Today was a nice finish for a volatile weak. Ben Bernanke talked down the economy and talked down inflation, making Wall Street push out the chances of a rate hike further and further out. Oil fell over $3.00 as US-Russian tensions are at least a tad less and after the US Dollar gained ground today. Today's unofficial closing bell levels are as follows:
Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) was a very unusual stock today. We saw major call option trading activity in the stock, making some wonder if this stock was in play. Shares were up in today's final minutes.
Rival home improvement chains Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Not surprisingly, given the ongoing housing slump, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect both companies to post earnings lower than in the same period a year ago. For Home Depot, that's 61 cents per share, down 20.8%, and for Lowe's, 56 cents per share, down 16.4%. Meanwhile, cabinet maker American Woodmark Corp. (NASDAQ: AMWD), for whom Home Depot and Lowe's are major distributors, is also expected to report lower earnings: 11 cents per share, down 67.6%.
The presidential campaigns have prompted much discussion of energy policy and alternative energy sources. Some solar-energy-related concerns are scheduled to report this week, and expectations seem to be high. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is expected to report 81 cents per share earnings, up 67.9%; ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is expected to post earnings of 32 cents per share, up 62.5%; and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) is expected to have earnings of 32 cents per share, up 21.9%. Even China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSUN) is expected to have swung to a profit of 3 cents per share, from a per-share loss of 14 cents a year ago.
San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.
Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.
The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.
Monday, May 19
The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.
Day one of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Management Advisory Committees meeting: Purdue Pharma's NDA for Oxycontin.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) to report Q1 earnings; conference call Tuesday at 10:00am.
Tuesday, May 6
Day two of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Mgmt Advisory Committees meeting: Cephalon's (NASDAQ:CEPH) sNDA for Fentora.
Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 12:00pm.
Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) shares are trading higher today on stronger overall sales despite a disappointing same-store sales reading. The company reported a 3% decline in March same-store sales, worse than the 2.9% decline predicted by analysts. However, total sales increased by 11%. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ZUMZ.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.99 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $13.26 in March. ZUMZ opened this morning at $17.74. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.37 and a high of $18.77. As of 12:35, ZUMZ is trading at $18.20, up 1.66 (10.0%). The chart for ZUMZ is bullish and deteriorating slightly.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $12.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just four months as long as ZUMZ is above $12.50 at August expiration. Zumiez would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
ZUMZ hasn't been below $13 at all in the past year and has shown support around $16 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy continues to decline, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find around $15, where it bottomed out over the past month.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ZUMZ.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Anworth Mortgage, MFA Mortgage, New Star Asset Management and Saks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Anworth Mortgage (NYSE: ANH) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect lower book value estimates based on the widening in agency spreads.
Deutsche Bank downgraded New Star Asset Management (OTC: NWSAF) to Sell from Buy, as they are negative on the company's business model and growth prospects in the current environment.
Saks (NYSE: SKS) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America as they believe the high-end is slowing.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman downgraded Lonmin Plc (OTC: LNMIY) to Neutral from Buy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: W.W. Grainger, American Express and Microsoft were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Baird downgraded W.W. Grainger Inc (NYSE: GWW) to Neutral from Outperform, citing concerns regarding the the federal lawsuit accusing the company of overcharging the U.S. Government.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect their assumption for a weaker economy.
RBC Capital downgraded Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) rejection of its $31/share bid and a counteroffer of $40/share. The firm expects a deal to get done between $35.00-$40.00 per share, resulting in increased dilution.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: WellCare Health, Beacon Power, Tuesday Morning, West Pharmaceutical Services and Vectren were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of WellCare Health (NYSE: WCG) to Buy from Hold, as they believe the investigation could most likely result in fines as opposed to the loss of contracts with the company's government customers.
Merriman raised its rating on Beacon Power (NASDAQ: BCON) to Buy from Neutral, as they believe the company is well-positioned for significant penetration of the growing frequency regulation markets.
Piper upgraded shares of Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ: TUES) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's sales and margins trends are stabilizing.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Vectren (NYSE: VVC) to Buy from Hold, as they believe 2008 will be an inflection point with the share issuance and rate relief aiding earnings.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Roche (OTC: RHHBY) to its Conviction Buy List.
Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at McAdams, Wright.
Thomas Weisel upgraded MasterCard (NYSE: MA) to Market Weight from Underweight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pharmacopeia, Zumiez, Norfolk Southern and OccuLogix were today's noteworthy upgrades:
CIBC upgraded Pharmacopeia (NASDAQ: PCOP) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, as they believe its lead cardiovascular drug DARA has the potential to become an important new therapy for hypertension and diabetic nephropathy.
Think Equity upgraded shares of Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Buy from Accumulate to reflect the company's strong same store sales growth.
Caris upgraded shares of OccuLogix (NASDAQ: OCCX) to Above Average from Average, as they believe weakness in the stock creates a buying opportunity. The firm believes the stock has dropped due to concerns about the company's cash position, but thinks the current stock price underestimates the revenue potential of the company's assets.
OTHER UPGRADES:
BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Applix, Time Warner, Apple and Level 3 Communications were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Applix Inc (NASDAQ: APLX) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at First Albany and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey following the acquisition by Cognos Inc (NASDAQ: COGN).
Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) was downgrade to Neutral from Buy at Pali Capital. The firm has lost faith in Time Warner's executive management team and Board of Directors and feels the outlook for AOL is concerning.
Gabelli downgraded Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares to Hold from Buy on iPhone concerns and valuation as they view the iPhone price cut as an indication that sales are not living up to management's expectations.
Buckingham Research downgraded shares of Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Underperform from Neutral citing deterioration in demand for some key products.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Lehman Brothers.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY) to Sell from Hold.
Zumiez Inc (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
If your idea of the best way to travel involves an Arbor Fish longboard, or a Burton Chopper, then there is an outfit in Everett, Washington that has your basics and all your accessories, too.
Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is a mall-based specialty retailer of sports-related apparel and equipment. Apparel offerings carry such brand names as Billabong, Burton, Hurley and Quiksilver, as well as private labels. The equipment includes skateboards, snowboards, boots, bindings, and miscellaneous novelties. Stores cater to young people, between the ages of 12 and 24. The firm operates 266 outlets, in 22 states.
Zumiez pleased investors last week, when it announced Q2 EPS of 11 cents and revenues of $82 million. Analysts had been expecting 8 cents and $79.3 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 97-99 cents (97 cent consensus). The news helped pop the shares out of a mid-August "cup" into the late August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."
Brokers recommend the shares with five "strong buys," four "buys" and four "holds." Analysts see a 29% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The ZUMZ Sales Growth rate (46.95%), EPS Growth rate (83.33%), Return on Assets (14.03%), Return on Investment (19.61%) and Return on Equity (22.12%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 91% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $20.00 and $48.10. A stop-loss of $39.00 looks good here.
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been expecting 8 cents and $79.3 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 97-99 cents (97 cent consensus). The news helped pop the shares out of a mid-August "cup" into the late August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."
Fog clearing - maybe. Clear skies - no! GE, JNJ, MRK, PG, RTN, WFC
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A fighting chance for the credit markets.
Should you sell into today's rally? Yes, if you think there are more surprises to come (I do)
