Analyst Upgrades

• Chesapeake (CHK) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Biogen (BIIB) and Regeneron (REGN) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Caribou Coffee (CBOU) to outperform from neutral and Encore Energy (ENP) to neutral from underperform at RW Baird.
• Fluor (FLR) to market perform from underperform at BMO Capital.
• Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Saks (SKS) and Zale (ZLC) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Even with the rebound in the economy, the problems at Zale (ZLC) continue. The jewelry chain has posted a string of losses over the past couple years and is having liquidity issues. Keep in mind that the company recently indicated that there may not be enough cash flow to meet the operating needs for 2010.

So to deal with the situation, Zale hired investment bank, Peter J. Solomon, which has a strong background in turnarounds.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) reported solid Q2 numbers despite competition from store brands.
• DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) missed Q4 expectations, sending shares lower.
• First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) said Q4 profit more than doubled due to strong demand.
• Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) posted a lower-than-expected profit on soft sales and lower margins.
• Heidrick & Struggles International Inc. (NASDAQ: HSII) earnings and revenue declined in Q4.
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) earnings beat low expectations even as revenue continued to decline.

If you made a bet on the specialty retailers leading up to the first $600 taxpayer rebate stimulus package, you got hammered.

Talk about a government plan backfiring big time.

That $300 billion in checks that fell out of the sky from government helicopters back in the March to May timeframe didn't find its way to the malls at all.

Instead, people paid down credit card debt, and tuition, medical and other bills, leaving little for spending on non-essentials.

The result was a litany of store closings nationwide, with several old-line, brand-name retailers going out of business.

It's game over for names like Circuit City (OTC: CCTYQ), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), J. Jill, Wickes Furniture, Levitz, Bombay, Linens 'n Things, Movie Gallery, Wilson Leather, KB Toys and The Sharper Image.

Traders that leveraged into darling names, like hedge fund idol Eddie Lampert's Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), got smoked. Shares of SHLD were trading at $105 when the checks when out. Today the stock is around $40.

Even Costco (NASDAQ: COST) -- the obvious slam dunk, aside from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- got slammed, falling from $75 to $45 following the so-called stimulus package.

The earnings season is beginning to wind down as we have passed the halfway mark of the quarter and the holiday season begins in earnest next week with Thanksgiving in the United States.

Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is anticipated by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters to be one of the biggest earnings gainers among companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week. The oil tanker fleet operator is expected to post third-quarter earnings of $1.97 per share, 86.8% higher than in the same period a year ago, on revenues of $399.5 million (+44.6%). Frontline missed estimates by 6.4% in the previous quarter, and the consensus recommendation by analysts is to hold FRO. While Motley Fool likes its robust dividend, Jim Cramer said in a recent Lightning Round that he prefers rival Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE: NAT). Shares have fallen 52.9% in the past three months, and reached a 52-week low of $25.00 on Friday.

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) is also expected to be among the week's biggest earnings gainers. Analysts are looking for the semiconductor chip maker to report a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $0.44 per share, 31.8% higher than a year ago, on revenues of $661.7 million (+2.0%). Analog Devices has beat estimates in three of the past five quarters, but only missed by 1.3% in the previous quarter. Analysts on average recommend buying ADI, which has a forecast long-term EPS growth rate of 17.3%, which better than the S&P 500 and that of rival Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN). Shares sank to a multiyear low of $16.23 on Friday, and are down 41.1% in the past three months.

Results for the tech stocks in last week's preview were a mixed bag, some beats, some misses, some in line. By and large, expectations for tech companies reporting results this week remain high, though. Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating in the way of earnings, as compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF): $1.48 EPS (+73.0%) on sales of $1.3 billion (+171.0%)
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL): $0.21 EPS (+71.4%) on sales of $836.7 million (+27.4%)
• Solera Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SLH): $0.29 EPS (+51.7%) on sales of $137.0 million (+11.8%)
• Applied Signal Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: APSG): $0.14 EPS (+42.9%) on sales of $46.4 million (+17.4%)
• China Finance Online Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JRJC): $0.14 EPS (+42.6%) on sales of $13.3 million (+131.5%)
• OSI Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIS): $0.38 EPS (+36.8%) on sales of $162.0 million (+6.0%)
• LaBarge Inc. (AMEX: LB): $0.27 EPS (+33.3%) on sales of $71.6 million (+10.4%)
• Esterline Technologies Corp. (NYSE: ESL): $0.69 EPS (+11.6%) on sales of $374.6 million (+14.8%)
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL): $0.36 EPS (+11.1%) on sales of $15.9 billion (+7.8%)
• HEICO Corp. (NYSE: HEI): $0.46 EPS (+13.0%) on sales of $147.1 million (+10.5%)
• Daktronics Inc. (NASDAQ: DAKT): $0.17 EPS (flat) on sales of $141.5 million (+17.0%)
• Novell Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL): $0.05 EPS (flat) on sales of $241.4 million (-0.7%)
• Omnivision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI): $0.29 EPS (-17.1%) on sales of $172.5 million (-0.4%)
• Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGM): $0.39 EPS (-18.8%) on sales of $58.7 million (+37.9%)

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In December, Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) disclosed questionable transactions in its telecom and power generation businesses totaling about $600M. Now that figure is estimated to be about four times that, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) new video game Halo 3 has generated about $170M in sales on the first day, according to the Wall Street Journal, setting a new record in the games industry.
• Hedge fund Citadel Investment has disclosed it now owns 2.6M shares of Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) for a 5.3 % stake in the company, or more than three times Citadel's position when it was last disclosed on June 30, reported Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column.
• The Financial Times reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) is planning to expand it's staff by 33%, with most of the hiring in Europe.

OTHER PAPERS:

• A U.S. senator is asking Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) to explain payments the company has allegedly made to doctors, reported the New York Times.

WEBSITES:

• According to multiple sources, IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) has started downsizing its mortgage operations by offering voluntary severance packages to an undisclosed number of employees, reported TheTruthAboutMortgage.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Bear Stearns (BSC), Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Merrill downgraded Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Neutral from Buy to reflect greater earnings risk stemming from the slowdown in securitization and mortgage. Merrill also finds it "inevitable" that revenue from underwriting and advising on takeovers will slow.

• Stanford downgraded shares of Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) to Sell from Hold as they believe the premium valuation is unjustified given the Lummus acquisition.

• Merrill Lynch cut Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) to Sell from Neutral based on slowing secular growth...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman downgraded Zale (NYSE: ZLC) to Sell from Neutral.

• PrivateBancorp (NASDAQ: PVTB) was cut from JP Morgan's Focus List.

• Banc of America downgraded Maxim Integrated (NASDAQ: MXIM) to Neutral from Buy.

• Stanford cut Oceaneering Int'l (NYSE: OII) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The deals and general craziness of Black Friday have already been well-covered in this space, so I thought it might be interesting to turn your attention to the actual stock reactions. My intentions were simple enough (but aren't they always?): grab a list of retail stocks and calculate the returns from the close on Wednesday, November 22, through this morning. Sorting the list would give a quick (but early) overview of how the Street was reacting to the "day."

I have ample data manipulation tools at my disposal, so I figured this to be an easy task. What I didn't count on was not being able to find what I considered to be a satisfactory list of retail stocks. The lists I found were either too broad or too narrow. I wanted the usual suspects like Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), and Gap (NYSE:GPS), while also picking up some of the smaller players like Bebe Stores (NASDAQ:BEBE) and Chico's FAS (NYSE:CHS). Additionally I wanted to capture some of the brands like Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) and dELiA*s (NASDAQ:DLIA), while excluding consumer goods producers and fast food restaurants.

Unable to find a list that suited my (admittedly arbitrary) desires, I began to handpick names and compile a list of 72 stocks. The graph below shows the top and bottom performing stocks through noon today.



Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), Pier One (NYSE:PIR), and Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ:CWTR) are the weakest stocks, while Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), American Eagle Outfitters (NASDAQ:AEOS), and Jo-Ann Stores (NYSE:JAS) are the strongest.

As you can infer from the graph, the bulk of the returns are flat to lower as two of the "best performing" stocks, Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) and Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), show a loss. In other words, buying just ahead of Black Friday doesn't seem like it would have been a good short-term trading strategy. Going forward though, I would expect to see some stocks distinguish themselves and separate from the pack. With my list now created (and saved!) it should be much easier to track. If there is interest in this, I can post periodic updates.

Nick Perry is an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.