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Gold cycle: Seasonal low is due

When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.

In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."

He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.

"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.

"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.

"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Best of breed in the gold sector

With gold trading down sharply from its highs, Keith-Fitzerald offers a special report on gold stocks in Money Morning, highlighting three companies that he consider to be the "very best of the best."

"Gold remains a key profit opportunity -- especially if inflation, or even stagflation, is taking hold. It should also help that economic uncertainty is escalating. However, since the economic outlook has grown more uncertain, we've decided to our recommended list down to just three picks:

"The StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is an ETF that tracks the price of gold directly, making it the simplest way to invest in the yellow metal via an ETF. And with a market cap approaching $17 billion, this fund has ample liquidity.

"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is a Toronto-based company with mostly North American production, as well as properties in South America and Africa, and some copper and zinc add-ons. It has a $38 billion market capitalization, so there's plenty of liquidity.

Continue reading Best of breed in the gold sector

Pullback creates 'ideal opportunity' in gold

"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."

The editor of Real Wealth offers two "core" favorites for those seeking to invest in the sector: streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY). Here is his review.

"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.

"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.

"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.

Continue reading Pullback creates 'ideal opportunity' in gold

Trio of catalysts set to boost gold

"The recent decline in gold from above $1,000 is prompting gold bears to say that the great gold bull market has reversed itself," says Martin Hutchinson who states, "Let me say right now: They're wrong."

In his Money Map Reporter, he explains, "Thanks to three key catalysts, we may well see gold at $1,500 an ounce this year, if not higher." Here's his outlook and a trio of ways to play this trend.

"These three catalysts – worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand for gold, and gold's past performance – have already ignited a powerful rally that's virtually certain to carry gold to much higher price points, despite the breather the rally appears to be taking right now.

"Don't be fooled. Every rally needs a catalyst – something that ignites and then fuels the bullish trend. As noted above, gold has three. Let's take a look at each of them:

1. Monetary policy: More than for any other investment, gold's price depends primarily on the world's monetary policy. When monetary policy is loose, as it was in the 1970s, gold prices soar. When it is tight, as in the 1980s, prices decline sharply.

Continue reading Trio of catalysts set to boost gold

Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

When gold recently moved above $1,000 the Aden Forecast presciently noted that the metals were overbought and forecast a "well deserved breather" for the precious metals.

Now, with the setback in metals prices, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden explain, "We can't stress enough that you should stay invested in the major uptrend, which still has years to run. Don't get left behind or shaken out." Here is their outlook on metals and some favorite mining stocks.

"Are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the
tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it.

"But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why? Basically, the perfect storm has been gathering and it's going to fuel a mega rise that will likely last for years to come.

"Most important is China and other growing nations, which are keeping demand and prices super strong. China's growth has been astounding at over 9% each year for more than 25 years. During that time, China has lifted 300 million people out of poverty and it's quadrupled the average income.

Continue reading Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

The Adens: Best bets in gold & silver

"Will there be a recession or not?" asks Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. In The Aden Forecast they note, "The scales are now tipping to inflation," which they view as bullish for gold and silver.

"Sure, the economy will probably slow down in the months ahead and stagflation is also a likelihood. That is, slower economic growth combined with inflation.

"The Fed and the world's largest central banks are working together in a massive, historical concerted intervention to provide all the money and liquidity that's globally needed to keep things rolling along. Money supply, for instance, is soaring at a 16% growth rate, the most in 47 years.

"The latest producer price figure strongly supported our view since it was the highest in 34 years, showing inflation running at a 38% annualized rate. Since producer prices lead consumer prices, this is a huge red flag that big inflation is coming.

"The new record high in the gold price is telling us the same thing, and so are the record highs in oil and the commodity markets. In other words, if a serious recession were coming, gold and commodities would not be soaring.

"Gold is an inflation barometer and the action in this market alone is signaling that inflation will very likely dominate the economic scene in 2008. Inflation is bad for bond prices. It usually means higher interest rates and this time is not an exception.

Continue reading The Adens: Best bets in gold & silver

Analyst upgrades: TSN, UN, BRKS, AKZOY and YHOO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tyson Foods, Unilever, Brooks Automation, Akzo Nobel and Yahoo! were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) to Buy from Hold on valuation and the potential for protein complex improvement.
  • Goldman upgraded shares of Unilever (NYSE: UN) to Neutral from Sell to reflect the company's diversified product range and growing exposure to developing and emerging markets.
  • Bear Stearns raised its rating on Brooks Automation (NASDAQ: BRKS) to Outperform from Peer Perform. The firm cited the company's compelling valuation and growth drivers.
  • Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at SNS Securities, as they see absolute total return greater than 20%.
  • CIBC upgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer on valuation following the recent pullback and their analysis of Yahoo's non-operating assets. They believe Yahoo's stake in Alibaba Group is now worth about $4/share and raised their target to $31 from $28.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • First Analysis upgraded Spss Inc (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
  • UBS upgraded Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) to Buy from Neutral.
  • WestLB upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Hold from Reduce.
  • HSBC upgraded Posco (NYSE: PKX) to Overweight from Neutral.

Analyst initiations 7-13-07: AUY, BLK, DWA and RNOW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dreamworks Animation (NYSE: DWA), BlackRock (BLK), Mariner Energy (ME) and Franklin Resources (BEN) and RightNow Technologies (RNOW) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Stifel expects Dreamworks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) fundamental outlook for film to improve given a more accommodating home entertainment market, while next-gen DVD format adoption and the introduction of 3D exhibition in theaters creates incremental opportunities for film studios. The firm started shares off with a Buy rating.
  • Wachovia believes BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) is one of the best-positioned managers in both product and geographic perspectives and initiated shares with an Outperform rating.
  • BMO Capital believes Mariner Energy (NYSE: ME) has a number of catalysts that could push shares higher, but feels current trading levels are not attractive. BMO started shares with a Market Perform rating.
  • William Blair views Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) as a premier global firm with an advantage in many attractive international markets and started shares with an Outperform rating.
  • Cantor believes RightNow Tech's (NASDAQ: RNOW) transition creates significant execution risk, initiated shares with a Hold rating...
OTHER INITIATIONS: Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Market highlights for next week: Another Vioxx trial begins for Merck

Hoorah, now that this earnings period is starting to wind down, I can highlight some non-earnings events to look out for next week.

Monday May 14
Tuesday May 15
Wednesday May 16
Thursday May 17
Friday May 18

No fool's gold in Yamana's earnings report

Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) recently released FY 2006 earnings as well as an update on its latest mining operation. Overall, the news is very positive. Yamana Gold operates mines in Honduras, Argentina, Nicaragua and Brazil, including its flagship Chapada mine in Goias, Brazil.

Processing operations at Chapada commenced in November 2006, ahead of schedule. The ore processed thus far has been above estimate in terms of amount and higher in grade. Copper in concentrate is 27.7-28.4% in grade. Gold is 26.3-29.1 grams per ton. At these numbers, Yamana expects to produce 180,000-200,000 ounces of gold and 130-145,000,000 pounds of copper in FY 2007, both above estimates.

Because the Chapada mine came into production earlier than scheduled, Yamana already received its first payment of almost $27 million for the first concentrate shipment. Larger concentrate shipments for both copper and gold will be shipped by the end of 1Q 2007. Presently, spot market prices for both gold and copper remain favorable for Yamana.

Continue reading No fool's gold in Yamana's earnings report

Analyst downgrades 3-22-07: Aeropostale, Motorola & Alcatel-Lucent downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Some of the more notable downgrades today include Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), AstraZeneca plc (AZN), GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) and Motorola, Inc (MOT):
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Neutral from Buy on integration issues, as the firm does not expect a sales recovery before Q3.
  • JP Morgan cut both AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) and GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.
  • RBC downgraded Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) to Sector Perform from Outperform; following Motorola's pre-announcement, the firm expects shares to trade sideways for the balance of the year.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Bank Of America downgraded Aeropostale, Inc (NYSE: ARO) to Neutral from Buy with a $42 target based on valuation.
  • RF Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ: RFMD) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC citing the risk from Motorola; the firm believes RFMD's story outside of Motorola remains strong and consistent but sees downside to FY08 targets given MOT's contribution to RFMD's top line.
  • Raymond James downgraded Yamana Gold Inc (NYSE: AUY) to Outperform from Strong Buy. UBS also downgraded Yamana to Reduce from Neutral.
  • Citigroup cut Allegheny Energy, Inc (NYSE: AYE) to Hold from Buy with a $53 target.
  • Lehman downgraded International Rectifier Corp (NYSE: IRF) to Equal Weight from Overweight and a $40 target.
  • Raytheon Co (NYSE: RTN) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman based on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 2-1-07: Coldwater started with an Underperform

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc (ENDP) and Coldwater Creek (CWTR) were today's most notable initiations:
  • First Albany initiated Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: ENDP) with a Strong Buy rating and $41.25 target; the firm believes the company's strong balance sheet can be used to strengthen the pipeline through the acquisition of product rights or companies.
  • Thomas Weisel started Coldwater Creek Inc (NASDQ: CWTR) with an Underperform rating based on the fourth-quarter miss, and believes appreciation could be limited here.

OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Yamana Gold Inc (NYSE: AUY) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating and $20 target at CIBC, explaining that Yamana's production profile is expected to expand by 150% in the next two years, making it one of the fastest-growing gold companies in North America.
  • Oppenheimer considers PF Chang's China Bistro's (NASDAQ: PFCB) valuation attractive and started the restaurant chain with a Buy rating and $53 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Top Picks 2007: Out-of-favor favorites in energy and metals

In my recent posts, I have been reviewing the most popular sectors for the coming year, according the the newsletter advisors who participated in the Top Picks from 2007 report. In my last post, I highlighted stocks in healthcare, tech, and telecom. Today, I want to review the resource sectors -- energy and metals -- that remain very popular among advisors, despite being out-of-favor in recent trading.

First, let's look at the metals, where gold remains a popular choice. Sy Harding chose ASA Bermuda, a closed-end gold fund, Curtis Hesler selected Yamana, and Martin Weiss opted for Kinross.

Pamela Aden selected the bullion tracking exchange-traded fund, the streetTracks Gold Trust; Mark Leibovit also chose streettracks Gold. Meanwhile, Mary Anne Aden chose the iShares Silver Trust.

Outside of the precious metals, Tom Bishop chose copper play, Taseko Mines, while Neil Macneale selected steel stocks.

Equally as volatile as metals -- and currently out-of-favor -- has been energy. The energy sector has been high on the list of Top Picks for the past 4 years. This year, however, there is a noticeable shift.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Out-of-favor favorites in energy and metals

Top Picks 2007: Curtis Hesler mines for gold at Yamana

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Yamana Gold (ASE: AUY) is a favorite speculative pick for 2007 from Curtis Hesler, editor of The Professional Timing Service.

He explains, "I believe that gold made a significant breakout in early December, officially ending the correction begun in May. The correction resulted in a triangle formation with the lows all about $560 and the highs successively lower.

"The last time gold formed a triangle like the recent May to November pattern was in 1979. When prices broke out of the triangle pattern in the fall of 1979, gold went straight from $400 to about $875 by January 1980. We are likely setting up for a similar run now, and the dollar is confirming this.

"A doubling of today's price does not require a stretch of the imagination. The gold-to-oil ratio is currently about 10, but it is rising. If it hits the long term average of 16, gold would be $1,000 with crude at $63. If crude were to go back over $70, and the ratio were 16 the price of gold would be $1,120.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Curtis Hesler mines for gold at Yamana

Cramer goes for Yamana (AUY)

On tonight's episode of MAD MONEY on CNBC, host Jim Cramer discussed a stock that he thinks should be a gold medal winner -- Yamana Gold (AUY).

This isn't Cramer's fist pony ride on Yamana because he has been touting this name many times. he was positive just last night, two weeks ago, two months ago, 3 months ago. The stock is still at a 52-week high even though the commodity isn't.

He said if you already own it, don't be a pig, but you can still buy it of you do not own it. Barrick (ABX) and Newmont (NEM) are the old men in the sector, and Yamana's operation in Brazil is stable.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:01 AM

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