose value against other major currencies. He points to both private and public debt problems as the root cause, along with troubles in the real estate sector and "political infighting" that is maaking foreign investors "think twice" about putting their money in the U.S.

He forecasts that the dollar's decline will continue, which in turn, will push up inflation. He notes, "All you have to do is look at your monthly bills and regular purchases."

To protect against inflation, he believes the best strategy is to invest in gold. And in this sector, he offers two new mining recommendations.

Continue reading Edelson's new gold plays

Analyst upgrade 4-15-07: ABFS, ALU, AMZN and CAKE upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Arkansas Best Corp (ABFS) and Capital One Financial Corp (COF) were today's more noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR) to Hold from Sell with a $107 target after better-than-expected Q1 results.
  • Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Piper Jaffray, to Hold from Sell at Citigroup, to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen, to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest and to Buy from Hold at BWS Financial.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

China: A shift to gold?

Curtis Hesler, editor of The Professional Timing Service, believes that the recently announced Chinese investment fund will have a significant impact on commodities. The fund, he explains, was developed in order for China to diversify its reserves.

He notes, "The great Chinese reserve fund has now been established, and it is a whopper; they have announced that they will hold $650 billion of their reserves at ready.

Further, he adds, "They will also invest $200 billion to $250 billion a year that they expect to receive hereafter. That is a lot of money!"

So, what will they buy? According to Hesler, "They will certainly spend a lion's share on raw materials and other commodities."

The advisor forecasts, "This money will likely be the engine that will fuel the next major leg in the commodity bull market. China has every intention of being a significant player on the global scene; and to do that, they will need to increase their gold reserves."

Already bullish on gold, the development of the China investment fund for its reserves is an added demand factor supporting his optimistic stance. He notes that some resource experts are estimating that China will need to accumulate 2,000 to 3,000 tons of gold toward this goal.

Among junior gold mining stocks, Hesler owns Gammon Lake (ASE: GRS) and Yamana (NYSE: AUY). Another "solid core metal investment" he adds is Gabelli Global Natural Resources (ASE: GGN), which he points out has a decent dividend and as a closed-end fund, offers a broad-based investment in metals.

As a long-term investor, Hesler argues for patience and suggests that investors should accumulate positions during periods of price weakness. Long-term, however, he says, "I firmly expect to see gold eventually hit $1,600. That will put the mining stocks through the roof."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Gold: Hesler's 'quintessential hard asset'

An estimated 85% of financial success is being invested in the correct asset class, estimates Curtis Hesler, who is confident that the correct asset class for investors today is hard assets.

The editor of The Professional Timing Service uses several proprietary models to determine whether one should be in financial assets or real assets. One of these models is his Annual Asset Allocation Model.

He explains, "Its advice is simple as it will only point us in one of two directions -- financial (paper) assets or real (tangible) assets. The purpose of the model is to tell us which of these two assets offers the best potential reward for the lowest risk."

In recent months, the model has pointed toward real assets, suggesting that the risk of holding paper assets has been high. Hesler notes, "Although trading profits can be had in stocks, financial assets under these circumstances can turn very bad, very quickly -- as the recent market debacle illustrated."

Continue reading Gold: Hesler's 'quintessential hard asset'

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Last updated: October 13, 2008: 12:27 AM

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