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Bernanke: Emerging Markets Need to Address Capital Flows

Amid the political and social uprisings in the Middle East, and union protests in the U.S., a recent speech by a pivotal U.S. policy maker received little attention, but it's one that investors should review.

In a speech before the recent G-20 meeting, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged emerging market nations to address the flood of money streaming into their markets.

Continue reading Bernanke: Emerging Markets Need to Address Capital Flows

Gold and Silver March to New Highs

gold pricesPrecious metals moved higher today, led by gold, which set another record high. Here are the numbers:

  • December gold futures are trading at $1,328.20, per ounce, up $11.40 (as of 8:00 am EDT)
  • December silver is up 23 cents to $22.27 per ounce.
  • October platinum is trading at $1,681.7 per ounce, up $14.
  • December Palladium is up $7.20 to $568.50 per ounce.

Continue reading Gold and Silver March to New Highs

China Will Support the Euro and Euro Bonds

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao issued a statement over the weekend confirming his country's support for the euro and euro bonds. "I have made clear that China supports a stable euro," the premier said, according to BBC News.

China vowed not to cut its investment in euro bonds. Not only that, China promises to buy Greek bonds when they are issued again.

This could be a game changer for Europe. Up to now, Europe has been struggling with high deficits and high unemployment in many of the Eurozone countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. With China's support, however, we'll probably see a return of confidence to the region. And that confidence comes at a crucial time.

Continue reading China Will Support the Euro and Euro Bonds

Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

One disastrous international trade policy of the 1930s concerned tariffs: nations increased tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries; when applied universally, it resulted in declining export sales and trade volumes. Tariffs made the Great Depression worse.

Now, it appears, nations are on the verge of implementing another counter-productive policy -- manipulating currencies -- and if public officials are not careful, a similar downward spiral in international trade could occur.

Continue reading Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

China Economist Calls for Increased Domestic Consumption

A member of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which announced Monday that the U.S. recession ended in June 2009, told The New York Times (NYT) the U.S. economy must grow at a 2.5% rate just to keep the unemployment rate, currently 9.6%, constant.

By extension, the world's largest economy will need upwards of 2.7% U.S. GDP growth annually -- probably closer to 3% growth -- to substantially reduce unemployment.

How about getting millions of China's new middle class to contribute to that growth? Li Daokui, an economist and an adviser to the People's Bank of China, agrees, at least regarding consumption by China's consumers.

Continue reading China Economist Calls for Increased Domestic Consumption

U.S. House May Use 'a Stick' to Nudge China on Yuan

In upcoming talks with China, the United States will try for what seems like the 1,000th time to encourage China to let its currency, the yuan, appreciate quicker, even as a growing list of sponsors add their name to a U.S. House bill, The New York Times (NYT) reported, that would require the Obama administration to impose duties or other trade barriers in lieu of currency action by Beijing.

China keeps the yuan in a tight trading band, arguing that it must keep the yuan valued at a low level to protect embryonic companies and sectors.

The United States argues that the yuan's artificially-low value unnaturally draws in trade revenue via cheap exports that, under a market-value yuan, would flow to other countries.

Continue reading U.S. House May Use 'a Stick' to Nudge China on Yuan

Will China Surpass the U.S. as the Economic Superpower in Seven Years?

China superpower China is developing fast and, even though it has some issues with human rights, pollution and corruption, people have been speculating that it could be the next global super power.

China has a population of 1.3 billion, which is four times the U.S. population of 308 million. Simple math dictates that if four Chinese people can match one U.S. person in productivity, China will surpass the U.S. in production.

Continue reading Will China Surpass the U.S. as the Economic Superpower in Seven Years?

China's Yuan Move: A Start

Now that China has agreed to a modest appreciation of the yuan, should investors expect more of the same in the quarters ahead?

At this juncture, no. The yuan's record high of 6.7980 yuan to the dollar reached Tuesday represents just a minor adjustment in Beijing's monetary policy, and that's what investors should look forward to: an incremental and very slow effort by Beijing to let the yuan appreciate, with limits.

How much will China let the yuan appreciate in a year? Perhaps 5% a year. The aforementioned may not seem like much but it does represent a Beijing response to international political pressure, primarily from the United States and the European Union.

Continue reading China's Yuan Move: A Start

Oil Trades Above $79 per Barrel on China's Currency Move

Oil is denominated in US dollars. The Chinese move to let the yuan appreciate would make oil imports to China cheaper. Speculators were betting on China to increase oil demand based on the currency change.

Traders took the Chinese currency move and ran with it bidding up the price of oil to over $79.00 per barrel. August US crude futures traded at $78.87 per barrel, up $1.33. August Brent crude futures were up $1.28 to $79.50 per barrel.

Continue reading Oil Trades Above $79 per Barrel on China's Currency Move

China Vows Slow, Tempered Change to Exchange Rate

Saturday, China signaled that it would abandon its currency peg against the U.S. dollar.

Then on Sunday, China's central bank said there would be no significant appreciation in the renminbi (the currency of the People's Republic of China) against the dollar. What's interesting is that this statement came one week before the G20 meeting on Toronto.

Continue reading China Vows Slow, Tempered Change to Exchange Rate

Geithner: China's Yuan Policy Hindering Global Recovery

A key public official in the world's largest economy has turned-up-the-heat a notch regarding China's fixed-rate yuan currency.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in prepared Capitol Hill testimony Thursday, said China's exchange-rate policy is preventing more-balanced global economic growth.

"The distortions caused by China's exchange rate spread far beyond China's borders and are an impediment to the global re-balancing we need," Geithner said. Allowing the yuan to float more-freely would enable China to pursue "a more effective, independent monetary policy, which is particularly important now, with China's economy facing a risk of inflation in goods and in asset prices."

Continue reading Geithner: China's Yuan Policy Hindering Global Recovery

IMF Calls Appreciation of China's Yuan 'Highly Desirable'

Add the International Monetary Fund to the list of nations, institutions, and officials calling for China to let its currency appreciate.

The IMF, in its revised World Economic Outlook, said an appreciation of China's currency, "appears highly desirable on its own."

The group also said a shift in China's economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption, along with structural measures to decrease savings, would be preferred, as well.

Continue reading IMF Calls Appreciation of China's Yuan 'Highly Desirable'

Serious Money: The Cost of Pushing Chinese Yuan Higher

"Be careful what you wish for" goes the ancient Chinese proverb. The United States government, pushed and prodded by its industrial leaders to get the Chinese to raise the value of the Yuan, should heed these wise words.

The goal, of course, is to make U.S. goods and services cheaper, thereby improving the balance of trade. The problem is that it makes everything cheaper.

It is true that it would support the remaining manufacturing base, software companies, commodities and consulting services. However, this is but a portion of what we have to offer.

What happens if the Yuan increases by 20% against the dollar, and they decide to buy International Business Machines (IBM) the company, not just IBM mainframes? This is not so far fetched. Lenovo bought the ThinkPad notebook computer division from IBM and now it sells Lenovo ThinkPads to us. They would be able to buy IBM 20% cheaper than you or I could buy it.

Continue reading Serious Money: The Cost of Pushing Chinese Yuan Higher

Survey Forecasts China to Let Yuan Rise by July

China may allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate versus the dollar by June 30 to check inflation, according to a new Bloomberg survey.

In the survey, 12 respondents said China's central bank will allow the yuan to float freely this quarter, while five expect it to occur by September 30. The median estimate for the yuan's strengthening was a 3.1% appreciation to 6.62 yuan to the dollar by the end of 2010.

Continue reading Survey Forecasts China to Let Yuan Rise by July

Hank Paulson Says Currency Flexibility Would Benefit China

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, is on the wires again, this time underscoring that a flexible currency for China would be in China's interest.

"I believe very strongly that it is in China's interest to have currency flexibility, to keep moving the renminbi," Paulson said at the Boao Forum for Asia, using another name for the Chinese currency, Bloomberg News reported. "It gives the government a very valuable and I think it is going to become an increasingly necessary policy tool to deal with inflation."

Continue reading Hank Paulson Says Currency Flexibility Would Benefit China

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 11:37 PM

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