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Analyst upgrades: EBAY, EXPE, NOK and YRCW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Expedia (EXPE), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Fiserv (FISV), and select radio stocks were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations for U.S. bookings growth and margin stabilization.
  • YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Neutral from Underperform based on valuation.
  • Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC following the CheckFree (CKFR) acquisition.
  • Banc of America upgraded Citadel Broadcasting (NYSE: CDL), Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR) and Entercom Comm (NYSE: ETM) to Neutral from Sell as they believe it is time to cover short positions with the expected Q3 weakness likely priced into shares. They caution that this upgrade is not a buy signal as downside risk remains...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Baird raised Lear (NYSE: LEA) To Outperform from Neutral.
  • Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Pacific Crest upgraded shares of eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

FedEx cuts fuel surcharge 25% amid soaring energy prices

FedEx Freight and FedEx National LTL, two units of Fed Ex Corp (NYSE: FDX) have cut their standard Less-Than-Truckload fuel surcharge by 25% this morning, effective immediately. The drop in surcharge rates comes at an unexpected time, the summer. According to the Department of Energy, the average U.S. retail price for diesel fuel hit its highest point last week since September of 2006.

Logic suggests that FedEx would lose money on this announcement. However, management believes the move will provide them an advantage in the market. Douglas G. Duncan, President and CEO of FedEx Freight said, "By significantly reducing our fuel surcharges, we offer immediate and long-term assistance to shippers who are facing both a challenging economy and volatile fuel prices." Both units update fuel surcharges on a weekly basis based on prices published by the DoE.

While the cuts mean that FedEx Freight will assume more of the fuel costs, Duncan hopes that additional volume would make up for "a great deal of that." This additional volume Duncan talks of has to come from somewhere. FedEx has some serious competition in the LTL market, including United Parcel Services' (NYSE: UPS) Overnite Corp, Con-way (NYSE: CNW) and the largest of the truckers, YRC International Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

It looks like FedEx struck first blood in the battle for additional market share. Shares of FedEx are only down 14 cents today, to $115.53 in mid-day trading. In order to compete, look for Overnite, Con-Way and other LTL companies to cut their surcharge rates after the summer, when diesel prices are expected to taper off.

Option update 6-5-07: YRC Worldwide spikes on LBO speculation

YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) -- implied volatility and call spike on LBO speculation.
YRCW, a transportation holding company with brands including Yellow Transportation, Roadway, Reimer Express, Meridian IQ, New Penn, USF Holland and USF Reddaway, is recently up $0.49 to $40.03 on LBO speculation. YRCW will be speaking at Merrill Lynch's Transportation Conference next week. YRCW has a market cap of $2.2 billion with $1 billion in debt. YRCW reported quarterly March 2007 revenue of $2.3 billion. YRCW call option volume of 6,382 contracts compares to put volume of 207 contracts. YRCW June option implied volatility is at 44, July is at 36 above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Biomet (NASDAQ: BMET) -- implied volatility-risk increases into June 8th shareholder vote.
BMET a designer, manufacturer and marketer of joint replacement products announced on 12/18/06 a consortium including the Blackstone Group, Goldman Sachs and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts will purchase BMET for $44 a share in cash. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended BMET holders vote down the $10.9 billion private equity deal. BMET shareholders are to vote on 6/8/07. Indiana state law requires a 75% vote for the acquisition to be approved. BMET over all option implied volatility of 17 is above its 5-month average of 12 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst initiations 3-06-07: eBay, Amazon.com & YRC Worldwide initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), Baidu.com, Inc (BIDU), an several e-commerce names were today's more notable initiations:
  • Prudential started YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) with an Underweight rating and $41 target. The firm said recent organizational changes could be a distraction in what it expects to be a challenging first-half of 2007.
  • Susquehanna views Baidu.com Inc (NASDAQ: BIDU) as a strategic holding in its China portfolio and expects the company's massive brand value to drive continuous growth; shares were initiated at Susquehanna with a Positive rating.
  • Oppenheimer initiated three e-commerce names today:
    • eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) was initiated with a Buy rating and $38 target
    • Overstock.com, Inc (NASDAQ: OSTK) and Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) were initiated with Neutral ratings.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • In addition to YRC Worldwide, Prudential initiated several companies in the transportation sector:
    • Con-Way Inc (NYSE: CNW) was started with an Underweight rating and $47 target
    • Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) were initiated with Overweight ratings
    • Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $47 target.
  • Jefferies initiated Forest Oil Corp (NYSE: FST) with a Buy rating and $42 target.
  • Citigroup believes aQuantive, Inc (NASDAQ: AQNT) will be one of the key beneficiaries of the strong secular growth in online advertising and they note that shares are trading in the lower half of its 52-week range; shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 2-05-07: YRC Worldwide downgraded on valuation

MOST NOTEWORTHY: YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), AutoLiv Inc (ALV) and Chevron Corp (CVX) topped today's lists of downgrades:
  • YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW) was downgraded by Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform and to Underperform from Neutral at Baird, both citing valuation.
  • AutoLiv Inc (NYSE: ALV) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup with a $55 target to reflect North American production schedules concerns as well as the possibility of a slower-than-anticipated share buyback program.
  • Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $65 target, citing valuation.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Pali Capital downgraded Warner Music Group Corp (NYSE: WMG) to Sell from Neutral, with a $19 target. The firm believes estimates are too aggressive and Warner shares are now overvalued.
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) to Neutral from Overweight, citing valuation.
  • Sanders Morris downgraded Playboy Enterprises (NYSE: PLA) to Hold from Buy, as they believe there is little visibility in the marketplace as to the timing of a Time Warner-based (TWX) SVOD agreement. The broker thinks management will issue below the consensus' 2007 guidance, or none at all, which they think will trigger bearish sentiment.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 1-16-07: Nokia gets the call

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nokia Corp (NOK), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings (XMSR) topped today's list of upgrades.
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of Nokia Corp ADS (NYSE: NOK) to Buy from Neutral and added the company to their Conviction Buy List. Goldman believes Nokia's profit cycle has bottomed and shares could rebound from current levels. In addition, the broker expects Nokia to report solid fourth-quarter earnings.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings 'A' (NASDAQ: XMSR) to Overweight from Neutral as they believe retail and competition fears are largely understood and that both companies will grow subscribers due to deals with automakers.

OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Wachovia upgraded YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Outperform to Market Perform citing the trucker's recent realignment actions in its regional and long-haul LTL's, the timing cycle to buy trucking stocks and valuation.
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of FedEx Corp (NYSE: FDX) to Overweight from Neutral, citing valuation.
  • Prudential upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch Co 'A' (NYSE: ANF) to Overweight from Neutral and raised their target to $89 from $66, citing valuation and easier comps.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 02:40 AM

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